算一算，要偿还日本贷款，印度第一条高铁每天要跑多少趟

Bullet train will need 100 trips daily to be financially viable: Study

研究：要经济上可行，高铁需要每天跑100趟

AHMEDABAD: The proposed bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will have to ferry 88,000 - 118,000 passengers per day, or undertake 100 trips daily, for the Railways to keep it financially viable, according to a report by Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIM-A).

The report, titled, "Dedicated High Speed Railway (HSR) Networks in India: Issues in Development," states that if the Railways set the ticket price at Rs 1500 for 300km drive per person fifteen years after the operation, it will have to ferry between 88,000 and 110,000 passengers every day to ensure that it repays the loans with interest on time.

印度管理学院的一份报告称，为了经济上可行，孟买至艾哈迈德巴德高铁必须每天运送8.8万-11.8万名乘客，或者每天跑100趟。

这篇题为《印度高铁网络：发展的问题》的报告指出，如果15年后高铁开通，印度铁道部把票价定在300公里收1500卢比，那么每天必须运送8.8万至11万名乘客，才能确保按时连本带利偿还贷款。

Japan has offered a concessional loan of Rs 97,636 crore to fund about 80 per cent of the project cost with a repayment period of 50 years begng from the 16th year of operation at an interest rate of 0.1 per cent.

For the remaining 20 per cent loan, the authors assume 8 per cent average rate of interest (on Rs 20,000 crore to be funded by Centre). Japan has offered a 15-year moratorium on loan, so revenue concerns for the Indian Railways will arise from the 16th year, the authors state in the paper.

日本提供了9763亿卢比的优惠贷款，占工程造价的80%，偿还期为50年，从第16年开始偿还，利息为0.1%。

报告的作者，假设剩余20%贷款的利息为8%。日本贷款15年延期偿付，印度铁道部从第16年开始从高铁获取收入。

The total distance covered by the train will be 534 kilometres.

The paper has been jointly authored by faculty members G Raghuram, professor of the institute's Public Systems Group, and Prashanth Udayakumar.

孟买至艾哈迈德巴德高铁的总距离为534公里

Fifteen years after the bullet train becomes operational, while the actual operating cost is not known, the paper assumes two scenarios by pegging operating cost at 20 per cent and 40 per cent of revenue.

15年后高铁开通，到时候的实际运营成本尚不得而知。报告假设了两种情况，分别是运营成本分别占收入的20%和40%。

"So if the Railways earn Rs 100 revenue, Rs 20 or Rs 40 will go for maintenance, and remaining surplus money will go for cash payment of loan with interest. Now, to cover the loan with operating cost in two scenarios, we consider passengers travelling an average 300 kilometres. In this case, we will need 88,000-118,000 passengers respectively for both the scenarios," Raghuram said.

“也就是说，印度铁道部每100卢比收入，有20卢比或者40卢比是用来开支的，而其他的资金会用来偿还贷款。现在，假设平均每名乘客的旅行距离为300公里。这样的话，两种情况下，分别需要搭乘高铁的乘客人数介于8.8万至11.8万名之间。”

"Typically one train carries 800 passengers, so to carry 88,000 passengers daily, you will need to take a total 100 trips, or 50 trips each way. So, we need three trains every hour in each direction," he said.

“一列高铁搭载800名乘客，每天要运送8.8万名乘客，那么就需要跑100趟，或者跑50个来回。所以，每个小时同一方向需要3列高铁在跑。”

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/2016042109.html
外文地址：http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Bullet-train-will-need-100-trips-daily-to-be-financially-viable-Study/articleshow/51876621.cms

Kautilllya Raj

I think its feasible solution and We should go ahead with this project this Train will be our National Pride and In Long term it will be profitable population of India is going to increase multi fold not going to decrease :-)

我觉得可行

开始动工吧，高铁会成为我们的民族自豪感的

长期来看，高铁会盈利的，印度人口会增加几倍，不会减少的 :-)

Ashok Gupta

Although it seems to be a costly affair , but from prestige point of view its operation is a must .

虽然看起来贵，不过从提高声望这一角度来看，高铁开通是必须的

jana2504

Do we really need it. Prabhu and Modi could do well to make the exsting trains good and ensure easy online booking.

我们真的需要高铁吧

其实普拉布和莫迪可以改善现有铁路，方便人们网上订票

Kalrajitender

not feasible

不可行

raks

i dont like modi but this bullet train thing is long overdue for india, just like we have built metros we need this bullet train so that such experiments are replicated elsewhere, its important for our nation irrespective of feku, pappu or dharna is in power

我不喜欢莫迪，高铁在印度姗姗来迟

我们建了地铁，现在也需要高铁，然后把高铁经验推广到其他地方。

Uttam Kumar

Tax payers money shall be used for general improvement nad safety of Indian Railway. Adani and Ambani shall invest in bullet train. Why public money?

纳税人的钱应用于民生改善中

让阿达尼和阿巴尼等富翁去投资高铁吧，为什么要动用公款？

FekUji Flops

100 trip/day means the bullet train project is viable. We have to consider 20-year down-the-line projections, because the project will take at least 20-years being India

一天100趟，意味着高铁项目是可行的

还是预测20年后才开通吧，印度的工程至少需要20年才完工的