Quora讨论：印度会成为超级大国吗？

India's diplomatic standing and international reach. India has been uninvolved in many international conflicts and also has relatively little political influence on other countries (despite being the third largest contributor to UN Peacekee Forces worldwide). This may start changing as India's economy and international trade grow. The big diplomatic prize would be an enhanced status in the UN. India is arguing for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, but any UN SC reform seems impossible in the next five years. Some changes may become realistic by 2025, especially after major political upheavals that some predict for this timeframe. A UN reform is looking more likely by 2050, especially if 20 years pass without major conflicts. Here, the key for India is to wisely navigate between other world powers, make good bets, avoid major pitfalls, while contributing to the world peace in essential and unique ways. The current conflict with Pakistan is a serious shackle, as it confines India to the status of a regional power and limits India's support among Muslim nations (India's collaboration with Israel on defense matters is another issue for Muslim nations).

【印度外交地位和国际影响力】

印度并没有参与国际冲突，对其他国家的影响力也相对较小（尽管它是联合国维和部队全球第三大捐助国）。随着印度经济和国际贸易的增长，这种情况开始改变。

最大的外交嘉奖将是在联合国地位的提高。印度正主张获得联合国安理会的永久席位，但未来5年内，联合国不可能有任何改革。

2025年，一些变化或许会成真，特别是一段时间后某些人预测的一些政治动荡之后。2050年联合国可能会进行改革，尤其是如果20年内都没有重大冲突的话。

印度关键是要明智地穿行于世界各大国之间，做出正确选择，避免陷阱，同时以重要独特的方式对世界和平做出贡献。目前与巴基斯坦的冲突是一个严重的束缚，因为它将限制印度成为地区大国，限制印度获得msl国家的支持（印度与以色列在国防上的合作是MSL国家的令一个问题）。

The rule of three. I'd like to postulate that there can be at most three global superpowers on this planet (with more comparable powers, each will hold too little sway to count as a superpower). There is little doubt that the US will remain a superpower, even if 's economy becomes larger. As of 2025, the EU will likely become the second global superpower, and some may argue that it already is (the EU economy is currently larger than the US economy, the EU definitely has global political, diplomatic and economy-related reach, while enjoying two seats on the UN Security Council, etc). It is not clear if there will be a third superpower, especially that the US and the EU are so tightly allied in most regards. But the main candidates are and India (Russia's economy is way too small, and its global reach has significantly shrunk in 2014-2015 due to political adventurism and bad bets, while the overall trajectory remains negative). Both and India have limited global reach today, and both are trying to reach the status of developed economies. Both need to provide better education to their citizens, improve their legal/enforcement systems and cut down corruption. Both have questionable human-rights records, although India seems in a better shape. Both have thorny relations with some of their neighbors that are unlikely to get resolved. has a head start on the economy size, while India has a head start on the political system. In the short-term, economy is more tangible, but in the long term the political system is at least as important (as this is critical to fixng the legal system, setting up effective law enforcement, and rooting out corruption).
So, will or India be the third superpower? Or neither?
140.2k Views · 3,291 Upvotes · Answer requested by Kushagra Sharma

【三强鼎立理论】

我假设世界上最多有三个超级大国（有很多类似的大国，不会被当成超级大国）。毫无疑问，即使经济变得更强大，美国也将一直是超级大国。

2025年，欧盟可能成为第二超级大国，一些人可能会说，它已经是了（欧盟经济大于美国，欧盟在全球政治、外交和经济上都有影响力，还拥有联合国两个永久席位等等）。

尚不清楚是否会有第三个超级大国，尤其是美国和欧盟在很多方面都紧密联系的情况下。但主要候选国是印度和（俄罗斯经济规模太小，由于政治冒险主义和糟糕的押注，其全球影响力在2014~2015年明显萎缩，整体发展轨迹仍处于负面状态）。

中印的影响力目前还有限，两国都试图达到发达经济体的地位。两个国家都想为本国公民提供更好的教育，改善法律体系，减少腐败。两国都与邻国有不太可能解决的棘手问题。

经济规模领先，而印度在政治体系上领先。短期时间内，经济更切合实际，长远看来，政治体系至少同样重要（对修复法律体系、建立有效执法、铲除腐败等至关重要）。

，或者印度会成为第三个超级大国吗？或许不会？

Rishabh Raj Jha, Indian by birth.
Answered Jul 2
Question -
Will India ever become a superpower ?
Answer-
As long as the reservation system prevails
NO
If reservation system ends
MAY BE
If everyone does their own job instead of putting their nose in someone else’s business
SURELY YES

印度会成为超级大国吗？
只要有少数族群预留制，就不会。
预留制结束，可能。
如果每个人只做自己的工作，而不是干涉别人的事情，那肯定会。

Ernest W. Adams, keen but amateur observer of geopolitics.
Answered Jan 28, 2016
Being a superpower means being able to project force just about anywhere. I am inclined to think that, unless its rivalry with gets out of hand, India won't go down that road. The problem isn't a lack of ability or resources, but a question of where India's resources are best spent. Right now, India has no need for seven or eight aircraft carrier battle groups. It has other, better things to do with its money.

成为超级大国，意味着能将军队部署在任何地方。
我倾向于认为，除非印度与的竞争失控，印度不会走向这条路。
问题不在于缺乏能力或资源，而是印度的资源最佳的使用位置。
目前，印度不需要7/8支航母战斗群，其他地方更需要资金。