The secret to Australia avoiding recession: Mass immigration

澳大利亚避免经济衰退的秘诀：大规模移民

Australia is standing firm amid growing calls for immigration curbs, even as the US and Europe succumb to rising populism. It has little choice if it’s to continue a period of record economic expansion.

在美国和欧洲都屈服于日益高涨的民粹主义，呼吁限制移民的情况下，澳大利亚在移民政策上始终坚定不移。

A flood of arrivals that’s swelled the population by 50 per cent over the past three decades has underpinned economic growth and allowed a succession of governments to boast of avoiding recession since 1991. Populists are blaming immigrants for over-burdened infrastructure, soaring housing prices and low wage growth.

在过去的三十年里，大批涌入的移民人口使澳大利亚总人口增长了50%，这为经济增长打下了基础，并使得历任政府宣称他们免受了经济衰退的影响。民粹主义者谴责移民使得基础设施不堪重负，房价飞涨和工资增长缓慢。

Australia’s former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, now on the government’s backbench, is among those saying “enough.” He wants to slash the annual allowance to 110,000 migrants from 190,000, a move the government says could shrink its coffers by as much as A$5 billion ($3.9 billion) over four years. Anti-multiculturalism senator Pauline Hanson is calling for zero net migration.

澳大利亚前总理托尼亚伯特，现任政府议员，也是对移民喊停的反对人士之一。他提议将每年的移民配额从19万砍至11万，政府称这一举措将导致国库在四年内缩减50亿澳币（折合39亿美元）。反对多元文化主义的议员宝琳韩森呼吁零净移民。

Introducing such curbs in Australia, which has one of the fastest-growing populations in the developed world, could derail economic growth that’s already lingering below its 10-year average.

作为发达国家中人口增长速度最快的国家之一，在澳大利亚推行这种限制移民措施，可能会使目前已低于10年平均增长速度的经济脱轨。

“Australia’s immigration policy has given it an advantage over other developed nations in creating demand, consumption and employment,” said Su-Lin Ong, Royal Bank of Canada’s head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy. “It’s the challenge for politicians to rationally, clearly explain why it’s beneficial and important for voters not to be swayed by populist thinking. That’s clearly easier said than done.”

加拿大皇家银行驻澳大利亚的经济及固定收益策略主管苏琳翁称，“澳大利亚的移民政策使其在创造需求、消费和就业方面比其他发达国家有优势。政治家们面临一个挑战，如何理性、清楚地向选民解释为什么不要被民粹主义思想的影响是有益、重要的。说起来容易做起来难。”

Governments from the US to the UK to Europe have clamped down on immigration as voters are increasingly drawn to populist parties blaming foreigners for widening social and economic inequality. Australia has taken the opposite route: it welcomed almost 184,000 new arrivals in fiscal 2017.

因为选民们受民粹组织谴责外国人加剧了社会及经济不平等言论的影响，美国、英国、欧洲的政府都先后开始限制移民。澳大利亚则采取了相反的路线：它在2017财年迎来了近184000名新来者。

Reserve Bank of Australia chief Philip Lowe last year said population growth was flattering economic data. Indeed, digging beneath the past quarter century’s unbroken gross domestic product record reveals a somewhat bleaker picture: on a GDP per person basis, the growth in economic output was zero at the end of last year and the weakest since the third quarter of 2016.

澳大利亚储备银行首席执行官菲利普罗维去年表示，人口增长对经济数据很有利。事实上，对过去的四分之一世纪间国内生产总值记录的研究，揭示了一个有点暗淡的画面：在人均GDP方面，去年年底经济产出的增长是零，为2016第三季度以来最弱的。

An accelerating population makes it less likely the nation will slip into a recession — technically defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction — said Gareth Aird, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

澳大利亚联邦银行额首席经济学家加雷思埃尔德称，加速增长的人口使得国家陷入衰退的可能性降低了——从技术上讲，这是持续了两个季度的经济紧缩。

“So if you’ve got strong population growth — whether or not it’s driven by immigration — then it’s harder to go backwards in an output sense. But if you look at the economy on a per capita basis, we’ve had a couple of recessions over that period.”

“因此，如果有强大的人口增长——不管是不是由移民造成的——那么在经济产出上就很难发生倒退。但是，如果你以人均GDP来看待经济，我们在那段时期经历了几次衰退。”

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/44380.html

Population growth is also weighing on unemployment. Despite the creation of 400,000 new roles in 2017, the jobless rate hovered around 5.5 per cent for most of the previous year. That’s largely because more people are looking for work: the labor force participation rate is near a seven-year high. The RBA is reluctant to lift interest rates from a record low until the jobless rate is nearer 5 per cent — its estimated full employment target.

人口增长也加重了失业现象。尽管2017年新增了40万个新的就业岗位，但失业率在上一年的大部分时间里徘徊在5.5%左右。这主要是因为越来越多的人在找工作：劳动力参与率接近7年来的最高水平。除非失业率降至实现充分就业目标的5%，否则澳洲联储不愿将利率从创纪录的低点往上调。

Australia’s so-called points system for assessing potential migrants sees skilled workers ranked by their need, and they must also pass health and character tests. Those becoming citizens must first pass an English-language quiz on the nation’s constitution, history and values. India is the biggest source of skilled migrants, comprising 21 per cent in fiscal 2017, followed by on 15 per cent and the UK with 9 per cent.

澳大利亚用一套评分体系，对潜在移民，如技术移民根据需求进行排名，同时他们还必须通过健康和性格测试。那些成为公民的人必须首先通过一个关于国家宪法、历史和价值观的英语测验。印度是技术移民的第一大来源国，占据了2017财年总移民数的21%，紧随其后的是15%以及英国9%。