Moody's cuts India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.5%

穆迪将印度2018的增长率预期从7.5%下调至7.3%

NEW DELHI: Moody's Investors Service today cut India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3 per cent from the previous estimate of 7.5 per cent, saying the economy is in cyclical recovery but higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.

新德里：穆迪投资者服务公司今日将印度2018年的经济增长预期从此前的7.5%下调至7.3%，称印度经济正处于周期性复苏之中，但油价上涨和金融环境的收紧将拖累经济加速增长。

Moody's, however, maintained its 2019 growth forecast at 7.5 per cent.

然而，穆迪将印度2019年增长预期维持在7.5%。

"The Indian economy is in cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.

“印度经济由于投资和消费的增长而处于周期性复苏。然而，油价上涨和金融环境的收紧将会拖累经济加速增长的步伐。”

"We expect GDP growth of about 7.3 per cent in 2018, down from our previous forecast of 7.5 per cent. Our growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 per cent," it said in an update of its 'Global Macro Outlook: 2018-19'.

该机构在最新的《全球宏观展望:2018-19》中表示：“我们预计2018年印度国内生产总值增长约为7.3%，低于我们此前预测的7.5%。我们对印度2019年的增长预期仍保持在7.5%不变”。

Moody's said growth should benefit from an acceleration in rural consumption, supported by higher minimum support prices and a normal monsoon.

穆迪表示，经济增长应受益于农村消费的加速增长，这得益于较高的最低支持价格和正常的雨季。

"The private investment cycle will continue to make a gradual recovery, as twin balance-sheet issues - impaired assets at banks and corporates - slowly get addressed through deleveraging and the application of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code," it said.

它表示:“私人投资周期将继续逐步复苏，资产负债表中的双生问题——银行和企业中的不良资产——将通过去杠杆、破产程序慢慢得到解决。”

Also, the ongoing transition to the new Goods and Service Tax regime could weigh on growth somewhat over the next few quarters, which poses some downside risk to the forecast, it said. "However, we expect these issues to moderate over the course of the year."

此外，新的商品服务税制的过渡可能会在未来几个季度对经济增长构成压力，这将给预测带来一些下行风险。“然而，我们预计这些问题将在一年内慢慢缓和。”

For the world economy, Moody's expected 2018 to be a year of robust global growth, similar to 2017.

至于世界经济，穆迪预计2018年将延续2017年态势，对全球经济来说会是强劲增长的一年。

"However, global growth will likely moderate by the end of 2018 and in 2019 as a result of a number of advanced economies reaching full employment, and because of rising borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions in both advanced and emerging market countries that will hamper further acceleration," it said.

报告称:“然而，由于许多发达经济体实现充分就业，发达国家和新兴市场国家的借贷成本上升和信贷条件收紧，全球经济增长可能会在2018年底和2019年放慢脚步，这将阻碍经济继续加速。”

The G-20 countries, it said, will grow 3.3 per cent in 2018 and 3.2 per cent in 2019. The advanced economies will grow at a moderate 2.3 per cent in 2018 and 2.0 per cent in 2019, while G-20 emerging markets will remain the growth drivers, at 5.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, down from 5.3 per cent in 2017.

该机构表示，20国集团将在2018年和2019年分别增长3.3%和3.2%。发达经济体将在2018年和2019年分别增长2.3%和2.0%，而20国集团新兴市场仍将继续成为经济增长的火车头，2018年和2019年的增速分别为5.2%，低于2017年的5.3%。

Moody's said downside risks to growth stem from emerging markets turmoil, oil price increases and trade disputes.

穆迪表示，增长的下行风险来自新兴市场动荡、油价上涨和贸易争端。

"Overall, we expect 2018 to be a year of robust global growth, similar to 2017," according to Moody's VP Senior Credit Officer Madhavi Bokil.

穆迪副总裁马德哈维·博基尔称：“总体而言，我们预计2018年将2018年将延续2017年态势，对全球经济来说会是强劲增长的一年。”

The outlook for global monetary policy is broadly unchanged with the US Federal Reserve on a predictable and gradual tightening monetary policy path. Three additional increases in the US federal funds rate this year is expected to be followed by three more hikes in 2019.

对于全球货币政策的预测，与美联储在可预测的、逐渐收紧的货币政策道路上大体保持一致。预计今年美国联邦基金利率将再上调三次，2019年将再上调三次。

The European Central Bank will likely stop additional asset purchases by year-end and start increasing the deposit facility rate in the first half of 2019. The Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy over the next two years.

欧洲央行可能会在年底前停止增加资产购买，并在2019年上半年开始提高存款准备金率。日本央行将在未来两年内维持目前的货币政策。

"Rising interest rates and currency depreciation reinforces Moody's view central banks in emerging market countries will not be able to provide monetary policy accommodation for much longer," Bokil says.

博基尔称：“不断上升的利率和货币贬值强化了穆迪的观点，新兴市场国家的央行无力继续提供宽松的货币政策”。

印度时报读者的评论：

来源：http://www.santaihu.com/45128.html

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

WorldLink

6016

Worldlink-16 hours ago

Don't worry Modi's great ideas will cut it even more. Our PM's mouth works faster than his brains.

不要担心，莫迪的高见会造成更大下调的。我们的首相的嘴比他的脑子还快。

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Modi - never to be elected next time. Our economy is going into trash!!!

莫迪——永远不会再次当选。我们的经济正在走向垃圾!!

MiddleClassIndian.

23093

MiddleClassIndian.-Boston, USA-16 hours ago-Follow

Real growth is less than 3 percent, if calculated by old method... Maha chor Modi and bjpoigs show up as they do show business... Nothing on the ground...

如果按照旧的统计方法，实际增长率不到3%。莫迪和人民党只会表演……根本没有落实任何具体措施……

Brain Teaser Brain-Earth-16 hours ago-Follow

Soon it will be 3.7%

很快就会降到3.7%了

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Where is Jaitley? Incompetent FM is the reason for the slow growth! Jaitley should be dismissed immediately!!!

贾特里呢？在哪儿呢？这个不称职的财务部长是增长速度放慢的罪魁祸首！贾特里应该被马上免职！

Sridhar Natarajan

7663

Sridhar Natarajan-Chennai-17 hours ago-Follow

Still it is a great number, compared to UPA corrupt regime.

与团结进步联盟腐败的政权相比，这已经算是不错的数字了。

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Another masterstroke by Modi!!!

这是莫迪的又一次成功! ! !