Not just seats, BJP losing vote share too

人民党失了席位，也失了选票

TNN | Updated: Jun 1, 2018, 08:24 IST

NEW DELHI: Worrying as the 3-12 scoreline in Thursday’s bypoll results would be for BJP, what may cause the party even greater concern is that these results are not merely a reflection of opposition unity but of an erosion in its vote share as well.

新德里：周四的投票结果显示，人民党以3比12的比分失利，但让该党感到担忧的是，这结果不仅反映了反对党的团结，也反映了人民党的得票率下降。

The result in Kairana best illustrates this fact. In 2014, BJP had polled 50.6% of the votes. Had it been able to repeat that, no amount of coming together by the rest could have defeated the party. But as in Gorakhpur and Phulpur earlier this year, the arithmetic of opposition unity combined with a drop in BJP votes — to 46.5% — to deliver an adverse verdict.

凯拉纳的投票结果就是最好的例子。2014年，印度人民党获得了50.6%的选票。如果历史重演，那么，就算再多的反对党聚在一起，也不可能击败人民党的。但就像戈拉克布尔和普尔普一样，反对党团结一致，而人民党的得票率降至46.5%，造成了对人民党不利的局面。

What’s happened to vote shares is more difficult to work out in the other three Lok Sabha bypolls. In the two Maharashtra constituencies, Palghar and Bhandara-Gondiya, BJP’s vote share dropped by about nine percentage points and nearly 23 percentage points respectively. But then, its votes in 2014 included Sena’s support base since the two parties had contested as allies. So exactly how much of an erosion there is in the BJP vote is difficult to say. What is certain, however, is an increase in the Congress-NCP combine’s vote share in Bhandara-Gondiya by more than eight percentage points since 2014. In Palghar, in contrast, this alliance was reduced to also ran status as the contest became between the BJP, Sena and BVA.

在另外三场人民院的投票中，选票的变化更加难以计算。在马哈拉施特拉邦的两个选区，Palghar和Bhandala - Gondiya，人民党得票率分别下降了约9个百分点和近23个百分点。但另一方面，2014年的投票结果中包括了湿婆神军党的支持，因为两党一直以来都是盟友。因此，很难确切地说，人民党的得票率到底下降多少。不过，可以肯定的是，自2014年以来，国大党和民族大会党在Bhandala - Gondiya的得票率增加了逾8个百分点。相比之下，在Palghar，当人民党、湿婆神军党和BVA之间的开始互相角逐时，其联盟也被削弱了。

In the remaining Lok Sabha bypoll, in Nagaland, it was a repeat of a contest between two NDA constituents with NPF and NDPP facing off. As in the assembly polls, BJP backing NDPP seems to have tilted the balance.

在那加兰邦的人民院投票中，全国民*联盟的两个党派，NPF和NDPP之间的竞争再次上演。在议会投票中，人民党偏向支持NDPP似乎使天平发生倾斜。

Analysing vote shares in the 10 assembly contests shows that in most cases BJP’s vote share has declined. However, it has risen in Maheshtala in West Bengal to the extent that the party has taken second spot ahead of CPM, furthering a trend noticed in the recent local body polls. BJP’s vote share has risen significantly in Noorpur in Uttar Pradesh, from 39% in last year’s assembly polls to 47.2% now. But that was simply not enough to match the united strength of the opposition.

10个地方议会的投票结果表明，在多数情况下，印度人民党的得票率有所下降。然而，在西孟加拉邦的马哈拉施特拉，该党的支持率已经上升到第二位，领先印度，这进一步推动了最近地方机构的民调所显示的趋势。印度人民党的得票率在北方邦的Noorpur显著上升，从去年议会选举的39%上升到现在的47.2%。但仍不能与反对派的团结力量相匹敌。

Beyond the big states of UP and Maharashtra, what would cause BJP some concern is the decline in its vote share in Chengannur in Kerala from 29.3% in the 2016 assembly polls to 23.2% now. Seen as a stronghold of the Nair community, BJP would have hoped for a better showing in this seat if it is to make serious inroads in a state that has proved a hard nut to crack for the party.
除了中央邦和马哈拉施特拉邦这两大邦之外，让印度人民党感到担忧的是，在喀拉拉邦的琴格阿恩努尔，印度人民党在选举中的得票率从2016年的29.3%下降到现在的23.2%。人民党本来希望在Nail社区能取得较好的表现，因为对一个政党来说，要拿下一个新的邦，会是一个棘手的难题。

With the result in RR Nagar in Bengaluru showing an uptick in Congress vote share and in the combined Congress-JD(S) share from the 2013 assembly polls, it would appear that BJP’s hopes that the voters of the state will be disgusted with an ‘unprincipled’ alliance have been dashed.

班加罗尔RR Nagar的投票结果显示，国大党的得票率有所上升。自2013年以来的议会选举中，国大党及人民党世俗派联盟的选票总和也有所上升。看来，人民党希望选民厌恶一个“无原则”联盟的希望已经破灭。

印度时报读者的评论：

来源：http://www.santaihu.com/45133.html

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Jat Chaudhary

4500

Jat Chaudhary-9 hours ago-Follow

A donkey is better than BJP

蠢驴都比人民党强

Ravi Kumar

3729

ravi kumar-India-9 hours ago-Follow

We don''t deserve a hard working PM but a puppet who walks talks according to an Italian.

我们该有的不是努力工作的总理，而是一个对意大利人唯命是从的傀儡。

Vihin

13529

Vihin-Nihiv-8 hours ago-Follow

For Modi it was not by-poll but bye-poll.

对莫迪来说，这不是投票，而是拜拜，选票。。

Jat Chaudhary

4500

Jat Chaudhary-9 hours ago-Follow

No more BJPain

人民党别再当选了。。

5 Shail

8384

shail-US-8 hours ago-Follow

Time for BJP leaders to become humble and not treat common man like dirt. If common man can uproot Corrupt Congis, he can uproot Belligerent BJP as well.

人民党应该要谦逊一点了。别把老百姓当尘埃。。老百姓能让腐败的国大党下台。 也能让人民党下台。。

Humanity Comes First

2479

Humanity comes first-7 hours ago-Follow

Petrol =84 p/l Diesel = 75 p/l Fools say modi is doing good. MODI HATAAW DESH BACHAAW

汽油=84便士/升 柴油= 75便士/升，笨蛋才说莫迪干得不错。