印度人是否高估了本国GDP增长率

Are Indians overestimating the country’s GDP growth rate?

印度人是否高估了本国的GDP增长率?

Quora评论翻译：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46405.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://www.quora.com/Are-Indians-overestimating-the-country%E2%80%99s-GDP-growth-rate

KiranKumar Uppoor, studied at Fatima High School

The GDP growth rate is currently a result of mathematics not due to any policy or organic growth. Sample this just by shifting the base calculation year to 2011-2012 ( The worst possible year in the last 10 years) .The GDP growth rate looks better by 1.9% as compared to the earlier base calculation year (2004-2005). Basically if the same parameters were to be used than the GDP figures would be 4.9% not 6.8% as currently claimed. Needless to say 4.9% indicates that there is no change what so ever as compared to the earlier regime. This does not augur well to the current government . The CSO currently quotes the revised/more convienent 6.9% .

Hence this is disputed by economists.

目前GDP增长率是通过数学公式计算出来的，不是由任何政策左右的也不是有机增长的结果。以2011-2012年(过去10年里最糟糕的一年)为例，GDP增长率较早前的基础计算年(2004-2005年)高出1.9%。如果使用相同的参数，GDP数据将是4.9%，而不是目前宣称的6.8%。4.9%表明，与以前相比，没有任何变化。这对现任政府来说不是好兆头。中央统计局目前采纳了修正后的6.9%。因此，经济学家对此提出了质疑。

Ironically MODI govt 's chief economic advisor aravind subramanium had this to say

"On Feb. 3 in an interview to the Business Standard newspaper, he said: “I am puzzled by the new GDP growth numbers. The revised numbers show GDP growth rose from 4.7% to 5.1% for 2012-13 and from 5% to 6.9% for 2013-14. This means acceleration in GDP growth of 1.9 percentage points in 2013-14, just by comparing the new numbers across time.”

This is “mystifying,” he added, because “these numbers, especially the acceleration in 2013-14, are at odds with other features of the macro economy.”

讽刺的是，2月3日莫迪政府的首席经济顾问aravind subramanium在接受《商业标准报》采访时表示：“我对新的GDP增长数据感到困惑。修正后的数据显示，2012年至2013年，GDP增速从4.7%升至5.1%，2013年至2014年，从5%升至6.9%。这意味着2013年至2014年GDP增速加快了1.9个百分点。这是“令人困惑的，因为这些数据，尤其是2013年至2014年的增速，与宏观经济的其他特征不符。”

Also "Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, wrote in a blog for The Times of India, that the “dramatic upward revision of the GDP growth rate is a bad joke, smashing India’s credibility and making its statistics bureau a laughing stock in global financial circles.” Sharma also wrote that this makes India look bad even compared to , which many analysts have long suspected of massaging GDP figures to show steady growth.

摩根士丹利新兴市场和全球宏观投资管理主管Ruchir Sharma在《印度时报》发表的一篇博客中写道：“大幅向上修正的GDP增长率是个拙劣的玩笑，降低了印度的可信度，使其统计局成为全球金融界的一个笑柄。Sharma还写道，即便与相比，印度看起来也不咋地。长期以来，许多分析人士一直怀疑操纵GDP数据以显示稳定增长。

Since the current revised estimates indicates growth , the on ground indicators does not support this number. for example

Agriculture- The growth has been a dismal , lower than projected. Ashok Gulati has explained it Economic Survey 2015: Growth in agriculture remains a worry, says Ashok Gulati .

虽然目前修正后的数据显示增长，但实际指标并不支持这个数字。例如，农业增长惨淡，低于预期。阿肖克•古拉蒂在《2015年经济调查-农业增长仍令人担忧》中有作具体解释。

Similarly ,manufactering sector has slowed down

Corporate debt is at its all time high

More than 8.8 lakh Crore projects are still stalled

Perception is not reality , and the reality is far from the perception. As of now there is lots and lots of word play , and economy is represented by smart mathematics. Like they say if all i had to do is drag the cursor along the excel row......I would be a billionare in no time

公司债务正处于历史高位，超过8.8万亿卢布的项目仍处于停滞状态。

理想很丰满，现实很骨感。到目前为止，有很多文字游戏，经济是通过机智的数学算法呈现的。就像他们说的，如果我所要做的就是沿着excel行拖动光标，那我很快就会成为亿万富翁。

Vaibhav Bajpai, Assistant Engineer at UJVN Limited (2017-present)

Most of the answers seem to be supporting the current GDP figures which has been calculated by taking newer base year and newer factors into account. But the recent reports by CSO and apprehensions of various economist has definetly raised questions over the over rated growth rate and over optimistic economic survey.

大多数回答似乎都支持当前的GDP数据，这些数据是根据较新的基准年和因素计算出来的。但中央统计局最近的报告和各大经济学家的忧虑，无疑对过高的增长率和乐观的经济调查提出了质疑。

For example the manufacturing sector has shown a growth of 8.1% but at the same time the index for industrial production ( 2.4%) and export sector has taken a dip or has not shown significant increase ; which is quite contrary in nature. And the eyebrows have already been raised. The centre for monitoring indian economy has reported discrepancies in the CSO’s statistics. the word discrepancy here just means the anamolies or something which can not be understood in the whole process of computing GDP(GVA now). In 2014–2015 the discrepancy value was 0.1% when reported GDP was 7.2% while in the year 2015–2016 the value rose to 2.4% and the value reported was 7.6%( which is huge)

例如，数据显示制造业增长8.1%，但同期的工业生产指数(2.4%)和出口有所下降或没有明显增长，这在本质上是完全相反的。印度经济监测中心报告了中央统计局统计数据的“出入”。这里的“出入”一词只是指在计算GDP(GVA)的整个过程中无法理解的异常现象。2014-2015年，公布的GDP为7.2%，出入为0.1%，2015-2016年，公布的GDP为7.6%，出入上升至2.4%(非常大)。

There are some positive predictions for the future year(2016–2017)too but considering the poor health of banking sector, marginal increase in oil price , higher correaltion with the world economy and unrealistic and over optimistic reasons to support them makes the task of bringing indian economy back on track an uphill task for the government.

虽然对2016 - 2017年有一些积极的预测，但考虑到银行业的状况不佳，油价小幅上涨，与世界经济关联更加密切，以及不切实际和过于乐观的态度，印度政府要想把印度经济拉回正轨是一项艰巨的任务。

Sarthak Gulati, Central banker, Ex- Civil servant, Economist, Thinker

India's GDP growth rates are one of the most important yet least reliable parameters for policy making. They are even less reliable when used as a means of determining political discourse.

印度的GDP增长率是政策制定中最重要但也是最不可靠的参数之一。当它们被用作决定政治话语权的手段时，就更不可靠了。

First, there are constant revisions of GDP data and these revisions are significantly different from initial estimates. Actual GDP numbers (second revised estimates) for a year are released only after a lag of two years.

首先，GDP数据不断被修正，而修正后的数据与最初的估值相差甚远。实际GDP数据(经过二次修正的估值)在两年之后才公布。

If provisional estimates for 2017–18 are set at 7 per cent, and even if they are revised to 4 per cent or 10 per cent in 2020, it will have no relevance for policy making nor will it matter to the people at large.

如果对2017-2018年的GDP增长率暂估为7%，即使在2020年将其修正为4%或10%，这也与政策制定无关，也不会对普通大众产生影响。

Second, there are claims of overestimation/underestimation due to base changes. People and policymakers can use new series to understand trends only when they have the old series data for the new base.

其次，由于基数的变化，有些人断言高估或者低估了。民众和政策制定者只有在拥有新基数的旧系列数据时，才能使用新系列数据来了解趋势。

India clocked 10.08 per cent growth under Manmohan Singh's tenure: Report

在曼莫汉•辛格任内，印度实现了10.08%的增长。

A few days back, finally we got the old series data for 2011–12 base year. Now it will have limited relevance for both the policy makers and the people of the country.

几天前，我们终于得到了2011-2012基准年的旧系列数据。但现在它对政策制定者和人民的意义有限。

In light of this data, despite the claims of high growth by current leaders, GDP growth rates in last 4 years are lower than average of 10 years under the previous government.

根据这些数据，尽管现任领导人宣称经济将高速增长，但过去4年的GDP增长率低于上届政府执所执政10年的平均水平。

Overestimation or underestimation is only important when we are comparing growth across countries or comparing (wrongly) growth among two different base year series.

只有当我们比较不同国家的增长率或比较两个不同基准年的增长率时，高估或低估才显得重要。

First, GDP growth rates should never be compared across countries. A country five times our size growing a per cent slower than us, doesn't make us a economic superpower.

首先，不应拿不同国家的GDP增长率进行比较。即使我们的增长率比一个经济规模是我们五倍的国家快10%，也不意味着我们就是一个经济超级大国。

Second, now that we have old data, What must be done is comparison of GDP growth with potential growth rate of the country.

其次，现在有了旧的数据，我们必须做的是将GDP增长与潜在增长率进行比较。

Either you say, productivity of labour/capital has reduced. Or amount of labour/ capital resources available have reduced. Or the export potential of the country has worsened. If neither of this is true, there is no reason, why we can't achieve double digit growth rates again.

要么劳动力/资本的生产率降低了，要么可用的劳动力/资本资源减少了或者出口潜力已经恶化。如果这两种说法都不成立，那我们没有理由不能再次实现两位数的增长率。

To answer the question, India sometimes underestimates its GDP, it sometimes overestimates its GDP but it always misestimates its provisional estimates of GDP.

Note: All views are personal and do not represent my organization.

我的回答是，印度有时低估GDP增长率，有时高估GDP增长率，但它总是估错GDP增长率的暂估值。注:以上为个人观点，不代表我的组织。