印度GDP和人均GDP何时能分别突破10万亿美元和1万美元

Akshay Smit, Indian. Studied the history of India for several years.

Let’s actually start looking at some hard data. We can make speculative and handwavy arguments all we like, but nothing gives perspective like some hard numbers.

Let’s assume a 1.2% inflation rate in the United States, and a 7.6% real growth rate for India. The current size of India’s economy is USD 2.4 trillion.

让我们先来看一些数据。我们可以随意推测论证，但没有什么比数字更清楚了。

让我们假设美国的通货膨胀率为1.2%，印度的实际增长率为7.6%。印度经济目前的经济规模是2.4万亿美元。

Looking at the above graph, it seems that India will achieve a 10 trillion dollar economy, at current USD prices, 16 years from now. That is, in the year 2032.

But of course, India’s growth rate will also decrease from over 7% as the years go by. So let’s see what may happen after 2032.

从上面的图表来看，按目前的美元价格，16年后，印度将可能实现10万亿美元的经济规模。也就是说，2032年的时候。

当然，随着时间的推移，印度的经济增长率也将从7%以上回落。让我们看看2032年后会发生什么。

Now the starting year is 2032, assuming a 1% US inflation rate, and a 6% growth rate for India. In this case, India will go from $10 trillion in 2032 to $24 trillion in 2044, a period of 12 years.

That’s the compounding effect of exponential growth. The time period between achieving milestones decreases quite dramatically as your starting base increase. So under the assumptions, India’s economy will quadruple by 2032, and increase tenfold by 2044.

On the other hand, here’s a picture of the US economy with an average 1.5% long-term growth rate, with 1.2% dollar inflation:

现在从2032年开始，假设美国的通货膨胀率是1%，印度的增长率是6%。在这种情况下，印度将在12年的时间内，从2032年的10万亿美元增长到2044年的24万亿美元。

这就是指数复利增长的效应。实现目标所需的时间随着初始基数的增加而显著减少。因此，根据假设，到2032年，印度经济将增长4倍，到2044年增长10倍。

另一方面，如图所示美国经济的长期平均增长率为1.5%，美元通货膨胀率为1.2%。

The US economy starts off at $18.5 trillion in 2016, and reaches $40 trillion by 2046. So right now America’s economy is 7.7 times larger than India. By 2045, it will be less than 1.5 times larger.

Here’s a look at India’s regional rival, Pakistan’s economy, assuming 1.2% dollar inflation and 4% long term growth:

美国经济在2016年为18.5万亿美元，2046年达到40万亿美元。所以现在美国的经济比印度大7.7倍。到2045年，这个差距缩小到1.5倍。

下面我们来看看印度的地区竞争对手，巴基斯坦的经济，假设美元通胀率1.2%，长期增长率4%：

It starts off much farther to the left at $270 billion. Pakistan won’t become a $1 trillion economy until 2041, by which time India will already be a $20 trillion economy.

And Pakistan’s growth rate certainly won’t stay at 4% for 25 years, so probably Pakistan will reach the trillion mark closer to 2050.

So that’s a comparison based on current growth rates, dollar inflation rates, and prediction on falling long-term growth rates. If nothing else, India’s economic advantage over its rival Pakistan will become even more enormous.

从左边的2700亿美元开始。直到2041年，巴基斯坦才能成为1万亿美元的经济体，到那时，印度已经是一个20万亿美元的经济体了。

巴基斯坦的增长率在25年内肯定不会一直保持在4%的水平，所以巴基斯坦很可能在2050年才能达到万亿大关。

因此，这是一个基于当前增长率、美元通胀率和长期增长率下降的预期的比较。如果没有别的因素，印度的经济优势将比其竞争对手巴基斯坦更大。

Samanyu Sood

PwC in its 'World in 2050' report said that India, along with , will be the world's leading economy by 2050, while Japan, South Korea and Australia will slip in terms of rankings among top global economies. According to the report, Indian economy will surge to $17 trillion in 2030 and $42 trillion by 2050, claiming second place ahead of the US (which will touch $41 trillion) and will comfortably overtake the EU and the US in share of world GDP (in PPP terms) by 2044 and 2049, respectively. PwC also stated that Indian economy will expand by an average annual rate of 6.4% from 2014 to 2020, remaining faster than after 2020 owing to its younger population and a greater scope for catch-up growth.

India has the potential to become a multi-trillion dollar economy with a per capita income of about $40,000 by 2050.

普华永道在其《2050年的世界》报告中表示，到2050年，印度和将成为世界领先经济体，而日本、韩国和澳大利亚在全球顶级经济体中的排名将出现下滑。根据这份报告，印度经济将在2030年猛增至17万亿美元，到2050年将增至42万亿美元，位居第二，超过美国（将达到41万亿美元），并将在2044年和2049年分别轻松超过欧盟和美国占世界GDP的比重（按购买力平价计算）。普华永道还表示，从2014年到2020年，印度经济将以6.4%的平均年增长率增长，由于印度人口较年轻，追赶增长的空间较大，2020年后仍将保持比更快的速度。

到2050年，印度有希望成为人均收入40000美元的万亿级美元的经济体。

India, currently, enjoys three major economic attributes that are also seen as factors that will provide a leg-up in the country's journey to a global economic powerhouse—favourable demographics, its status as one among the world's largest de ocracies and a preponderance of English speakers, which helps ease business dealings with the West.

For one, to reach a size of $20 trillion by 2030 and $42 trillion by 2050, India will have to grow at 7% annually for the next 30-35 years, which seems unlikely. Besides, the country's growth would require sustained economic reforms and increased investment in infrastructure, institutions and mass education. The country will also have to transform its agriculture completely, grow its services and manufacturing sectors and give a boost to tourism.

Like I said it could become $20 trillion by 2030.

$10 trillion would be easy to achieve and the goal would be $20 trillion.

目前，印度有三个主要的经济特征，这些特征被视为有助于该国跻身全球经济强国——人口结构，印度是全球最大的民*国家之一的地位以及英语国家的优势。都有助于提高与欧美地区的贸易往来。

首先，为了在2030年达到20万亿美元、2050年达到42万亿美元的规模，印度在未来30-35年必须以每年7%的速度增长，这似乎不太现实。此外，该国的增长需要持续进行的经济改革，并对基础设施、机构和大众教育大力投资。印度还必须彻底改革农业，发展服务业和制造业，并推动旅游业。

就像我说的，2030年印度可能会达到20万亿美元。

10万亿美元也许很容易实现，但目标应该是20万亿美元。