Why is everyone cutting India's GDP growth forecast?

为何每家机构都下调印度的GDP增长预测?

NEW DELHI: Fitch Ratings slashed India's GDP growth forecast this week to 7.2% for the year, from 7.8% projected in September. Last week, Crisil had trimmed the forecast to 7.4% from 7.5%. the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects GDP at market prices to grow 7.3% in 2019. RBI, though, has retained its earlier prognosis of 7.4% growth.

新德里: 本周，惠誉评级将印度今年的GDP增长预期从9月份的7.8%下调至7.2%。上周，印度信贷评级信息服务有限公司（Crisil）将这一预期从7.5%下调至7.4%。 经济合作与发展组织(OECD)预计2019年GDP将以市场价格增长7.3%。不过，印度央行仍保持7.4%的早期预测。

The reasons:

原因如下：

The latest GDP growth numbers

+ seemed to have spooked rating agencies. The economy grew at a slower-than-expected rate of 7.1% in the second quarter despite a lower base, prompting analysts to cut growth estimates for the full year. The second half of the financial year (October to March) may also not fare much better given that the effect of high oil prices and a weak rupee will be reflected with a lag.

最新的GDP增长数据似乎吓坏了评级机构。尽管基数较低，但第二季度经济增速低于预期，为7.1%，这促使分析师下调了全年增长预期。鉴于油价高涨和卢比疲软的影响将在一定程度上滞后，本财年下半年(10月至3月)的表现可能也不会好多少。

Among the other risks the analysts mention — liquidity squeeze in the non-banking financial space, Some of it has to do with global factors like a forecast of lower global trade and GDP growth that will have an impact on emerging economies.

分析师们提到的其他风险包括非银行金融领域的流动性短缺，其中一些风险与全球因素有关，比如全球贸易和GDP增长放缓的预测，这些因素将对新兴经济体产生影响。

The good news: Many of the factors that pulled down the economy are improving— liquidity has improved, high crude oil prices have come down, the rupee has strengthened.

好消息是:许多拖累印度经济的因素正在改善——流动性有所改善，高原油价格下降，卢比走强。

The higher growth in the first half of the year and softer crude prices will allow the government to show a recovery from 6.7% growth last fiscal as it heads into elections next year.

今年上半年的高速增长和原油价格的疲软将使政府在明年大选前从上个财政年度6.7%的增长中复苏。

印度时报读者评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46771.html  译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/why-is-everyone-cutting-indias-gdp-growth-forecast/articleshow/67000519.cms

AROP - 21 days ago -Follow

T0I is always interested in negativity, idiot last three months is election time, due to guide line of EC, you can''t start new projects. Without starting new project how come economy grows? The editorial board is unable to understand this simple logic like Papu!!!

《印度时报》总是这么消极，最后三个月是选举时期，不能开始新项目，没有启动新项目，经济如何增长?这样简单的逻辑，小编都理解不来，就跟拉胡尔一样!!!

Truth - 21 days ago -Follow

Western backed rating agencies are rogues! Lets spew spit on their face if this prediction is incorrect.

西方支持的评级机构都是无赖!如果这个预言是错误的，让我们朝他们脸上吐唾沫吧。

Vasant - Bhopal - 21 days ago -Follow

Our GDP growth is still as good as and many times more than Pakistan or any of our other neighbours.

我们的GDP增速仍和一样强劲，比巴基斯坦乃至他任何邻国的强好几倍。

Chandrashekhar - nepal - 21 days ago -Follow

if unfortunately PAPPU comes power india is going to dogs just like pakistan

如果不幸让拉胡尔上台了，那印度也会像巴基斯坦一样一蹶不振。

Arnav Ghosh - 21 days ago -Follow

I think even state govt has to show projects to contribute to GDP and job creation. We can''t leave everything to centre

我认为邦政府也必须干出一些项目来，为GDP和创造就业做出贡献，凡事不能总依赖印度中央政府。

Srini - hyd - 21 days ago -Follow

The loss to economy due to demonetization is more than all scams combined

废钞令给经济造成的损失超过了所有诈骗的总和

Sarab Johar - 21 days ago -Follow

Barring lower crude prices actual growth would have been much lower if actual base was taken..

除非原油价格下跌，否则如果以实际基数计算，实际增长率会低得多。

Champala - 21 days ago -Follow

all credit goes to chaiwala and his disastrous unthought foolish policies.

一切都拜莫迪及其灾难性的愚蠢政策所赐。

Only India - Thane - 21 days ago -Follow

Simple too much of Gobar Mootra talks and nonsense lynching of innocents by some stupid BJP leaders

说了太多的大话，还有一些愚蠢的人民党领导人对无辜者处以私刑

Abvp - 21 days ago -Follow

Because of mismanagement, misgovernance and mayhem created by BJP-led government in all-around spheres of business world. Demonetization and GST has killed the rise of India in every manner. Now market is down and out. Sweating out of fear. This is reality one Indian has to face today.

因为印度人民党领导的政府在商界的各个领域造成了管理不善、治理不当和混乱。废钞令和商品及服务税以各种方式扼杀了印度的崛起。现在市场已经萎靡不振了，这是印度人今天必须面对的现实。

Amit Kumar Sharma - Israel - 21 days ago -Follow

MODI THE ILLITERATE PRIME MINISTER OF GREAT COUNTRY HAS FAILED AND CHEATED THE PEOPLE OF INDIA

这个伟大国家目不识丁的总理莫迪失败了，他欺骗了印度人民

Amit Kumar Sharma - Israel - 21 days ago -Follow

MODI WILL BE NOW KICKED BY AMBANIS ALSO

现在，莫迪将被安巴尼踢出局。

Senthil - chennai - 21 days ago -Follow

Because Joomla AYog used joomla formula to cook GDP numbers to suit the taste of their big boss

因为他们改公式来计算GDP数据，以迎合领导的要求。

Ajithlal Gangadharan - 21 days ago -Follow

For this govt growth is all about changing base years. If the actual growth in the financial year is 7% they will change the base year and make it 8.5% and jump from floor to ceiling. If there is real growth it would be felt by the people. So its better modi & co learn the basics.

对于政府来说，增长就是改变基准年。如果本财年的实际增长率为7%，他们将改变基准年，使其达到8.5%，并从最低调到最高。如果真正有增长，人民是会感觉到的。所以莫迪最好还是去学一些基础知识。