Modi may struggle to win majority in polls, says Fitch Solutions

惠誉解决方案称，莫迪要在大选中赢得多数选票或会很“吃力”

By Iain Marlow

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will “struggle” to win a simple majority in India’s upcoming general election and the opposition Congress party has a “fair chance” at forming government with support from regional allies, according to Fitch Solutions Macro Research.

据惠誉解决方案宏观研究公司称，印度总理莫迪在即将到来的大选中要想赢得多数选票将会很吃力，而反对党国大党则有“很大的机会”在地区盟友的支持下组建政府。

Neither of the country’s main national parties is likely to get a majority in the lower house of the parliament, the affiliate of Fitch Ratings said. That means both will have to try and cobble together a coalition with regional parties at a time when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has disagreements with many large “potential kingmaker parties,” Fitch Solutions said.

该机构表示，该国两大主要政党都不太可能在议会下院获得多数席位。惠誉称，这意味着在执政的印度人民党与许多“潜在的拥王党”存在分歧之际，两党都将不得不尝试与地区性政党组建联盟。

“We at Fitch Solutions are bucking the overwhelming consensus at this juncture that the BJP will most likely form the next government after the upcoming elections,” Fitch said in a report on Thursday. The Indian National Congress party, headed by Rahul Gandhi, has a fair chance of marshaling a coalition government, it added.

惠誉在周四的一份报告中称，"惠誉解决方案不认同当前压倒性的共识，即印度人民党最有可能在即将到来的选举能组建下届政府。由拉胡尔·甘地领导的国大党很有机会组建联合政府。”

The BJP’s recent populist spending efforts, including a farmer income support program, will have a “minimal effect” on swinging voters to its side, the group said, adding that a deadly attack in Kashmir allows the ruling party to “drum up nationalistic sentiment and to rally the electorate behind the BJP.”

该机构称，印度人民党最近的民粹主义，包括一项农民收入支持计划，将对争取选民支持该党产生“极小的影响”，并补充说，在克什米尔发生的袭击使执政党能够“煽动民族主义情绪，团结选民支持印度人民党”。

Modi’s party lost three state elections to the Congress party in December and various polls in India have shown declining support for Modi and the BJP. For example, a recent India Today poll predicted the ruling National Democratic Alliance coalition could fall short of the majority mark in India’s 543-seat parliament and win 237 seats, down from the 336 seats the grou won in the 2014 federal election.

去年12月，莫迪所领导的人民党在3个邦的选举中输给了国大党。印度的各种民调显示，莫迪和人民党的支持率不断下降。例如，《今日印度》最近的一项民调预测，执政的全国民*联盟(National Democratic Alliance)可能无法在印度议会543个席位中获得多数席位，预计将赢得237个席位，低于该联盟在2014年联邦选举中赢得的336个席位。

印度经济时报读者评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47104.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

外文： https://economictimes.indiatimes.com

Ramaswami Narayan

23 hours ago

forget Modi and elections. there is a limit for media hype and misleading public

忘了莫迪吧，忘了选举吧。媒体这样炒作去误导公众也应该有个度

Ken Nihon

23 hours ago

Didn''t this dame coterie say like this in 2014 and 2017 before UP.... And stop comparing the 3 recent elections in Raj, etc - there was local anti-incumbency and that is now over. Modi was not on the ballot for those 3 states.

在2014年和2017年北方邦选举之前，惠誉不也说过相同的话吗？不要再拿最近那3个邦（邦恰蒂斯加尔邦、中央邦和邦拉贾斯坦邦）的选举来比了，莫迪也不靠这3个邦。

Sanjiv Mitragotri

1 days ago

Foreign analysts and media houses along with home grown Libtards and presstitutes will start high pitch, high voltage campaigns to confuse the Indian electorate and voters. We should be wary of such malicious propaganda by vested interests.

外国分析人士和媒体机构，以及印度本土的自由主义者和媒体机构，将开始高调高强度宣传，混淆印度选民的视听。我们应该警惕既得利益集团的这种恶意宣传。

Thiyagu

1 days ago

Bloomberg usually achieve what they intend .. give room for anti-Modi gang to spit their venom and put the Pro-Modi gang on the defensive. Of them Mihi Verma is the expert attacker. He has vowed to write only against Modi and India. Nothing in this world can make this sworn pessimist happier than writing Modi is doomed to fail. But just a few more months .. Mihir and the entire Bloomberg team have to kill themselves when Modi wins

彭博社（文章为彭博社发布）总能达到他们的目的，给那些反对莫迪的团伙发牢骚的空间，让那些支持莫迪的团伙处于劣势。其中Mihi Verma是攻击专家，他发誓只写反对莫迪的文章，只写反对印度的文章。世界上没有什么比“写莫迪注定要失败”更能让这个坚定的悲观主义者更快乐的了。但是再过几个月，等到莫迪获胜之时，Mihir和整个彭博社团队不得不自行了断。

Deepak Mehrotra

12 hours ago

You are right .Modiji deserves credit for all that country has achieved in the last 71 years while the previous governments only resorted to tokenism. This is artful lying at best, or worst. It is nevertheless a huge fib.

过去71年里取得的成就，都归功于莫迪，而前几届印度政府只做了表面文章。说得好听点，这是巧言善辩，说得难听点，这就是弥天大谎。

Varadharajan Kannan

1 days ago

Modi govt will romp back to power for upkee "Sabkaa saath sabka vikas" in letter and spirit that benefits every section of society. Just 4 reforms to quote:1) ease of living with reduced taxes on essential commodities and services through GST2) increased formalization with historic tax base increase3) timely completion of infrastructure and social welfare projects like rural housing, railways and highways4) efficient and accountable administration for aam admi

莫迪政府将轻松重掌政权，他正在维护“团结在一起,共同发展”这一原则，造福社会的每一个阶层。列举4项改革:1)通过实行商品及服务税改革，降低了税收，改善了老百姓的生活  2)通过提高税基，使税收正规化 3)及时完成基础设施和社会福利项目，如农村住房、铁路和高速公路 4)政府实行高效和负责任的管理

Rajesh Shetty

1 days ago

But told u that we Indians bother about these things. On the other hand, his attempt to formalize the economy could cost him a next term

告诉你，我们印度人该为这些事操心。莫迪试图使经济正规化的努力可能会让他失去下一届任期。

Straight Bat

1 days ago

The report seems to have been prepared at the behest of congress party. The simple fact is but for rahul baba and his family and the typical congressmen / co unists and the usual suspects, the majority of the people (electorate) of this country are standing firmly behind Modi and would vote of BJP and we can see Mr.Modi back as PM. This is not only our wish but would also be the reality, come elections. This report might probably gladden the hearts of mamma mia, son and daughter and its intention seems to be suspect.

这份报告似乎是应国大党的要求而写的。明摆着的事实是，除了拉胡尔·甘地及其家族，国大党以及怀疑论者，这个国家的大多数选民都坚定地支持莫迪，他们会投印度人民党一票，我们会看到莫迪重新当选总理。这是我们的愿望，也将成为现实。这份报告可能会拉胡尔一家人感到高兴，其意图值得怀疑。

Showfast

1 days ago

modi has proved to be the biggest flop as a Prime Minister since India gained Independence. All 2014 promises were bluffs. Over that lie in broad daylight looking at the people straight into their eyes. Bring out fake economic numbers which nobody ca verify and think people are fools and believe them. People of the country have realized all this. Which is why BJP has lost in 5 state elections held in Nov 2018.Their illiterate netas are aware of their impending defeat but still ostensibly pretending they are wng. The slap on their face in the next 45 days will be so bad that they will forget their way home.

事实证明，莫迪是印度独立以来最失败的总理。2014年的所有承诺都是虚张声势，睁眼说瞎话。他提供了一些没有人能核实的虚假经济数据，以为人们是傻瓜，会相信。这个国家的人民已经认识到这一切，所以人民党在2018年11月举行的5次邦选举中都败了。他们意识到自己即将失败，但表面上仍然假装他们在赢。在接下来的45天里，他们就等着被打脸吧。

Sunitha Sundarrajan

1 days ago

I am in favour of a BJP led government minus Modi will support from allies to form a coalition government.

我支持人民党领导的政府，不支持莫迪组建联合政府。

Sanjiv Mitragotri

23 hours ago

There are enough crooks within BJP as well, who will drive the country towards stone age. Any coalition of BJP or non-BJP will be disastrous for India and its future. Corruption is deep rooted in our system and cleansing has just started in the last 4-5 years. One can''t expect the roots of corruption grown over 65 years to be uprooted and pulled out in a period of 4-5 years. If India has to become one of the top 5 powers and be respected globally, then the changes initiated need to run the full course.

印度人民党内部也有很多骗子，他们把这个国家推向石器时代。人民党或非人民党联盟对印度及其未来都将是灾难性的。腐败在我们的制度中根深蒂固，在过去4-5年里才刚刚开始肃清。我们不能指望在4-5年的时间里根除在65年里滋生的腐败。如果印度要成为世界前五大强国之一，并在全球受到尊重，那么就需要全面变革。

Ram Prakash Shroff

1 days ago

The Country needs real Development not Talk, no welfare schemes can win an election.

这个国家需要真正的发展，空谈误国，光靠福利计划来吸引选民，是无济于事的，赢不了选举。

Somnath Ghosh

1 days ago

How is it that being Anti Modi is equated with Anti Indian by a category of people?

为什么有那么一群人把反莫迪等同于反印度呢?

Shekar Kurudi

1 days ago

Just looking at the headline one can be sure it’s doomsberg

只要看一眼标题，就能确定这是彭博社的文章。

Janardhan Rao

1 days ago

No ifs and buts , NDA is returning with more than 350.seats with BJP Itself wng 272 plus seats.

全国民*联盟将赢得350多个席位，强势回归，印度人民党自己将赢得272个以上席位，这是肯定的，没有“如果”和“但是”。

Looter Khangress

1 days ago

Modi has done record work for development of India. People of India are fully aware of zero corruption governance. A vote for anti-national Namazwaadis, Jihaadi trinamoolis, and pakistani khangresis is a shame and national waste.

莫迪为印度的发展做出了前所未有的贡献。投票给国大党人是一种耻辱。

Showfast

1 days ago

So get prepared for modi govt to be kicked out in the next 45 days. We will have a brand new non modi non BJP govt. Even if you dont like it. But No, Congress is not going to rule. It will be someone from the regional party who will become PM. Max 150 seats for modi and company. Get prepared.

莫迪政府要做好准备在未来45天内被赶下台。我们会有一个全新的非莫迪非人民党政府，即使你不喜欢。但执政的不会是国大党。将会有来自地区政党的人成为总理。莫迪和他的政党最多能得到150个席位。做好准备吧。

Shivaji The

217

1 days ago

all these are signs that BJP will storm back into power......

所有这些迹象都表明印度人民党将卷土重来，再次上台。

Sridhar Reddy

People know there is no one better than Modi to be a PM again.

没有人比莫迪更适合再次当选总理。

Deepak Mehrotra

Modi himself is aware that he has failed to deliver on promises made in 2014. The freshness that he once exuded has evaporated. It’s place has been taken by a fatigued claim : “I have done more in four years than what the previous government did in ten years.” From being the “The Alternative “ in 2014, Modi is now formally making a bid for another term by putting forth the “There Is No Alternative “ (TINA) card. This is a huge come- down for a person who not long ago was hailed as God’s Gift to India sent from heaven to rule in perpetuity. But the urban middle class which had backed him in 2014, believing he had shed his Hindutva baggage, and considered Modispeak on Vikas and Badlao as genuine, has no reason to back him again.

莫迪本人也意识到，他未能兑现2014年做出的承诺。他曾经散发出的新鲜感已经消失了。取而代之的是一种老生常谈的说法: “我在4年里所做的，比前一届政府在10年里所做的还要多。”从2014年的“替代方案”开始，莫迪现在正式提出“没有替代方案”(TINA)，争取连任。对于一个不久前还被誉为上天赐予印度的礼物的人来说，这是跌落神坛。但在2014年支持他的城市中产阶级认为他已经摆脱了印度教的包袱，因此没有理由再次支持他。

Ram

Modi has been the biggest flop. He has turned out be the worst PM ever of India. Because he was busy in optics than any real work. Most of the public has seen through the lies of Modi and will not be fooled again.

莫迪是是印度有史以来最失败的总理，不干实事。大多数公众已经看穿了莫迪的谎言，不会再被愚弄了。

Ruchir Goyal

1 days ago

So whom will they back if not Modi??? Modi may not have delivered everything he promised but still he has delivered many times more than all others... He is way ahead of all others in popularity even today...

如果不支持莫迪，他们能支持谁?莫迪可能没有兑现他的承诺，但他的承诺比其他所有人都多很多倍。即使在今天，他的受欢迎程度也远远超过其他人。