Real GDP growth 2.5% lower than official: Ex-CEA Subramanian

印度前首席经济顾问表示：印度GDP实际增速比官方数据低2.5%

India's gross domestic product growth rate has been overstated by about 2.5 percentage points per year post 2011, former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian has said in a research paper, prompting economists to doubt the size of the claimed overestimation, and the government to defend the data .

印度前首席经济顾问阿尔温德·苏布兰马尼安在一份研究报告中称，自2011年以来，印度GDP年增长率被高估了约2.5个百分点，这促使经济学家怀疑数据被高估了，而政府则为这些数据辩护。

Subramanian also called for revisiting the entire methodology and implementation for GDP estimation by an independent task force, comprising national and international experts.

苏布兰马尼安还呼吁由专家组成的独立工作组重新审查GDP算法和计算过程。

"....instead of reported average growth of 6.9% between 2011 and 2016, actual growth was more likely to have been between 3.5% and 5.5%. Cumulatively, over five years, the level of GDP might have been overstated by about 9-21%," Subramanian said in his paper, published by the Center for International Development at Harvard University.

苏布兰马尼安在哈佛大学国际发展中心发表的论文中表示：“2011年至2016年印度GDP的平均增长率为6.9%，而实际增长率更有可能在3.5%至5.5%之间。累积起来，五年内，GDP水平可能被高估了9-21%。”

"It is just a claim in a newspaper article. There may be some overestimation, but whether the overestimation is large or not is difficult to tell," Sudipto Mundle, distinguished fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, told TOI. The new GDP methodology uses corporate data from the ministry of corporate affairs MCA-21 database, which some experts have said is flawed and needs a review.

国家应用经济研究委员会的杰出研究员Sudipto Mundle对《印度时报》表示：“ 这只是报纸文章的说法。可能会有一些高估，但很难判断是否高估了很多。”

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47822.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

arif • 10 hours ago

This guy is Raghurajan''s friend and he lost the job; so obviously tying to take a little revenge.

这家伙是拉詹（前印度央行行长）的朋友，他丢了工作，很明显是想报复。

Anand Mirle • BLR • 5 hours ago

This guy Arvind Subramaniam does not know that elections are over.Opposition has not learned that those techniques haven''t worked and will not work...

这家伙不知道选举已经结束了。反对派还没有意识到这种伎俩已经不管用了，也不会起作用。

Munna Bhai • Delhi • 11 hours ago

This claim made by Ex MEA officer is just a attention seeker and some cheap publicity stunt. World Bank and World financial bodies has quite streamlined process for estimating and tracking the GDP growth rate of countries specifically India and are closely monitored by investors so World Bank data is more trusted source when it comes to GDP and that is inline with what government has published. Not sure why this EX MEA officer kept quite all this time since 2011 till now.

这位前首席经济顾问只是为了博关注，是宣传噱头。世界银行和世界金融机构已大大简化了估算各国GDP增长率的程序，特别是印度和，受到投资者的密切监控，因此世界银行的GDP数据更可信。为什么这位前首席经济顾问从2011年到现在一直保持沉默，到现在才提出来？

Lord Prosperity• 8 hours ago

World Bank and IMF estimates are not at all accurate as the govt''s number itself who have all the data while these bodies don''t. Don''t spread ignorance if you have no idea.

世界银行和国际货币基金组织的数据根本就不准确。政府才掌握所有数据，而这些机构没有。不知道就不要乱说。

bhartiya singh• 8 hours ago

NOT ONLY GOVT DATA BUT DATA FROM VARIOUS INDEPENDENT INTERNAL AS WELL EXTERNAL SOURCES INCLUDING INDUSTRIES, OVERSEAS TRADE, FARM SECTORS, NGOs etc ARE COLLECTED, COLLATED AND ANALYZED BY IMF. Pls have a few understanding of IMF working independently before shooting from the hip.

国际货币基金组织不仅收集政府数据，还收集工业、海外贸易、农业部门、非政府组织等各种独立的内部和外部来源的数据，进行整理和分析。在胡说八道之前，请先了解一下国际货币基金组织的独立运作。

Gadkari • 10 hours ago

Everything is FAKE in FEKU Government.

莫迪政府的一切都是假的。

Nationcomesfirst• Mother INDIA • 9 hours ago

Get a job and don''t be a burden

去找份工作吧，不要成为国家的负担

sam mm• 9 hours ago

Govt is not having jobs to give

政府不给提供工作岗位

Naveed Khan • Naveed Khan • Chennai • 10 hours ago

Modi Government has been exaggerating GDP growth figures and under reporting Inflation

莫迪政府一直在夸大GDP增长数据，并隐瞒通胀数据

Priti Shilpa• 10 hours ago

dont talk about UPA. Gulams are hurt.

Even if you take it 2.5 less then also NDA performs better. And moreover all independent international organizations accept that Indian gdp is growing at a rate of approx 7% per year

即使增速减去2.5%，印度人民党表现也比国大党好。此外，独立的国际组织都承认印度GDP正以每年7%的速度增长

Mujeer • 5 hours ago

If GDP IS below even 4% it means India is not a develo nation!!! The Govt must come clean on this!!! Corruption, terrorism, crime, unemployment, rise in imports, BOP is all on the rise!! where are the Ache din??? also where r the 15 lakh to every Indian promised by Mr Modi???

GDP增速低于4%，意味着印度不是一个发展家!

莫迪承诺给每位印度人发的150万卢比呢??

Jaipur • 4 hours ago

When did he promise 15 lakhs , you pro- congress , Congress appeased/pampered stooge.

莫迪什么时候承诺给每个人发150万卢比了？

Vikram • 11 hours ago

Interesting...he kept quite for 5 years and now suddenly he is speaking out..

有趣，他沉默了5年，现在突然开口说话了…

Naveed Khan • Naveed Khan • Chennai • 11 hours ago

Every country has flawed methodology of GDP and inflation calculations. India methods are more flawed than others.

每个国家的GDP和通胀计算方法都存在瑕疵，印度的GDP算法问题比其他国家更严重而已。

Akr• 9 hours ago

Really ! you are from Mars

真的吗？你来自火星的吧

Murali Raghavan • 2 hours ago

Subramaniam has no integrity. He should have told this when he was in the Government and should have resigned if his views were not accepted then. Now he is out to spoil the reputation of Modiji’s Government and this is not acceptable. His comments would please and they may give him some assignment. Modiji should ignore his comments and not respond at all.

这家伙不诚实。他在位的时候就应该告诉大家，如果当时他的观点没有被接受，他就应该辞职。现在他想破坏莫迪政府的声誉，这是不可接受的。他的言论会讨喜欢。莫迪应该无视其言论，不要回应。

James George• 1 hour ago

May be he was paid until now to keep shut

估计他是收了封口费吧，现在没给了才开口。

Feku • 3 hours ago

Bhartiya Jhooti party has yet again been caught red handed. They are just trying to fool public by manipulating data and showing make in India and GDP growing. Ask any foreign organisations if they want to work in India, their answer will be no.

印度人民党又一次被逮个正着。人民党试图操纵数据，制造GDP增长的假象，愚弄公众。你随便问一家外国机构，是否想在印度发展，回答都是否定的。

RAVINDRA DUVVURI• 5 hours ago

What was he doing as Chief Economic Adviser? Why should we believe him now?

他当首席经济顾问时做了什么?我们现在为什么要相信他呢?

jai hind • 5 hours ago

why did he not speak or inform the govt rather than trying to cast doubt post fact.? raises doubt about his motive.

为什么他不直接告知政府，而在事后质疑。这让人怀疑他的动机。

Krishna • 7 hours ago

Just go by IMF & World Bank''s numbers.

去看看国际货币基金组织和世界银行的数据就知道了。

Bobby Ganesh • Mumbai • 7 hours ago

The whole world suspected this all along and now the former Chief Economic Advisor confirms it. But its too late now all the bhakts who blindly believed BJP/RSS’s nonstop lies have voted them back. Only God Shiva can save India from these lunatics now

全世界一直都怀疑我们的GDP数据，现在这位前首席经济顾问证实了这一点，但为时已晚，很多人把票投给了人民党。现在只有湿婆神才能把印度从这些疯子手中拯救出来。

thiruMumbai • 8 hours ago

Economy is in bad situation under modi,

莫迪领导下的经济形势很糟糕，

Chander • 1 hour ago

GDP figures are just a measurement. Even if it shows 20% growth but If the public doesn't see any improvement on the ground, it is meaningless. But if the public sees real improvement in their lives, then even 7% growth is good.

GDP数据只是一个衡量指标。即使数据上经济增长了20%，但是民众的生活没有改善，那也毫无意义。如果民众的生活有了真正的改善，那么即使7%的增长也是实在的

Jnknws • Timbaktu • 2 hours ago

The moot point is why he did not raise this when he was with the govt for almost 3 years? In fact he was defending these numbers then. So what changed now and who set him up? He needs to come clean.

他在政府任职近3年，当时怎么不提出质疑?事实上，他当时是支持这些数据的。现在为什么改口了，是谁指使他的?他应该坦白。