Arvind Subramanian defends his GDP overestimation argument

阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚坚称：印度GDP增长率被高估了

Defending his argument that India's GDP growth overestimated by 2.5%, former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian said that he had used a specific framework to validate GDP from demand side. He also said that tools like GDP deflator could have been underestimated.

Lending more credence to his GDP argument, he said that no country has grown over 7 per cent with exports below 5 per cent.

India's sustained high GDP growth post 2011, despite macro shocks unlike large emerging markets an indicator, said former CEA.

前首席经济顾问阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚坚称印度GDP增长率被高估了2.5%，称他采用了特别的结构，从需求方面验证GDP。他还表示，GDP平减指数等工具可能被低估了。

他表示，没有哪个国家能在出口低于5%的情况下GDP增长超过7%，这更印证了他有关GDP的观点。

前首席经济顾问表示，尽管遭受了宏观冲击，但与其他大型新兴市场不同的是，印度在2011年后GDP持续高速增长。

In his latest research paper, the former chief economic advisor said India’s GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was probably bumped up by about 2.5 per cent.

Days after Arvind Subramanian's argument, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) came out with an eight-point rebuttal to the former chief economic advisor claims on growth estimates.

The PMEAC rebuttal read "given the fact that his paper lacks rigour in terms of specific data sources and description, alternative hypothesis, rationale of equation specifications, use of dummies, and robustness-check diagnostics of estimated equations, and choice of countries in the sample and a specific list, it would not stand the scrutiny of academic or policy research standards."

在他最新的研究报告中，这位前首席经济顾问表示，印度2011年至2012年、2016年至2017年的GDP增速可能被高估了约2.5%。

在阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚发表上述言论几天后，印度总理经济顾问委员会对这位前首席经济顾问有关经济增长预期的说法提出了8点反驳。

印度总理经济顾问委员会反驳“鉴于他的论文在具体数据来源和描述、替代假设、计算方式的基本原理、样本和国家选择等方面缺乏严谨性，因此不符合学术或政策研究标准的审查标准。”

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/48027.html     译者：Joyceliu

外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com

Inder Jeet Giroh

M/s Chidrambrurm, Rehuram Rajan,Arvind Subramanian and Dr Manmohan Singh ji were at the helm of affairs, huge bublic funds were given to unscrupulous people. The data was shown as 11 per cent growth. The sectors like Agriculture, Micro Small and Medium industry were ignored. Thus those dishonest entities who were given huge loans without any scrutiny, defrauded the public and siphoned of funds to foreign lands.This had been continuing for too long. The Econmy was mishandled. The benifit of loans did not result in creating employment. An artificial narrative was engineered that the Economy was growing at a faster rate. Now it is well known that huge NPAS are due to dishonest and corrupt bankers, political entities as well as Govt functioneries. The Banking Sector has been damaged to such an extent that it will take a lot of time before it regain s good health. I am at a loss how people like Chidrambrurm and others are criticising the present Government regularly by writing articles in some prominent News Papers. I would request such gentlemen to allow the present authorities to cure the past ills so that we attain a rapid all round growth.

Chidrambrurm、Rehuram Rajan、Arvind Subramanian和Manmohan Singh ji博士掌管着事务，大量的泡沫资金被授予寡廉鲜耻的人身上。数据显示，经济增长了11%。农业、微型中小企业等行业被忽略了。因此，那些没有经过审查就被授予巨额贷款的不良企业，欺骗了公众，并把资金抽向国外。这种情况已经持续太久了。贷款带来的收益并没有创造就业。一种捏造的说法是，经济正在以更快的速度增长。现在众所周知，庞大的不良资产是由无信和腐败的银行家、政治实体以及政府职能部门造成的。银行业受到如此严重的损害，要想恢复活力还需要很长时间。我不知道像Chidrambrurm这样的人是如何通过在知名报纸上发表文章，定期批评现任政府的。我请求这些先生们允许现在的当局疗愈过去的痼疾，以便我们实现全面的迅速增长。

 ashok desai

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN IS TOTALLY WRONG. HE HAS NO IDEA OF INDIAN SCINORIO.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of final goods and services produced within a given country''s borders. It is the most popular method of measuring an economy''s output and is therefore considered a measure of the size of an economy.SERVICE IS NOT MEASURED IN INDIA, AS 85% LABOUR FORCES ARE IN UNORGANISED SECTORS AND NOT COUNTED.SMALL EXAMPLE:MY SERVANT WORKS IN SIX HOUSEHOLDS AND EARNS 36,000 PER MONTH = RS. 432000/- PER YEAR. MY COOK - SHEE WORKS FOR SEVEN FAMILIES AND EARNS 45000/- PER MONTH = 540,000/- PER YEAR.MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF SUCH PERSONS ARE WORKING.MILLIONS ARE WORKING IN AGRICULTURE SECTORS,MILLIONS WORKS IN SMALL FACTORIES AND HANDICRAFT INDUSTRIES AND ARE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR.REAL GDP OF INDIA IS NOT LESS THAN 12% - TAKING ALL GOODS AND SERVICES - CORRECTLY ACCOUNTED FOR.

阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚完全错了。他对印度的情况一无所知。国内生产总值(GDP)衡量的是一个国家境内生产的最终产品和服务的总价值。它是衡量经济产出的最主流的方法，因此被认为是衡量经济规模的手段。印度没有对服务业进行统计，因为85%的劳动力来自无组织的部门，并没有计算在内。举个例子：我的佣人在六户人家工作，每月收入36000卢比，也即432000卢比每年。我的厨师为7个家庭工作，月薪45000，也即54万每年。这样的劳动者有数以百万计。还有数以百万计的人从事农业部门、小工厂和手工业的工作，但没有被统计在内。印度的实际GDP(包括所有商品和服务)肯定不会低于12%。

Srinivasan Venkataraman

This govt is not renewing your contract .You can go to USA . We dont want you. We know how to take care of ourselves. A traitor should not bother to teach us right and wrong

政府不会续聘你的。你可以去美国。我们不需要你。我们知道如何照顾自己。你这个卖国贼，不用费心教我们分辨对错。

Sundarv

Leaving aside the specifics of the claims made by Arvind Subramanian, the general impression is that the figures have been overstated in recent years. The claims of high growth remain suspect.

撇开阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚声明的细节不谈，总体印象是，这些数字近年来确实被夸大了。高增长的说法仍然令人怀疑。

Inder Jeet Giroh

I am in complete support of views stated by MrKabir Kakkar.

我完全支持卡比尔·卡卡尔先生所说的观点。

The Other Angle

At least someone is speaking the truth. Better late than never

至少有人在说真话。亡羊补牢，为时未晚。

Ajit Grewal

We know who have been providing false information and promises to India - this is a ridiculous debate

我们知道是谁一直在向印度提供虚假信息和承诺——这是一场荒谬的辩论。

indian010101

The internet army of the current govt will ensure that no criticism is permitted. The govt is always right and performs wonderfully. Everyone else will be questioned on motives and competence.

现任政府的互联网水军会确保网上不能出现任何负面评论。政府总是对的，而且表现出色。其他所有人的动机和能力都会被他们质疑。

aishvaraya gupta

too late for all this, manipulated data fudging will go on

但为时已晚的是，被操纵的数据造假还将继续。

Aditya Loha

So now he has more knowledge than others, that also at this time. Where was he earlier when data was coming similar in previous years

这么说，现在他比别人更懂咯。那么前几年数据高估时，他在哪儿呢？

MANOJ MISRA

Country like India cannot be able to grow export over 5 percent and still it can have GDP over 7 percent. Because of demand side growth due to its youth population and most populous country in the world.Dr Subramanian should relook into his economics.

像印度这样的国家，出口增长不可能超过5%，但其国内生产总值是可能超过7%的。因为印度的年轻人口多，人口总量大，需求方面的增长很强劲。Subramanian博士应该重新审视他的经济学理论了。

Charu

exports were growing at 15-25% from 2005 to 2012, except during 2008-09 Gloval Financial Crisis

2005年至2012年，除了2008年至2009年全球金融危机，印度的出口增长了15%至25%。

Dinesh Babu Vivaramneni

These are all manipulated ones.. Truth will never be known

这些都是被操纵的数据。真相永远不会为人所知。

Kabir Kakkar

When Arvind was enjoying the perks of Govt. of India he chose to stay silent. If people of his stature and power decide that they will serve their self interest before that of the nation then what chance do normal bureaucrats have of being neutral and non-partisan. Now when he has relinquished his position and is safely settled in his well paying job in the US, he suddenly decides to show the world what an honest and upright person he is by speaking about the GDP numbers being wrong. Shame on him and on all those like him who serve only their self interests. If he had spoken during his tenure the world would have respected him. Now he is just making a laughing stock of himself and of our country. I don’t care bit about his reputation. But I do care about India’s image. He should be brought back to India and made to speak before a parliamentary panel and explain his double-speak and what was the reason his tongue was held in check while he sat and enjoyed all the perks of power.

当Arvind享受印度政府的津贴时，他保持沉默。如果像他这样的地位和权力的人决定考虑优先自己的利益，而非国家的利益时，那么普通的官员又怎么会保持中立、无党派呢？现在，当他放弃了自己的职位，在美国安享高薪工作后，他突然决定向世界证明自己是个多么诚实正直的人，因为印度的GDP数据是错误的。他和所有像他一样只考虑一己之利的人都是可耻小人。如果他在任期内发表这个言论，全世界都会敬重他。现在他让我们和我们的国家成了笑柄。我一点也不在乎他的名声。但我确实关心印度的形象。应该把他带回印度，让他解释他的两套言论是怎么回事，并解释清他在职时享受过权力带来的什么好处，让他当时保持了缄默。

M Sitaram

Modi is hiding behind a big mountain of manipulative statistics conjured up to defend his govt and whatever growth achieved. Whatever GDP statistics and efforts made to defend Rafael deal are no different. No wonder Modi chose ace defender of Rafael as his FinMin to continue the show.

莫迪正躲在一大堆人为操纵的统计数字背后，用这些统计数字捍卫他的政府，以及印度所取得的任何增长。无论国内生产总值数据如何，为拉斐尔交易辩护的努力如何，都没有什么不同。

Mahesh

5% is Realistic. We can easily get to 10%. Call me.

真实情况应该是5%。很容易达到10%。

Kavi Tanna

Umm, unlike , India is led by domestic economy not exports. This is working in our favor given trade war. Modi is right to focus on domestic economy to insulate ourselves from problems outside of India. We must be self reliant before the great depression hits the U.S.

嗯，跟不同的是，印度是由国内经济主导，而非依赖出口主导。考虑到贸易战，这种形势对我们有利。莫迪专注于国内经济，把自己与印度以外的问题隔离开来，这是正确的。在大萧条袭击美国之前，我们必须自力更生。

Sreenivasa Rao

But for Balakot and the stupidity of Saeed, the election result of 2019 would certainly have been different. With such poor economic growth, there would not have been any chance of the ruling party coming back to power with such huge margins and numbers.

如果不是巴拉克和赛义德的愚蠢，2019年的选举结果肯定会有所不同。在经济增长如此糟糕的情况下，执政党不可能以如此巨大的优势和票数重新掌权。

Shivashankrappa Balawat

You were part of the Govt that too as CEA. Why could you have the courage to bring it up when you had the authority. Very unethical behaviour

你也曾是政府的一员。你既然当时有权力，为什么要等到现在才有勇气提出来呢？这是一种非常不道德的行为。

Ravindra Gondhalekar

It is really surprising that Arvind Subramanian financial advisor & Raghuram Rajan first as economic adviser and later as RBI Governor were at the helm of economic activities during their tenure didn''t address various issues at that time and now offering comments, does this mean that they have fooled government of the day and Nation even though they are supposed to be intelligent.

真的很奇怪，财务顾问Arvind Subramanian& Raghuram Rajan首先是经济顾问，后来出任央行主管，他们曾经主管经济活动，但在他们的任期内没有解决各种问题，现在却评头论足，这是否意味着他们曾经愚弄了政府和国家，他们应该很聪明，但又如何。

divakarmahale

Such could be avoided if you start employing Indian qualified economists instead of imported economists like Arvind Subramaniam

如果政府雇佣合格的印度经济学家，而非阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚这样的进口经济学家，这种情况本是可以避免的。

Ranjan Sapra

And a finance minister who was not an economist !

还有一个不是经济学家的财政部长！

Sanjay Chowdhury

Mr. AS, please stop your research. I have learnt from my parents, don''t try to argue with a bus conductor. Whatever the theory may be, the practical life is something different.

AS先生，请停止你的研究。我从我的父母那里学到了，不要试图和公共汽车售票员争论。理论是理论，实操是实操，他们是不同的。

RAVINDRA DUVVURI

Arvind Subramanian, will you please shut up?

阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚，你能闭嘴吗？

Hemant Pisat

Dear AbS please ignore India now, this government will not give you any credence as the hiding game will continue. We wish to work on designed and fabricated data instead of established numbers. Currently sailing smooth and suddenly will fall into whirlpool.

亲爱的阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚，请不用理财印度，这个政府不会给你任何信任，因为遮遮掩掩的游戏将继续下去。我们希望编造粉饰和伪造的数据，而不是真实的数字。目前局面还算平稳，但会突然间陷入漩涡。

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