India enters 37-year period of demographic dividend

印度进入将持续37年的人口红利期

Since 2018, India’s working-age population (people between 15 and 64 years of age) has grown larger than the dependant population — children aged 14 or below as well as people above 65 years of age. This bulge in the working-age population is going to last till 2055, or 37 years from its begng.

自2018年以来，印度的劳动人口(15岁至64岁之间)的增长超过了受抚养人口——也就是14岁以下儿童以及65岁以上人口。劳动人口的增长将持续到2055年，即持续37年。

Many Asian economies — Japan, , South Korea — were able to use this ‘demographic dividend’, defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) as the growth potential that results from shifts in a population’s age structure. This transition happens largely because of a decrease in the total fertility rate (TFR, which is the number of births per woman) after the increase in life expectancy gets stabilised.

许多亚洲经济体——日本、、韩国——都曾利用了这种“人口红利”，联合国人口活动基金(UNFPA)将其定义为人口年龄结构变化所带来的增长潜力。这种转变主要是由于预期寿命的增长稳定后，总生育率(TFR，即每位妇女生育的数量)的下降。

Japan was among the first major economies to experience rapid growth because of changing population structure. The country’s demographic-dividend phase lasted from 1964 to 2004. An analysis of the first 10 years since this phase shows how such a shift in the population structure can propel growth. In five of these years, Japan grew in double digits; the growth rate was above 8% in two years, and a little less than 6% in one. Growth slid below 5% in only two of these 10 years.

日本是第一批经历快速增长的主要经济体之一。该国的人口红利期从1964年持续到2004年。对这一阶段头10年的分析表明，人口结构的这种转变是如何能推动增长的。在这五年中，日本经济以两位数增长;两年内经济增长率超过8%，其中一年略低于6%。在这10年里，只有两年的增长率低于5%。

entered this stage in 1994 — 16 years after Deng iao’s economic reforms started in December 1978. Although its growth accelerated immediately after the reforms, the years of demographic dividend helped sustain this rate for a very long period.

在1994年进入人口红利阶段，也就是1978年12月开始经济改革的16年后。尽管在改革之后，的经济增长才迅速加快，但多年的人口红利在很长一段时间内帮助维持了这一增长速度。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/48087.html

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

ab cd

demographic dividend is nothing but an illusion, what lies beneath is a huge problem. where there is acute shortage of resources, be it jobs, health o...

人口红利不过是一种假象，其背后隐藏着一个大问题，资源严重短缺，工作岗位和医疗设施不足等等

Joe Kool

There is no dividends.

根本没有什么人口红利

Sourav Mukherjee•Kolkata•2 hours ago •Follow

Ever growing population translates to ever growing pressure on basic resources required for human life. A balance is desired and time is running short.

不断增长的人口意味着基本生活资源越来越紧张。需要达到平衡，时间不多了。

Balasubramaniam V•Chennai•2 hours ago •Follow

Great news, that our population size is deemed to be a boon, rather than a bane. However we become all too excited and consider ourselves to be a upcoming super power

我们的人口规模庞大，被认为是好事，而不是坏事。我们太过兴奋了，认为自己即将成为超级大国。

Radha•Germany•3 hours ago

Our youths only following bollywood which is shame for India. 85 percent youths have no values. We lost our traditions and values. If we want to shine and become powerful we should work on our new generation. Otherwise there is no use of demographic dividend. Corruption is there because we give bribary, whole nation is dirty because we throw trash on streets. Todays Indian youths is busy in only branded cloths, eve teasing, love affairs which is not good for nation.

我们的年轻人热捧宝莱坞，这是印度的耻辱。85%的年轻人没有价值观。我们丧失了传统，丢失了价值观。

如果想变得强大，我们应该好好教育下一代。

否则，人口红利就一无是处。

我们行贿，滋生了腐败；我们在街上乱扔垃圾，搞脏了整个国家。今天的印度年轻人只忙着买名牌衣服，谈恋爱，这对国家没什么好处。

MrBoobs•Right Here•3 hours ago

is dead now. India will thrash

现在已经完了，印度将打败。

Anil•3 hours ago

population control is done by hindus and Sikhs only

只有印度教徒和锡克教徒控制生育。

Abhishek•3 hours ago

india fails miserably on all three quality primary education, health and jobs. we are going to miss this tide because politicians are busy filling their pockets or ensuring how to come to power.

印度的基础教育不行，医疗保障不到位，创造就业乏力。我们将错过这一人口红利，政客们正忙于填满自己的腰包

Sanjoy•3 hours ago

Where is quality education?? It is available for few

优质教育?只有少数人能享受

Peeush Trikha•India•3 hours ago

We cannot be assured of any immediate dividends unless we have Youth employed or self employed more productively. We need to change our Education system first - both at the Primary level and at Secondary Level.,Startups should be promoted more, and we also need to have a more strict birth control program.

除非年轻人能获得就业机会，或自己创业，否则这样的人口红利拿来干嘛。

我们首先要改变教育体制，包括小学教育和中学教育。推动创业，并执行更严格的计划生育政策。

Shubham Raj Singh•3 hours ago

All the young people rise up, and be ready to rule the world

印度年轻人都站起来吧，准备统治世界

Abhishek Oza•Mumbai•3 hours ago

demographic dividend is nothing but an illusion, what lies beneath is a huge problem. where there is acute shortage of resources, be it jobs, health or infrastructure, not to mention the Pollution and filth. India is practically sitting on a population time bomb which will explode sooner or later.

人口红利不过是一种假象，其背后隐藏着一个大问题，严重的资源短缺，无论是就业、还是基础设施，都不足，更不用说污染那么严重了。印度实际上是坐在人口定时炸弹上，迟早会爆炸。

Kvs• Abhishek Oza•3 hours ago

traditionally wars have been taking care of their overpopulation problems.

以前，战争能解决人口过剩的问题。

Ulhas•4 hours ago

Population control has become an unsavoury issue after the emergency. No way the problem can be tackled in an ELECTION DEMOCRACY that is India. Political parties like nothing better than showering the ever increasing population of GAON GAREEB VOTERS with freebies.

控制人口已成为一个问题。在印度这样的民*国家，这个问题是无法解决的。各政党最喜欢的莫过于向不断增加的选民赠送免费礼品。

Ulhas•4 hours ago

Although population explosion is the greatest problem, no political party talks about it EVER for the fear of losing votes.. Talk and baseless allegations of corruption is however the best way to fetch votes. Have you ever seen BJP & Modi ever talk of population as an important problem?

虽然人口爆炸是印度最大的问题，但是从来没有哪个政党谈论这个问题，因为害怕失去选票呗。

空谈是赢得选票的最佳方式。你见过人民党和莫迪讨论人口问题吗?

Secular Indian•Unknown•4 hours ago

Interesting to know-Good article.

好文章。很高兴知道这个消息。

Ulhas•4 hours ago

Population explosion is the GREATEST problem far ahead of other problems like CPRRUPTION. One recalls the words of Indiraji. "We would have been far better off if we were HALF the number." That was at a time when population was just 60 crores. 138 Crores today.

人口爆炸是最严重的问题，远远超过其他问题。回想起英迪拉的话：“如果我们的人口只有目前的一半，情况会好得多。”那时人口只有6亿，如今是13.8亿。

Ziax Ziax•Unknown•4 hours ago

The key is if India can gear up to provide good health, education and jobs

关键是印度能否加快步伐，保障民众的身体健康、并为之提供优质教育和充分的就业机会

继续阅读：人口红利   印度人口

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