印度“人口爆炸”问题不复存在，须避免强制性人口控制

India no longer has a “population explosion” problem. Coercive population control must be avoided

印度“人口爆炸”问题不复存在，须避免强制性人口控制

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech identified “population explosion” as a national challenge and asked for schemes to tackle it. Data released by the government suggests otherwise. India has long passed the stage of “population explosion”. What we are currently witnessing is a massive reduction in fertility rates without the use of coercive methods like the ones practised by in the past. The fourth National Family Health Survey (2015-16) showed that India’s total fertility rate was 2.2, a shade above the replacement rate of 2.1. The subsequent survey was carried out in 2018-19, and it’s plausible that when the results are released, India’s national fertility rate could be at replacement level.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在独立日演讲中指出，“人口爆炸”是国家面临的挑战，并要求制定应对方案。然而，政府发布的数据表明情况并非如此。印度早已经过了“人口爆炸”的阶段。我们目前所看到的是，在没有推行类似计划生育措施的情况下，印度的生育率大幅下降。第四次全国家庭健康调查(2015-16)显示，印度的总生育率为2.2，略高于2.1的更替率。随后的调查是在2018-19年进行的，其结果显示印度的全国生育率可能处于更替水平。

Given this situation, it would be unwise to devise any measure that smacks of coercion. It might prove counterproductive. Instead, the government should double down on its exsting program, ‘Mission Parivar Vikas’, which seeks to provide an enabling environment for people to make decisions in sync with national goals. It’s a matter of pride for India that fertility rates are declining fast on account of choices exercised by people. In addition to creating an enabling environment, the government needs to commission research on the regional patterns of fertility declines. The differences in the pace of fertility decline are regional, and not on account of religion. Research on why Odisha, for example, has a much lower fertility rate than Bihar, which is similar in terms of development indicators, will make for more informed policies in future.

在这种情况下，制定任何强制性人口控制措施都是不明智的，可能适得其反。相反，政府应该对其现有的“Mission Parivar Vikas”计划加大投入，该计划旨在为人们提供一个有利的环境，使他们能够做出与国家目标同步的决策。印度的生育率正在快速下降，这是人们自己的选择，这是值得骄傲的。除了创造有利的环境外，政府还需要对区域生育率下降模式进行研究。生育率下降速度的差异是区域性的，并不是因为宗教。例如，关于为什么奥里萨邦的生育率比比哈尔邦低得多的研究(比哈尔邦的发展指标与奥里萨邦相似)，这将有助于今后制定更加明智的政策。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/48258.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Nilesh K•20 hours ago

Low fertility is their among Hindu middle class they have only 1 baby these days while both husband and wife pays huge taxes...

印度中产阶级的生育率低，只有一个孩子，夫妻双方都要缴纳巨额税款，负担不起。

Sudesh Kumar Gupta•19 hours ago

Hindus in india follow family planning so their population will not increase much.

印度教徒遵循计划生育，所以印度教人口不会增长不多。

Euananil B•21 hours ago

India has a huge population problem you idiot ....

印度人口问题太严重了

Sadananda Halageri•Unknown•21 hours ago

I can't believe that a so called seasoned team could have written something like this.

我不敢相信一个所谓经验丰富的团队会写出这样的东西。

Haresh Rathod•20 hours ago

The editor don't understand the problem. And writing such idiotic piece. We have limited resources and against it the population is very high. Take the case of developed countries. They have huge resources and less population. Per capita resources very high unlike India.

作者不理解人口问题，写出这种文章。我们的资源有限，而人口非常多。发达国家恰恰相反，他们资源丰富，人口较少，人均资源非常多，

Raju Kalua•Location•18 hours ago

You are right, the editors are idiots. Just by looking at one statistics they have arrived at a conclusion that suits their agenda. When you have to take a decision you cannot just look at one statistics and ignore all others.

作者是白痴。仅仅通过一项统计数据，就得出这种结论。做决策时，不能只看一个统计数据，而忽视其他数据。

Surender Negi•New Delhi•20 hours ago

I Disagree. india national growth rate can't decide that the population problem of India is Mirage. Muslim population growth is 3.2 , while North India Hindu growth rate is 2.3 while South India hindu growth rate is 1.2 . We have unbalance growth rate to maintain diversity. Hence Population control for even small period such as 10byears is required and implemented.

我不同意。这不能说明印度不存在人口爆炸问题。印度北部的印度教徒生育率为2.3，而印度南部的印度教徒生育率为1.2。人口增长率不平衡，至少要再控制个10年。

Okman•India•15 hours ago

Avoid white lies.

善意的谎言。

A K Dharmarajan•20 hours ago

Quick Edit does not mean quick oppose.I am sure none of the fast and quick editors have travelled by Mumbai locals.Have you ever been inside a slum which has poor children.How did you conclude that control will be coercive?UP and Bihar are poor because of high population and high unemployment. Sad that nation's leading paper does not realise what is good for the nation.

我敢肯定，这些编辑中没有一个是孟买本地人。你们到过贫民窟吗?你们是如何得出人口控制是强制性的这个结论的?由于人口多、失业率高，北方邦和比哈尔邦才穷。遗憾的是，主流报纸没有意识到什么是对国家有利的。

Jeet Singh Beelwan•19 hours ago

This seems to be far from reality.why such editorial are allowed?Population is largest problem of this country. Country had a population of 30 crores in 1947 , now having 130 crores. Think 100 crores excess has taken away all development and prosperity of this country.We remain crowded in all places , dog fights in every street and sperm race in all fields is taking a big tol on quality of life.We don't value life because we have too many people

这似乎与现实相去甚远。为什么让这样的编辑撰写文章?

人口是印度最大的问题。1947年印度人口为3亿，现在有13亿。想想看，10亿的人口过剩已经带走了这个国家所有的发展和繁荣。全国各地都很拥挤，每条街道上都有斗殴。我们不重视人命，因为我们的人口太多了。

Varun Tomar•17 hours ago

There should be some checks and subsidy cut offs for those who have more than 2-3 children.

对于那些有2-3个以上孩子的家庭，应该进行审查，并削减补贴。

Ashok Bhasin•16 hours ago

Wonderful step by Modi govt to check rising indian population. Initially, one child parents should be honoured and poor parents incentivised with free health care, education etc. I do not mind if some coercion is usec to produce results . Ultimately, it will be to the benefit of poor in particular nd for country in general.

莫迪政府控制人口增长，做得好。首先，独生子女的父母应该得到尊重，经济条件不好的还应得到给免费医疗、教育等方面的奖励。我不介意使用一些强制手段来控制人口。

Rajagopalan Sambasivan•20 hours ago

Seems to be a paid article.

似乎是一篇花钱请人写的文章。

Aditya Sharma•18 hours ago

Who is the idiot writing this...

这文章是哪个笨蛋写的。