Why India’s 5 trillion GDP goal is drifting further away?

为何印度离5万亿GDP目标越来越远?

In 2017, Morgan Stanley — a multinational investment bank and financial services company — said in a report that India’s GDP will reach $5 trillion by 2025. The $5-trillion economy echoed in several speeches delivered after that. TOI analysed growth rate data (current prices, which is higher than the 5% growth rate at constant prices) announced for nine quarters starting from Q1 2017-18 to Q1 2019-20. The idea was to see how many years it will take from the end of Q1 2019-20, for India to reach the $5 trillion goal, if the GDP grows at the rate announced in the previous eight quarters.

2017年，跨国投资银行和金融服务公司摩根士丹利在一份报告中表示，到2025年，印度GDP将达到5万亿美元。在此之后的多次演讲中，5万亿经济体也多次被提及。《印度时报》分析了从2017-2018财年第一季度至2019-2020财年第二季度的9个季度的增长率数据，以推算从2019- 2020年第一季度末开始，若印度GDP以前八个季度宣布的增速增长，印度需要多少年才能达到5万亿美元的目标。

IN DOLLAR TERMS, INDIA'S GROWTH WAS THE SLOWEST AMONG MAJOR ECONOMIES

以美元计算，印度是主要经济体中增长最慢的

DESPITE SLOWER GROWTH RATE, CHINA'S NET ADDITION TO ITS GDP WAS 20 TIMES INDIA'S

尽管增速放缓，但的GDP净增长是印度的20倍

Despite slower growth rate, added $1,465 billion to its economy in 2018 against the previous year — 20 times India’s net addition of $74 billion. Similarly, other big economies added far more to their GDP than India.

2018年经济同比增长14650亿美元，是印度740亿美元净增长的20倍。同样，其他大型经济体的GDP增量也远远超过印度。

WHY 7% GROWTH RATE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INDIA

对印度来说，为何7%的增长率是不够的？

GDP alone doesn’t give the true picture about a country’s prosperity. A better yardstick is GDP per capita. With a per capita GDP of $2,036, India ranks 147 out of 192 countries. The 7% growth rate translates into 5.9% growth at the per capita level. At this rate, India will take 60 years to reach where the US stands today in terms of GDP.

GDP本身并不能反映一个国家繁荣的真实情况。更好的衡量标准是人均GDP。印度人均GDP为2036美元，在192个国家中排名147。GDP增长率为7%，而人均GDP增长率为5.9%率。按照这个速度，印度将需要60年时间才能达到美国目前的GDP水平。

CHINA IN ITS HIGH GROWTH PHASE TOOK GLOBAL CRISES IN ITS STRIDE

处于高速增长阶段的从容应对了全球危机

The rapid growth phase of economy started in 1982. Since then, there have been three global crises — the Gulf War (1990-1991), Asian economic crisis (1997) and the global financial crisis (2007-08). The Gulf War slowed down for a bit, but during other events, the economy grew at more than 8%.

经济的快速增长阶段始于1982年。此后，全球发生了三次危机——海湾战争(1990-1991)、亚洲经济危机(1997)和全球金融危机(2007-2008)。海湾战争使经济增速放缓了一段时间，但在其它几次危机中，经济增速超过了8%。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/48399.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Abhradip Kapri•2 hours ago

if illiterate people control the country this will happened.

一个国家是由文盲掌控的，结果就会这样。

TRUTH BE TOLD•You can't handle the Truth!!!•2 hours ago

2020 is almost here. As per the graph, the slowest will take India upto 2026 to reach 5 trillion dollars.

马上就快到2020年了。从图中可以看出，最迟到2026年印度将成为5万亿美元经济体。

Vinayak Naik•2 hours ago

India 2.8 trn dollars country today. If dollar down to 35 Rs tomorrow.....,Not 5, its 5.6 !!

目前印度经济规模是2.8万亿美元。如果明天美元兑卢比汇率跌到35卢比…那印度经济规模就是不止5万亿美元了，而是5.6万亿美元 !!

TRUTH BE TOLD•You can't handle the Truth!!!•2 hours ago

A lot of Indians would sit back in their chair and expect Modi to do everything. If anything doesn''t perform well as it should, its modi''s fault. That ways it easy to point finger at 1 man when over a billion people should be the ones doing their part as well.

很多印度人指望着莫迪代劳一切。做得不够好，那就是莫迪的错。十几亿印度人也应该尽自己的一份力量，不要把矛头指向一个人。

RVK 2012•2 hours ago

These economists knows nothing. Its good our leaders never went to school else we will also be a poor country like USA, Germany etc Actually our GDP is going 12% and it will be 10 trillion and then we will get 30 lakhs instead of 15 lakhs in our account. I am waiting and surviving for that day.

这些经济学家一无所知。幸好我们的领导人从来没有上过学，否则我们也会像美国、德国那样成为一个穷国。实际上，我们的GDP增速达到12%，印度将成为10万亿美元经济体，然后政府会往我们的账户上打300万卢比，不止是150万卢比。我在等待这一天的到来。

ariyagksk Tk•3 hours ago

We will Achieve Sure

我们一定会实现的

Aam aadmi•3 hours ago

Dream big to achieve big things

胸怀大志，成就大事

Maya Mahant•Pune-Maharastra•3 hours ago

Figures and graphs are great. And are based on all things remaining the same, figures are subject to interpretation and manipulation. There is something called ''unforseen circumstances''. Ground realities matter and timely corrective actions are important. Let''s be positive, non-judgemental, and trust the government who I believe has the best interest of the nation at heart.

数据和图表都很好看。数据是受操纵的。有一种叫做“不可预见的情况”。接受现实很重要，及时采取纠正措施也很重要。我们要积极点，不要抱着偏见，相信政府把国家的最大利益放在心上

HIMANSHU SHEKHAR•3 hours ago

We are poor but dilwale

我们虽然穷，但很慷慨

Simple Ordinary man•Location•3 hours ago

Achhche Dn Jaa rahe Hai...................?

“好日子”呢？

Aam aadmi• Sushil Kumar•3 hours ago

It''s duty of all Indians to make this dream come true. Just can''t stay idle and ask modi to deliver by his own

实现这个梦想，是所有印度人的责任。不能让莫迪一个人去实现这个目标

Neutron neutral•Earth•3 hours ago

Modi ji can never be blamed for this situation.

不能怪莫迪。

Sl•Secunderabad•3 hours ago

Modi n his previous n current finance minister are not entirely competent to deal with economy n financial issues...infact modi n arun n nirmala are driving india into a mess

莫迪前任财政部长没有能力处理经济和金融问题。莫迪、阿伦和西塔拉曼正在把印度搞得一团糟

Atilla Hun•www•3 hours ago

5 trillion was always just a mirage to hoodwink the nation , the reality is very grim

5万亿美元的目标，是个海市蜃楼，用来忽悠这个国家的，现实是非常残酷的

Kalki Brownbrahamin•singapore•3 hours ago

hahaha just laugh

哈哈哈，就是想笑

Bisaria Neeraj•3 hours ago

As long as head cook at the helm of affairs things won''t move retrograde GDP

只要莫迪在位，印度GDP就不会倒退

Kamalika Pandey•3 hours ago

Well, let''s see what steps the government takes to reverse the downturn of the economy.

好吧，让我们看看政府采取了哪些扭转经济下滑的措施。

Sl•Secunderabad•3 hours ago

Five trillion is another fraud n jumla by the ever lying team of politicians....India remains in the brink with huge population n unemployment n other uncertainty ...modi is untrustworthy when he talks

5万亿美元是政客们的又一个骗局。印度人口庞大，失业率居高不下。莫迪说话不靠谱！