Modi’s goal of a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is at risk

莫迪提出的2025年经济规模达到5万亿美元的目标岌岌可危

India’s slowdown and a simmering shadow banking crisis is putting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of crafting a $5 trillion economy by 2025 at risk.

The nation entered 2019 as the world’s sixth-biggest economy poised to become the fifth. Instead, it has slipped a notch to seventh place as a collapse in consumption slowed gross domestic product growth to the weakest in six years. External shocks from trade wars to surging oil prices are exacerbating that pain.

Troubled by the grim prospects, the central bank has lowered interest rates to a nine-year low and Governor Shaktikanta Das wants other stakeholders -- from the government to banks to the private sector -- to step up. But with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman facing lower revenue prospects that threaten her budget gap goal, the heavy lifting on stimulus appears to lie with the Reserve Bank of India. 

印度经济增长放缓，加上影子银行危机愈演愈烈，使得印度总理纳伦德拉莫迪在2025年前打造5万亿美元经济的目标岌岌可危。

2019年，印度成为世界第六大经济体，曾有望跻身第五大经济体。但由于消费暴跌导致国内生产总值增速放缓至6年来的最低水平，印度经济出现下滑，降至第7位。从贸易战到油价飙升带来的外部冲击正在加剧这种痛苦。

由于前景黯淡，印度央行已将利率降至9年来的最低水平。印度央行行长沙克提坎塔•达斯希望其他利益相关者—从政府到银行，再到私营部门—也能采取行动。但由于印度财政部长西塔拉曼面临的收入前景下滑威胁到她的预算缺口目标，刺激计划的重任似乎落在了印度央行的肩上。

Das may be able to ease a financing squeeze, but it’ll take delivery on big bang reforms to unlock the productivity gains needed to power the economy toward Modi’s goals. While his return to office this year with a bigger mandate stoked expectations among investors for bolder reforms, that hope is fading 100 days into his second term as global investors head for the ext. 

Unemployment at a 45-year high has hurt demand for everything from soaps to 7-cent cookies, while car sales have slumped the most on record and new investments have been sluggish as a lingering shadow banking crisis curbs lending. That’s caused growth to decelerate for five straight quarters to 5% in the three months to June - the weakest since March 2013 - and well below the 8% plus annual expansion needed to achieve the goal.

达斯或许能够缓解融资紧张，但需要实施“大爆炸式”的改革来释放推动经济朝着莫迪目标前进所需的生产力增长。尽管他今年带着更大的使命重返政坛，激起了投资者对更为激进的改革的预期，但在他第二个任期开始的100天里，全球投资者都在撤退，这种希望正在消退。

失业率升至45年高点，影响了从肥皂到饼干等各种商品的需求，而汽车销量降幅创历史新高，由于挥之不去的影子银行危机抑制了放贷，新增投资也一直低迷。这导致印度经济增长在截至6月份的三个月中连续五个季度放缓至5%，为2013年3月以来的最低水平，远低于实现这一目标所需的8%以上的年增长率。

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“We expect the first-term reforms of the Modi government, including a clean-up of the banking sector, a new bankruptcy law, and a new indirect tax structure, to mark a transition to a faster-growth trajectory. These should lift potential growth to 8% from around 7.4% now. At the same time, we expect a recovery in actual growth, picking up from an estimated 6.2% in fiscal 2020 to 8.5% in fiscal 2025.” -- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

“For the economy to reach $5 trillion, it will take the types of reform that were long promised: massive reductions in regulations, streamlining of labor laws, privatization of state entities, investments in infrastructure,” said Vivek Wadhwa, a distinguished fellow and professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering at Silicon Valley. “Yet little happened,” he said.

彭博社的经济学家怎么说

“我们期待莫迪政府第一个任期内的改革，包括清理银行业、新破产法和新的间接税结构，能向着更快增长轨道的转变。这将使潜在增长率从目前的7.4%左右提高到8%。与此同时，我们预计实际增长将出现复苏，从2020财年6.2%的预计增速升至2025财年8.5%。——印度经济学家阿布舍克•古普塔

“要实现经济5万亿美元的目标，需要几种长期改革手段的组合：大规模减少法规、精简劳动法、国有企业私有化、投资基础设施。”Vivek Wadhwa，杰出的研究员和硅谷卡内基梅隆大学的工程学院教授说道，“但几乎什么也没发生。”

That laundry list needs to be implemented quickly as India, according to most economists, faces a structural as well as a cyclical slowdown. New measures announced so far by the government to bolster growth are seen falling short of addressing the pain points.

Underpng the target of $5 trillion is the government’s forecast of 8% average GDP growth, according to Shilan Shah, senior India economist with Capital Economics in Singapore. “That is setting a very high bar,” he said.

大多数经济学家认为，随着印度面临结构性放缓和周期性放缓。政府迄今宣布的提振经济增长的新举措，料将无法解决这些痛点。

新加坡凯投宏观资深印度经济学家希兰•沙阿说，支撑5万亿美元目标的是政府对印度平均GDP增长8%的预测。“这设定了一个很高的标准，”他说。

Oil Prices

Volatile oil prices following the attack on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia are an added risk to the economy that imports 80% of its crude oil needs, while slowing global growth spawned by trade tensions have subdued demand for its exports.

“There is clearly a demand recession going on right now,” said Girija Pande, chairman of Singapore-based Apex Avalon Consulting Pte. and a former CEO of Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. “One has to boost aggregate demand and one of the ways of doing that is by lowering rates.”

Another way is by attracting large dollops of foreign investments into fresh projects and be part of trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. While India has jumped in the ease of doing business rankings, it has not been enough to attract significant foreign capital to become part of global supply chains despite some initial hopes that businesses might relocate to shield themselves from the ongoing U.S.- trade war.

While Modi has seen through far-reaching reforms -- giving RBI an inflation targeting mandate, introducing a nationwide consumption tax and passing an insolvency law -- in his first term, he’s fallen short of overhauling the banking system. Besides, large parts of the economy are yet to recover from his decision to ban high-value bills in 2016.

石油价格

沙特阿拉伯一处石油设施遭到袭击后，油价剧烈波动，给该国经济带来了额外的风险。沙特80%的原油需求依赖进口，而贸易紧张引发的全球经济增长放缓抑制了对其出口的需求。

"目前需求明显在衰退，"新加坡Apex Avalon Consulting Pte.董事长兼Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.前执行长Girija Pande称，"必须提振总需求，其中一种方法就是降息。"

另一种方式是吸引大量外国投资进入新的项目，并成为《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》等贸易集团的成员。虽然印度的营商环境排名大幅提升，但还不足以吸引大量外国资本，尽管一些人最初曾希望企业可能会搬迁，以避开正在进行的竞争中美贸易战。

尽管莫迪已经完成了影响深远的改革——赋予印度央行通胀目标授权，在全国范围内引入消费税，并通过了破产法——但在他的第一个任期内，他未能彻底改革银行体系。此外，印度经济的很大一部分尚未从他在2016年废钞令的决定中复苏。

印度经济时代读者评论：

译文来源：三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/48463.html     译者：Joyceliu

外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com

Shashi Shankar

Do not go by maths, math did not helped Einstein discover gravity. We are already close to 3 billion economy, in 2025, we will multiply the number by 1.7 and there you go 5 billion economy.

数学不可靠，数学并没有帮助爱因斯坦发现地心引力。我们已经接近30亿经济体量，到2025年，我们把这个数字乘以1.7，那就是50亿经济体量了。

Shitil Tilve

modis dream staying as a dream only

莫迪的梦想还只是一个梦想

Raaj

5 trillion is possible only with Indira type of governance in emergency

5万亿也许只有在紧急情况下，在英迪拉式的统治时期才有可能实现

Natarajan D

Right from the annoy, this figure is at risk. Even current year tax collection, gdp etc are at risk

这个数字是有风险的。就连本年度的税收、GDP目标等也都面临着风险。

KRISHAN KANT Aneja

Before Assembly elections you will see India shining ,GDP 8% ,employment growth 45% No poor left in the country & what not!! Dreams & dreams.

在议会选举之前，你会看到印度闪耀着光芒，GDP增长8%，就业增长45%，不再有穷人。梦想！梦想！

Radheyshyam Khandelwal

10 trillion by 2030,20 by 2040 n 100 by 2100

2030年达到10万亿，2040年达到20万亿，2100年达到100万亿。

Melman Const

There is no harm in having a dream. Only to worry is how the public money is spending, how NPAs are growing, who is not paying back. Insolvency of companies is not a solution since their loan have to be paid by public by taxes on petrol or as GST or other cess.

有梦想没有害处。唯一需要担心的是公共资金的支出情况，国家行动纲领的增长情况，以及谁没有偿还债务。企业资不抵债并不是一个解决方案，因为它们的贷款必须由公众通过汽油税、消费税或其它cess来支付。

Swabhanu Mysore Venkataramaiah

2 YEARS BEFORE THE NEXT L.S. ELECTIONS WE WILL GROW BY 40-50% TO MAKE UP ! DREAMS & CASTLES IN THE AIR !

在下一次大选前两年，我们将以40-50%的增长来弥补这一差距！梦想与空中楼阁！

Bihari Krishna Shrestha

Since most of the major reform agenda remain not only undone but also not even contemplated, all indications are that the worse is yet to come. But the more dangerous aspect of the Modi government''s functioning at present is that the major leaders in the government including the PM himself are saying and doing things (like the Kashmir''s 370 stuff and Assam''s NRC) that have tremendous destabilizing possible fallout for the entire nation. All these seem to suggest that they have not a worry in the world about the worsening of the country''s economy that now seems to struggle at the brink of disaster. Tine for India to fasten its belt.

由于大多数主要的改革议程不仅没有完成，而且甚至还未开始，所有迹象都表明，更糟的情况还没有到来。但是，莫迪政府目前运作中更危险的一面是，包括总理本人在内的政府的主要领导人正在说和正在做的事情(比如克什米尔的370件事情和阿萨姆邦的核管理委员会)可能会给整个国家带来巨大的不稳定后果。所有这些似乎都表明，他们并不担心国家经济的恶化，而该国目前似乎正挣扎在灾难的边缘。印度最好系紧腰带。

Anurag Kumar

we have voted modi for a change that thats what he is doing

正是我们投票给莫迪，支持他正在做的改变。

Raaj

reforms is being opposed by vested interest with vehemence within party , why Maharashtra had to withdraw APMC action ??/

改革受到党内既得利益者的强烈反对，为什么马哈拉施特拉邦不得不撤回APMC的行动。

A.R. N.

Dr. Subramanyanswamy put it rightly that the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister do not know economics. As so many false promises were by Modi this 5 trillion economy promise is also a false one. To achieve this more than 9% GDP growth is required. Wherefrom the money to spend by people and the Govt come? Due to the Economy slowdown the GDP came down to 5% and RBI laments that they did not expect it is coming. Workers lost their jobs, industries closed and huge slump in sales and everybody is fearing of their future. This is the singular achievement of Modi

Subramanyanswamy博士说得对，总理和财政部长不懂经济学。正如莫迪做出的许多错误承诺一样，这个5万亿美元的经济承诺也是错误的。要实现这一目标，需要超过9%的GDP增长速度。人民和政府要花的钱从哪里来？由于经济放缓，印度国内生产总值降至5%，印度储备银行遗憾地表示，他们没有预料到会出现这种情况。工人们失去了工作，销售大幅下滑，每个人都在担心自己的未来。这是莫迪唯一的成就。

Yudhvir Talwar

Indian investors have lost close to Rs 20 lakh crore since presentation of budget. At this rate we all to witness bad & ugly days ahead.

自从公布预算以来，印度投资者已经损失了近200亿卢比。照这样下去，未来的生活将十分艰难困苦。