Will India's real estate market crash?

印度房地产市场会崩盘吗?

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Prateek Gupta, Interested in businesses, investments and economics.

Most probably it will (I am talking about Delhi-NCR). Its on the verge of crashing. Indian real estate market is a huge bubble where people don't know actual worth of their property. Prices are stagnant from last 2-3 years and soon they will start to collapse.

The problem with Indian real estate is that it is not data oriented. If your neighbour sells a flat for 40 lakhs then the price of your flat is also 40 lakhs. If he sells for 30 lakhs then it is 30 lakhs. So once sellers realize that their are not many buyers someone somewhere will have to buckle down and he/she will sell the property below "market rate" and that is when the prices will start falling down in that neighbourhood. If you look in Delhi, this has started to happen and this is creating domino effect in whole Delhi-NCR.

Also, our government is bringing in lot of regulation to curb black money like increasing circle rates and again this reduces the capacity of buyers since most transaction happen here involve more that 60% black money.

So certainly there is a very good chance that the real estate market of Delhi-NCR may collapse very soon.

最有可能的是(我说的是德里)。它已在崩溃的边缘。印度房地产市场是一个巨大的泡沫，人们不知道自己房产的实际价值。过去2-3年房产价格停滞不前，很快就会开始暴跌。

印度房地产的问题在于它不是以数据为导向的。如果你的邻居以400万卖掉一套公寓，那么你公寓的价格也是400万。如果他卖了300万，你的也是300万。因此，一旦卖家意识到买家并不多，就会有人以低于“市场价”的价格出售房产，那么该地区的房价就会开始下跌。你看看德里，这种情况已经开始发生了，这在整个德里地区产生了多米诺骨牌效应。

此外，我们的政府正在实施大量的法规来控制黑钱，比如提高周转率，这再次降低了买家的能力，因为这里的大多数交易都涉及超过60%的黑钱。

因此，德里地区的房地产市场很有可能很快就会崩溃。

Manish M. Nagori, Love playing Monopoly, IRL

Won't see a crash-like situation. It will be a little less dramatic than some industry 'experts' make it sound. We won't see a 50% crash in value unlike a recent report suggests. We're seeing a time-correction right now, which will stay for a year or more.

Reason why the market won't crash:

不会出现硬着陆的情况。也不会像某些行业“专家”所说的那么戏剧性。我们不会看到房价像最近一份报道所称的，房价将下跌50%。我们现在看到的是时间调整，这种调整将持续一年或更长时间。

市场不会崩盘的原因：

1. Investors: Unlike equities,etc. An investor is investing in something material which can be used in case the asset isn't performing as per his expectation. The holding capacity is generally there. Hardly anyone sells for a loss, which means that those who have recently bought property won't sell for less, which means that you won't see a crash from investors since big monies are involved. 
2. Demand-Supply Gap: This is talked about the most these days, nobody has the data of 'fence-sitters', this gap slowly but steadily can get filled if the fence sitters are able to develop confidence in real estate again. The rumours of crash are kee end-users away. Those who can't wait longer are taking the plunge.. the numbers might be less but are definitely exstent. 
3. Economy: A lot of the economy depends on real-estate sector. If the fall happens, people will stop paying EMIs and default can cause the banks to turn their assets (home loans) to losses in terms of bad loans. Also, construction workers, brokers, architects, cement industry, etc etc will lose out on revenue and in turn make the economy which is dependent on real estate topple. 

If there is a crash, everyone who has a house will notionally become poorer and that won't be good for the overall sentiment of the public. Yes, the oversupplied markets will see a correction, but not the entire market altogether. Real estate is a more complex product than other financial products, requires a lot of time investment and in general nobody wants it to crash unless they're at the buyer's side ;) 

1. 投资者：不像股票等资产。投资者投资的是实物，这些东西在资产表现不如预期时有实用性。一般来说，几乎没有人亏本出售，这意味着那些最近买了房产的人不会亏本出售，这意味着你不会看到投资者崩盘甩卖，因为涉及大笔资金。
2. 供求缺口：这是最近谈论最多的话题，没有人有“中立派”数据，如果中立派能够重新树立对房地产的信心，这个缺口可以缓慢但稳定地得到填补。崩溃的谣言让终端用户敬而远之。那些等不及的人正在尝试。
3. 经济：经济很大程度上依赖于房地产行业。如果房价下跌，违约可能导致银行将其资产(住房贷款)转化为坏账损失。此外，建筑工人、经纪人、建筑师、水泥行业等将失去收入，反过来使依赖房地产的经济崩溃。

如果发生金融危机，每个有房子的人理论上都会变得更穷，这对公众的整体情绪是不利的。是的，供应过剩的市场将出现调整，但不是整个市场。房地产是一种比其他金融产品更复杂的产品，需要大量的时间投资，一般来说，没有人希望它崩溃，除非他们站在买家一边。

Siva Rajesh, studied at Indian Institute of Management Bangalore

Lets compare the real estate prices in the rest of world vs India. 

Apartment prices in India are at level with the ones in countries like Singapore where the land is limited and congested. Now when we discount for the fact that Singapore and Japan are much advanced in terms of GDP per Captia, we will understand what the actual value of housing is and how much overrated owning a house in India is. One of the main reasons why the prices of apartments have skyrocketed in the recent years is purely because of ‘Animal Spirits’ - because everyone else thinks that housing is valuable. 

This is how much we as Indians overpriced housing. Rental yields are lower than many other densely populated East-Asian countries. Add to this the fact, there is severe scarcity of water even cities like Bangalore and Hyderabad - the breeding grounds for water mafia. On the brighter side, for millennials, in the long run, it is much better to rent a house than to own one in cities like Bangalore.

我们来比较一下世界其他地区和印度的房地产价格。

印度的公寓价格与新加坡等国的水平相当，但新加坡的土地有限且拥挤。现在，当我们考虑到新加坡和日本在人均国内生产总值方面领先很多的事实时，我们就会明白住房的实际价值是多少，在印度拥有一所房子被高估了多少。近年来，公寓价格飞涨的一个主要原因纯粹是“动物本能”—所有人都认为住房是有价值的。

这就是我们印度人对住房定价过高的原因。租金收益率低于许多其他人口稠密的东亚国家。此外，就连班加罗尔和海得拉巴这样的城市也严重缺水，而这些城市正是“水黑手党”的温床。好的一面是，从长远来看，对千禧一代来说，在班加罗尔这样的城市租一套房子要比拥有一套好得多。

Rahul Khachane, Assistant Professor (2018-present)

Indians firmly believe, irrespective of how other asset classes are performing, Indian Real Estate is safest and Risk Free asset class.

If we look at the prices over the years, there are no steep corrections in real estate sector. Because there are always buyers at slight corrected levels.

The cause of India's stagnant and Rigid real estate sector is India's age old, rigid (and conditionally flexble) land laws dating back to 19th Century.

The cause is Land prices, and fraudulent activities in State Revenue Departments, Land Mafias, Law Makers. It is no surprise that It involves black money.

Recently, GST, RERA and Demonatization had a impact on real estate sector. Although, it is growing at healthy pace. That doesn't mean everything is right with it.

Auto sales started falling, consumer goods companies results posting slower growth.

Looking at the overall scenario, it is clear that real estate sector is going to face some stress. Now the extent and timing can not be decided.

印度人坚信，不管其他资产类别表现如何，房地产是最安全、无风险的资产类别。

如果我们看看过去几年的价格，房地产行业没有出现大幅调整。

印度房地产行业停滞不前的原因在于印度陈旧、僵化的土地法，这些土地法可以追溯到19世纪。

其原因是土地价格，以及国家税务部门、土地黑手党、立法者的欺诈活动。它涉及黑钱也就不足为奇了。

近年来，商品及服务税、零售税和废钞令都对房地产业产生了影响。尽管如此，它正以健康的速度增长。这并不意味着一切都是对的。

汽车销售开始下滑，消费品公司业绩增长放缓。

从整体情况看，房地产行业显然将面临一些压力。现在还不能确定范围和时间。

Arun Goyal

Indian real estate market is all set for a huge collapse, Clear reason, in the aftermath of 2008 great recession, Indian government unleashed a huge stimulus, Nominal GDP growth went to 22-25% with interest rates at 7-8% resulting in excess liquidity in market chasing the most speculative asset class - "REAL ESTATE". Over the past few years, RBI has taken the rates up to control inflation, Nominal GDP has fallen to 10% and interest rates at 11%. There is an absolute squeeze on liquidity and getting intensified. I feel you may see a huge crash sooner than later. Atleast 40%. Rental yields should reach between 4-5%, only possible if prices crash by 40-50%. Wait and watch the great Indian real estate roller coaster is about to begin.

印度房地产市场即将面临大崩盘，明确原因，2008年后大衰退，印度政府释放出巨大的刺激，名义GDP增长率达到22 - 25%，利率维持在7 - 8%，导致资金流动性过剩，追逐最投机资产类别—“房地产”。在过去的几年里，印度央行提高了利率以控制通货膨胀，名义GDP下降到10%，利率为11%。流动性绝对吃紧，而且愈演愈烈。我觉得你迟早会看到房价暴跌。至少40%。租金收益率应该达到4-5%之间，但只有房价下跌40-50%才有可能。等着瞧吧，印度房地产大起大落的过山车就要开始了。

DC Fawcett, former REAL ESTATE at Real Estate Investing

How to predict the real estate crash

The recession in 2008 has caused havoc in the economy which has affected the salary hikes of the employees, leading the organization to lay off the employees who are done with their projects and are not getting new projects. Recession can be tracked and its timings can be predicted with the stunning accuracy degree. Here are the ways to predict real estate crash.

如何预测房地产崩盘

2008年的经济衰退对经济造成了严重的破坏，影响了打工者的工资增长，导致公司解雇已完成工作的员工。衰退可以被跟踪，它的时间可以预测到惊人的准确性程度。以下是预测房地产崩盘的几种方法。

译文来源：三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/48673.html 译者：Joyceliu

1.Recovery – Recession causes high unemployment, reduced consumption and investment in buildings, factories, and machines. Even the land rate decreases during these times. The recession also leads to delinquencies when it comes to paying off your debts when you previously avail for the long-term loans.

2.Expansion – Transition from recovery to expansion occurs when the individuals and the companies rent their buildings they have purchased. The vacancies of the buildings are less when the tenants occupy the buildings for a long time which leads the home or the landowners increase the rent. As most of the real estate expenses are fixed, the revenue increases as and when there is an increase in the currency. When profits increase, there is a score for new development and re-development or vacant land.

1.经济复苏—经济衰退导致高失业率，减少建筑、工厂和机器的消费和投资。甚至土地价格在这段时间也下降了。当你需要偿还之前的长期贷款时，经济衰退也会导致还款拖欠。

2.扩张—当个人和公司租用他们购买的建筑时，从恢复到扩张的转变就发生了。当租客长期占用房屋时，房屋的空置率会降低，导致房屋或土地所有者增加租金。由于大部分房地产费用是固定的，收入随着货币的增加而增加。当利润增加时，就会促进新开发或闲置土地的再开发。

3.Hyper supply – Long term average depends on the current occupancy rate which leads to upward pressure on rents. Delineation point between expansion and market hyper supply is the first indication that we get in the real estate cycle. Recession as we know also plays a major role in real estate. In this case, the occupancy falls below the long-term average. New construction ceases but hyper supply projects continue to be delivered. Increase in interest rates is the third indication. When the prices increase throughout the broader economy with the hyper supply expansion, it sooner or later forces the Federal Reserve to fight the inflation rates. The positive side of it is the developers can resume with their hyper supply. The negative side of it is the delay in the projects.

3.供应过剩—长期平均水平取决于目前的入住率，导致租金上涨的压力。扩张和市场供应过剩之间的界限是我们进入房地产周期的第一个迹象。众所周知，经济衰退在房地产市场也扮演着重要的角色。在这种情况下，入住率低于长期平均水平。新的建设停止了，但超供应项目将继续交付。第三个迹象是利率上调。当整个经济的价格随着供给的过度扩张而上涨时，迟早会迫使央行对抗通货膨胀率。积极的一面是，开发商可以恢复他们的超量供应。消极的一面是项目将延迟交付。

Apekshit Dhoke, Learner & Explorer for Life

No it won't crash in foreseeable future..

1.Indian Real Estate has politicians as major investors

2.Politicians won't allow erosion of their investments

3.If value of a house that you own falls below the price you pay for it (EMI) then, you stop paying the price (default or sell) which leads to losses for banks (immediate losses or future interest losses) which impacts financial markets (financial crisis) which leads to decreased market sentiments, economic unstability and socio-political turmoil (loss of jobs-loss of power)

4.They might reform it at snails pace i.e. prices will remain stable for 2-3 years or will have minimalistic growth to give a feeling it might crash. However it won't. They will create new townships and satellite cities to show infrastructure growth and attract middle class to fulfill home owning dream. Free housing for slum dwellers for votes.

不，在可预见的将来不会崩溃。

1.印度房地产的主要投资者是政界人士

2.政客们不会允许他们的投资遭受损失

3.如果房子的现值低于你的购入价，那你不会继续买单(违约或出售)导致银行遭受损失(直接损失或未来利益损失)，影响金融市场(金融危机)，导致市场情绪下降，经济不稳定性和社会政治动荡。

4.他们可能会以蜗牛般的速度改革，即物价将在2-3年内保持稳定，或者以极低的增长率上涨，让人感觉它可能会崩溃。但是它不会的。他们将创建新的乡镇和卫星城，展示基础设施的发展，吸引中产阶级实现拥有住房的梦想。为贫民窟居民提供免费住房以换取选票。

Sanjana Murya, Real Estate agency

Real estate in India is terribly expensive and is now selling properties at practically unaffordable prices for many now. Almost everyone has a strong view on India’s residential real estate market. As of now, there is a lot of confusion about the realty segment here and most of the people expect prices to crash. It is surprising to know that the market analysts and experts agree to disagree with this. They believe that the prices will keep falling but definitely they will never crash overnight to a panic-led collapse. Real estate is certainly going through a painful business down-cycle, but this will also end at some point of time. Don’t worry, the market won’t crash overnight.

印度的房地产是非常昂贵的，现在对许多人来说，房地产的价格几乎是难以承受的。几乎每个人都对印度的住宅房地产市场都有一肚子话要说。到目前为止，人们对房地产市场有很多困惑，大多数人预计房价会下跌。令人惊讶的是，市场分析家和专家都一致不同意这个观点。他们相信价格会继续下跌，但肯定不会在一夜之间崩盘，导致恐慌。房地产行业当然正在经历一个痛苦的商业衰退周期，但这也将在某个时间点结束。别担心，市场不会在一夜之间崩盘。

Pakshal Mehta, studied Business at Aditya Birla World Academy (2018)

It has already crashed.

Real estate used to be bought and sold mostly in cash . However, now nobody is buying real estate because nobody has that much cash of new money and nobody in their right minds will take old notes.

Moreover, it has been rumoured that Modi ji is going to “strike “ real estate next because a lot of people have hidden their black money through real estate . So , nobody dares buy real estate

And when demand for a good/service falls, its price also falls . And this is why real estate prices have crashed in India

Thank you

它已经崩盘了。

过去，房地产买卖大多以现金形式进行。然而，现在没有人买房，因为没有人有那么多的新钞，而且头脑正常的人也不接受旧钞。

此外，有传言称莫迪下一步将“打击”房地产，因为很多人通过房产来隐藏他们的黑钱。所以，没人敢买房产。

当一种商品/服务的需求下降时，价格也会随着下降。这就是印度房地产价格暴跌的原因。

谢谢你！

Rakesh Nair, Entrepreneur

Yes it will. The real estate price has been sky rocketing since last few years and it happens only because of easy availability of mortgage . People are buying multiple houses as investment and taking large amount of loans to do so.

是的，它会的。房地产价格在过去的几年里一直在飙升，这是因为很容易获得抵押贷款。人们购买多套房子作为投资，并为此获得大量贷款。

Akash Singh, former Writer at Freelancing

I will give a different take on real estate prices

In india most of the upper middle class and affluent class want to settle abroad. This has been taking place for years but in the last decade this trend has increased

This means future generation who could afford to pay higher prices for their house are now investing in education and settling abroad. I know hundreds of 20s and 30s people who have settled abroad. All of them are from metro cities. Over a longer term this will also keep this sector mellow.

我对房地产价格有不同的看法。

在印度，大多数中上阶层和富裕阶层都想在国外定居。这种情况已持续多年，但在过去十年中，这种趋势更加明显了。

这意味着，有能力支付更高房价的未来一代现在开始投资教育，并在海外定居。我认识几百个二三十岁的人，他们都在国外定居。他们都来自大城市。长期来看，这也将使该行业保持稳健。

Debasish Roy

Real Estate prices will fall 70 per cent in Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore and fall 45 per cent in Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Kolkata. Don't understand the Chennai market so well.

德里、孟买和班加罗尔的房地产价格将下跌70%，海得拉巴、艾哈迈达巴德和加尔各答的房地产价格将下跌45%。我不太了解金奈市场。

Ravi D, worked at PORTIQO - Rental & Property Management Services

Even though there has been a slowdown in the Indian real estate sector it is nowhere close to a crash. It is just a cycle where the prices have sky rocketed in the past few years and now there is a consolidation post- demonetization. The demand is bound to pick up especially in the affordable housing sector and in Tier-2 cities

尽管印度房地产行业有所放缓，但离崩盘还差得远。这只是一个周期，价格在过去几年里直线上升，而现在是废钞令后的稳定期。需求一定会回升，尤其是在经济适用房领域和二线城市。