GDP may grow at 4.2% in Q2 :SBI

印度第二季度GDP可能增长4.2%

The country's largest public sector bank, State Bank of India, has just released a report, that predicts only a 4.2 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter.

The bank attributes it to low automobile sales, deceleration in air traffic movements, flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure.

The growth forecast for FY20 has now come down to 5 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier, the report also said.

State Bank of India (SBINSE 0.71 %) joins other global agencies - the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation an Development (OCED), Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - in downgrading India's FY20 growth rates.

India's GDP was already at a 6-year low of 5 per cent in Q1.

"Our 33 high frequency leading indicators reveal an acceleration rate which was 65 per cent in Q1 FY19, but declined sharply to 27 per cent in Q2 FY20. Besides, Skymet also reported that the country as a whole received 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm of rainfall during the four-month-long southwest monsoon period, making it to the above normal category," SBI said.

印度最大的国有银行—印度国家银行刚刚发布了一份报告，预计第二季度国内生产总值增幅仅为4.2%。

该行将增幅的下降归因于汽车销售低迷、空中交通流量减速、核心行业增长趋平以及建筑和基础设施投资下降。

报告还表示，目前对2020财年的增长预测已从此前的6.1%降至5%。

印度国家银行加入了亚洲开发银行、世界银行、经合组织、印度储备银行和国际货币基金组织等全球机构的行列，下调了对印度2020财年的经济增长率的预测。

今年第一季度，印度国内生产总值已降至5%的6年来的低点。

“我们的33个高频领先指标显示，第一季度的加速率为65%，但在第二季度急剧下降至27%。此外，天空电视台还报道说，在长达四个月的西南季候风期间，整个国家的长期平均降雨量89厘米的110%，达到了正常水平以上。”

"Among meteorological divisions, Central India and Southern Peninsula received the maxmum rainfall of 129 per cent and 116 per cent of their LPA, respectively. Excess Monsoon rains and the floods caused by them had affected the Kharif crops in many states, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Punjab."

"While 40 to 50 per cent soyabean crop has been hit in Madhya Pradesh, which is the biggest producer of the oilseed, 30 to 40 per cent of the groundnut and up to 30 per cent of cotton crops have been affected in Gujarat."

"As these states are major agrarian states, so this could have a negative impact on the agricultural growth. Considering all these domestic parameters along with the global downturn, we now foresee a GDP growth at 5 per cent in the current fiscal," the report said.

"We expect Q2 GDP growth at 4.2 per cent. Our acceleration rate for 33 leading indicators at 85 per cent in October 2018 is down to just 17 per cent in September 2019, with such decline gaining traction from March 2019."

“印度中部和南部半岛的最高降雨量分别为长期平均降雨量的129%和116%。过多的季风雨和由此引发的洪水影响了许多邦的庄稼收成，包括中央邦、马哈拉施特拉邦、古吉拉特邦、卡纳塔克邦和旁遮普。”

“印度中央邦40%至50%的大豆作物受灾，同时古吉拉特邦30%至40%的花生和至多30%的棉花作物受到影响。中央邦是印度最大的油籽产地。”

由于这些邦都是农业大省，所以这可能会对农业增长产生负面影响。考虑到这些国内参数以及全球经济低迷，我们现在预计当前财政年度的国内生产总值增长率将在5%左右。

“我们预计第二季度国内生产总值将增长4.2%。2018年10月，我们对33个领先指标的85%的加速率，将在2019年9月降至仅17%，而从2019年3月开始一直维持这一下降趋势。”

"Even IIP growth number for September 2019 was 4.3 per cent, which is quite alarming. We are revising our GDP forecast for FY20 to 5 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier," the SBI Ecowarp said.

"We expect growth rate to pick up pace in FY21 to 6.2 per cent. We also expect revisions to the GDP data as in the past, but that is likely in February 2020 as is the custom. In FY17, Q1 GDP figure was revised upwards from 7.1 per cent in every revision and finally settled at 9.2 per cent", the bank said.

"We, however, believe this growth rate in FY20 should be looked through the prism of synchronised global slowdown (countries have witnessed 22-716 basis point decline between June 2018 and June 2019, and India cannot be isolated)."

"India is also significantly lower in Economic Uncertainty Index when compared globally. We also believe that Moody's change in outlook from stable to negative will not have any significant impact as rating actions are always a laggard indicator and the markets this time have categorically given a thumbs down to such indicators," it said.

“就连2019年9月的国际知识产权增长数字也是4.3%，这相当令人担忧。我们将把2020财年的GDP预测从此前的6.1%下调至5%。”

“我们预计，在2021财年，印度经济增速将加快至6.2%。我们还预计，GDP数据将像过去那样进行修正，但按照惯例，可能在2020年2月进行修正。”在17财年，第一季度国内生产总值数据从每一次修订的7.1%向上修正，最终稳定在9.2%。

“然而，我们认为，应该透过全球同步放缓的棱镜来看待2020财年的这一增长率(在2018年6月至2019年6月期间，一些国家出现了22-716个基点的下降，印度无法独善其身)。”

“与全球相比，印度的经济不确定性指数也低得多。我们还认为，穆迪的评级展望从稳定变为负面不会产生任何重大影响，因为评级行动总是一个滞后的指标，而市场这次对这些指标表示明确否定。”

以下是《印度时报》网站读者评论：

 译文来源：三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/48789.html      译者：Joyceliu

外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com

ESMAIL MEMON

Government is monitoring in deatail, have patience. In my opinion reduction in lending rates should be aggressive and transmission to consumer/industries should also be fastest. As we all aware that in Japan and many other countries in the world there is zero INTEREST rates or negative rates. Salary of government employees should be reduced as we pay them ten times more than average per capita income of average India. Loss making concerned staff should not be given bonouses, perks only minimum wages till the time they become profitable or shut down or privatise it. SAVE ELECTRICITY: SWITCH OFF AIR CONDITIONS, LIGHTS AND FANS WHEN LEAVING THE OFFICE/ROOMS.{Government staff and Private} STOP WASTAGES REDUCE COST wastages

政府在监视着呢，耐心点。在我看来，应该果断降低贷款利率，这样能最快地传导只消费者/行业。我们都知道，在日本和世界上许多其他国家存在零利率或负利率。政府雇员的工资应该降低，因为我们支付给他们的工资是印度普通人均收入的十倍。亏损企业的员工在盈利、倒闭或私有化之前，应该只领取最低工资，不发放奖金。节约用电；离开办公室/房间时，关掉空调、电灯和电扇。(政府工作人员和私人)停止浪费，减少成本浪费。

AG

So much achhe din! Are you dumb bhakts enjoying achhe din? Jumlanomics has slashed the growth rate to 4.2%.

整天都在吵吵好日子！你们是享受好日子的傻子吗？经济学家已将增长率削减至4.2%了。

Sanujit Roy

It would be a blunder

这将是一个大错。

Mickky

3-4% or 7-8%, dose not matter, middle class people will suffer, those who are stacking in foreign nation will keep stacking,so no point of discussion.

3-4%或7-8%，都不重要，中产阶级的人会遭殃，那些在国外敛财的人会继续敛财，所以没必要讨论。

Indian

sbi is delinnking itself from govt. normally they are puppets of govt.

印度国家银行正在脱离政府，通常他们是政府的傀儡。

Praker

global recession is unavoidable.. it will affect real estate in India badly.. 30 years of realestate bull run will end with a huge crash..

全球经济衰退是不可避免的…这将严重影响印度的房地产。30年的房地产牛市将以巨大的崩盘告终。

Aishika Pal

how authentic the data is

多么真实的数据啊。

Venkat Iyer

This is estimate based on recent collapse in manufacturing and floods damaging crops and poor sales of auto, consumer goods etc.

这是基于最近制造业的崩溃和洪水对农作物的破坏，以及汽车、消费品等的糟糕销售表现。

Sameer Dada

By charging false penalties on the poor account holders right?

通过对不良账户持有人收取造假罚款，对吗?

May

Vote BJP for development and reforms

投票支持人民党发展和改革。

Feku Maharaj

GDP base year will be changed now and then we will only see 100% growth.

GDP基准年会不时改变，我们只会看到100%的增长。

Jatin Jain

Stock Market now trending in Crash Mode from tomorrow...

从明天开始，股市将呈现暴跌趋势。

Newanupam Biswas

all will happen but the market will still go higher...cause federal reserve started print ING money again....don''t worryyeah GDP will lowconsumer consumption will go lower....real estate will burst....food inflation will go higher day by dayinterest rates will go lower so what...Modi mahhan..I will still vote for him next time...he has bought down corruption...which was a big problem in india

一切都会发生，但市场仍将走高……因为美联储又开始印钞票了…别担心，GDP会下降，消费会下降……房地产将会崩溃……食品通胀会一天比一天高，利率会降低，那又怎样…莫迪. .下次我还是会投他的票…他打击了腐败分子，这是印度的大问题。

Padamnoor Pradeep

As long as jobs grow, it''s OK.

只要就业机会增加，就没问题。

Realdeshbhakt

Modiji and shahji,if you are true deshbhakts,please resign and retire.You have done immense damage to economy of this nation and spent all our tax money on jumlas.The nation does not require your leadership.Please go back to gujarat or some foreign nation and stay there.DOn''t come back

莫迪和沙赫，如果你们没本事，请辞职或退休吧。你们对这个国家的经济造成了巨大的损害，把我们所有的税款都花在久姆拉了。这个国家不需要你们的领导。请回到古吉拉特邦或其他国家吧，呆在那里，别回国了。

Jay Boro

and that fraud is dreaming about 5T

可那个骗子还梦想着5T呢。

Hemant Pisat

Now the Indian agencies are also downgrading the growth forecasts means it should be true. Bhakts professing normalcy are definitely stymied. Well, time is ripe for real action by government if they choose to do right things than rhetorical denials.

如今，印度评级机构也下调了增长预测，这意味着这件事应该是真的。自称这是正常情况的巴克特肯定会受到阻挠。看好吧，如果政府选择做正确的事情，而不是矢口否认，那么采取实际行动的时机已经成熟。

Bikash Gupta

Overall Growth Rate especially Industrial Growth Rate is highly dismal . When GOI and RBI are cutting down Bank Interest ( Repo ) Rate almost everyday . But Industrialists are not responding at all . Highly affected population is the Retired Persons , who are solely dependent upon the income from Bank Interest Rate .

总体增长率，特别是工业增长率非常低。印度政府和印度储备银行几乎每天都在降低银行回购利率。但实业家根本没有回应。受影响最大的是退休人员，他们完全依赖银行利率的收入。

Bhakth

Actual figure is 3.1 then after some pressure from the ministry they changed to 4.2.

实际数字只有3.1，政府施压，才又调整成了4.2。

Santosh Iyer

modi hai toh mumkin hai, somebody please tell him target is upwards & not downwards.

莫迪，请告诉他目标是向上涨，不是向下降。

Virendra Shukla

Non performing goverment .that is what happens when your focus is misplaced -crucial Management lessons learnt over the years but competency is never a realm of politicians

不作为的政府，关注点错了，就会发生这种情况——多年来，你学到了至关重要的管理经验，

但能力从来不是政治家的事。

Rewarding India

please give your real NPA numbers

请提供您的真实的NPA号码

Abhishek Kumar

if SBI says this then definately it will be 3%. Pathetic......

如果印度国家银行这么说，那么它肯定只有3%了。太可怜了……

George

We have to sincerely accept that we failed to bring reforms and changes in our country, failed to encourage manufacturing sector by giving world class infrastructure and even failed in our good policies of governance including speedy trails and judgements.Unless we wake up and make serious efforts to counter the slow down and job losses way ahead will be tough to our economy and going ahead will also be difficult due to no gain full employment .We truly need to invite world class manufacturing activities with our good governances off course we need a young qualified administrators in our government as early as possible.

我们必须真诚地接受这样一个事实：我们未能给我们的国家带来改革和变化，未能通过提供世界一流的基础设施来拉动制造业，甚至也未能实施良好的治理政策，包括快速的跟踪和判断。除非我们醒悟过来，认真努力应对未来的经济放缓，未来的失业将让我们的经济十分困难，我们需要邀请世界级的制造业企业，还需要好额治理，我们的政府需要尽快补充年轻有能力的管理者。

Rohit Kumar

But quality lacks, no good governance can help if every individual work quality is poor. Why anyone would manufacture anything if quality of product is going to be poor.

但是我们缺乏工作质量，如果每个人的工作质量都很差，那么好的治理也无法弥补。如果产品质量越来越差，为什么还有人愿意生产呢？

Aishvaraya Gupta

Indian GDP will keep falling for next 2 yrs.. it will turn negative next year... even 4 or 5% are inflated figures we are growing less than 1% currently... Jumla hai to sirf barbadi hai..

未来2年，印度GDP将持续下降。明年将变成负数…就连4%或5%也都是夸大的数字，我们目前的增长还不到1%…

Sadasivakrishnarao Kasturi

banking sector should reduce NPA and increasing money spending for better utilisation

银行部门应该减少NPA，增加货币支出，更好地利用货币。

Sudip Shah

Is the SBI preparing us for the worst on behalf of the Government, so that as and when the Q2 results are actually declared,it does not come to us as a shock

作为政府的代表，印度国家银行是不是在给我们打预防针，这样等第二季度的GDP公布时，我们才不会太过震惊

Fact Check For You

No State bank of India is Anti Indian company. Supreme leader is always correct. Now we’ll export pakora to foreign countries and bring back GDP to high tens. If not, we’ll reduce the gdp of previous govt to negative. Btw, supreme leaders govt will always be in positive.

没有哪家印度国家银行是反对印度的。最高领袖说的总是正确的。现在我们要向外国出口帕克拉，并将GDP带回高位。不然的话，我们会把上届政府的GDP降为负数。顺便说一句，最高领导人政府总是对的。

Anand Deshpande

Wake up India

印度，醒醒吧

Vikram

Even this is optimistic. It will be still less. Look at RBI still living in a dream and giving a rosy picture of 6.1%. When we have a govt that only wants to make a hero of Modi by doing nothing and is actually zero in all fronts of governance what else should we expect. Why did people re-elect this man even after knowing that he is big gas bag and his ''work'' of 5 years was so much visible to all?

即便如此，也都还是偏乐观的。还会继续下降的。看看仍然活在白日梦中的印度储备银行，还给出了6.1%的乐观数据。当我们的政府只想让莫迪成为英雄，无所作为，在所有领域都是一篇空白，我们还能期待什么？为什么人们在知道他是一个大毒气包，见识过他过去如此显而易见5年的“工作成就”后，还要继续推选他呢？