穆迪将印度2019年GDP增长预测下调至5.6%

Moody's cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019

NEW DELHI: Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019, saying government measures do not address the widespread weakness in consumption demand.

"We have revised down our growth forecast for India. We now forecast slower real GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2019, from 7.4 per cent in 2018," it said. "India's economic slowdown is lasting longer than previously expected."

Moody's had on October 10 slashed India's economic growth forecast for 2019-20 fiscal to 5.8 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.

Last week, it downgraded India's outlook to negative from stable.

In October, Moody's had attributed the deceleration to an investment-led slowdown that has broadened into consumption, driven by financial stress among rural households and weak job creation. ? In its Global Macro Outlook 2020-21, Moody's on Thursday said economic activity in India will pick up in 2020 and 2021 to 6.6 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively, but the pace to remain lower than in the recent past.

穆迪投资者服务公司周四将印度2019年经济增长预测下调至5.6%，称印度政府措施没有解决消费需求普遍疲软的问题。

“我们下调了对印度的GDP增长预测。我们现在预测，2019年实际GDP增速将从2018年的7.4%放缓至5.6%。印度经济放缓的持续时间比此前预期的要长。”

穆迪在10月10日将印度2019- 2020财年的经济增长预期从此前的6.2%下调至5.8%。

上周，该机构将印度的前景从稳定下调至负面。

去年10月，穆迪曾将经济减速归因于投资导致的经济放缓，而这一放缓已扩大到消费领域，其驱动因素是农村家庭的财务压力和就业增长乏力。穆迪周四在其全球宏观展望(2020-21)中表示，印度经济活动将在2020年和2021年分别提速至6.6%和6.7%，但增速仍将低于最近几年。

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"India's economic growth has decelerated since mid-2018, with real GDP growth slip from nearly 8 per cent to 5 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 and joblessness rising. Investment activity was muted well before that, but the economy was buoyed by strong consumption demand. What is troubling about the current slowdown is that consumption demand has cooled notably," it said.

The Modi government has undertaken a number of measures to arrest the growth slowdown. In September, it announced a cut in the corporate tax rate to 22 per cent from 30 per cent. It also lowered the tax rate for new manufacturing companies to 15 per cent to attract new foreign direct investments.

The tax rate reductions bring India in line with rates in other Asian countries.

The government's other initiatives include bank recapitalization, the mergers of 10 public sector banks into four, support for the auto sector, plans for infrastructure spending, as well as tax benefits for startups.

自2018年年中以来，印度经济增长一直在减速，实际GDP增速从近8%下滑至2019年第二季度的5%，失业率也在上升。在此之前，投资活动一直低迷，但强劲的消费需求提振了经济。目前经济放缓的问题在于消费需求明显降温。

莫迪政府已经采取了一系列措施来遏制经济增长放缓。今年9月，印度宣布将企业所得税率从30%下调至22%。为了吸引新的外国直接投资，印度还将新成立的制造企业所得税率下调至15%。

降低税率使印度与其他亚洲国家的税率保持一致。

政府的其它举措包括银行资本重组、将10家公共部门银行合并为4家、支持汽车业、基础设施支出计划，以及为初创企业提供税收优惠。

"However, none of these measures directly address the widespread weakness in consumption demand, which has been the chief driver of the economy," it said.

Moody's said the Reserve Bank of India has aggressively cut rates this year, and more rate cuts are likely.

"Benign domestic inflationary pressures, subdued oil prices and easing in other parts of the world will allow the central bank to continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy stance. However, the transmission to lending rates continues to be hindered by the credit squeeze caused by disruption in the non-bank financial sector," it said.

Moody's said while its baseline forecasts assume that economic momentum will pick up, there are risks to the downside.

"Slow employment growth is weighing on consumption. The interest rate cutting cycle is not adequately being transmitted, which is hampering investment as companies' borrowing costs remain elevated," it said.

“然而，这些措施都没有直接解决消费需求的普遍疲软，而消费需求一直是经济的主要驱动力，”报告称。

穆迪表示，印度央行今年已大幅降息，未来可能还会进一步降息。

“温和的国内通胀压力、低迷的油价以及世界其它地区的宽松政策，将使美联储能够继续奉行宽松的货币政策立场。然而，非银行金融领域的混乱所导致的信贷紧缩，继续阻碍贷款利率的传导。

穆迪表示，尽管其基线预测假定经济动能将增强，但仍存在下行风险。

“缓慢的就业增长正在拖累消费。降息周期没有得到充分传递，这在企业借贷成本居高不下的情况下阻碍了投资。

《印度经济时报》网站读者评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/48799.html 译者：Joyceliu

外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com

Abhishek Kumar

all who voted for BJP should open eyes. BJP is anti-india. they are just fullfilling RSS dreams not indians dream. indians are looking for job money career growth development but BJP is far from these issues

所有投票给人民党的人都应该睁大眼睛。印度人民币是反印度党派。他们只是在实现RSS梦想，而非印度人的梦想。印度人在寻找工作资金、职业发展，但人民党离这些问题还很远。

Abhineshwar Jena

it seems recession is going to stay till 2024 at least.

看来经济衰退至少要持续到2024年。

Sankara Narayanan

The Government should take note of Moody''s assessment of our economy in a practical manner instead of dubbing it as a product of Western economic concepts.And also, we know that that the automobile sector''s performance in sales are in the downswing , resulting large scale cutting of jobs. Agricultural sector too is not doing well while the manufacturing is steadily showing a downward trend. It is quite clear that cutting of rates also have not brought the desired results.The purchasing power of the common man is dwindling.

政府应该注意穆迪对我们经济评估的实际作用，而不是把它当作西方经济概念的产物。而且，我们知道，汽车行业的销售业绩正在下滑，导致大规模裁员。农业部门也表现不佳，而制造业稳步呈现下降趋势。很明显，降息也没有带来预期的效果。普通人的购买力正在下降。

Sabyasachi Nath

The biggest failure of a rating company lies in the fact that when the concerned market does not respond i.e., fall or rise immediately to its prediction.

评级公司最大的失败在于，相关市场不会对其预测立即作出反应，比如上升或下降。

Charu

BJP IT cell does not understand markets or its various bodies. Do not display your stupidity here. And yes, market has reacted. USDINR is above 72 and going to 75.

印度人民党IT部门不了解市场和各种机构。别在这里装傻。是的，市场已经做出了反应。美元兑印度卢比高于72，接近75。

Sabyasachi Nath

Aptly said Sir, respect your wisdom and amazed at the richness of your vocabulary. Thanks

这么说吧，我尊敬您的智慧，并对您丰富的词汇量感到惊讶。谢谢

Hassan

"Moody''s cuts India''s GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019" If at all India can reach this figure it would be a miracle given the fast growing cancerous tumors afflicting the Indian economy and the government incapable of undertaking the necessary surgical procedures to remove the tumors.

“穆迪将印度2019年的国内生产总值增长预测下调至5.6%。”如果印度能达到这个数字，那将是一个奇迹，因为印度经济正遭受快速增长的恶性肿瘤的折磨，而政府又无力承担必要的手术切除肿瘤。

Shriprakash Shukla

India should ignore all these predictions based on fictitios assumptions, delibrrately ignoring the affectve steps taken by the Govt and its regulators recently. India is on the correct path and doimg all that is feasible. Such arbitrary predictions lower tje morale of general public as well cause a great damage to ongoing efforts Enthusiasm and agreessive support of the ppeoplle is very nevessary.

印度应该无视所有这些基于虚构假设的预测，无视政府和监管机构最近采取的有效措施。印度正走在正确的道路上。这种武断的预测打击了公众的士气，也对正在进行的努力、热情和对人民的支持造成了巨大的损害，这是非常没有必要的。

Shri Mahesh

MAYBE THEY SHOULD SECOND GUESS CHINA AND AMERICA GROWTH.

也许他们应该重新审视和美国的增长。

Shadi Katyal

One must think calmly that Moody ratings or change of mind is due to data supplied by the Modi sarkar.Even the World bank has asked India to provide true figures and return to old world standard.

人们必须冷静地思考，穆迪的评级或调整是由于莫迪提供的数据。就连世界银行也要求印度提供真实数据，并回归旧世界标准。

Shri Mahesh

SEE, ITS A HUGE BIG GLOBAL RECESSION. DONT TRUST ANYONES NUMBERS. THERE IS A BIG GLOBAL 250 TRILLION DOLLAR DEBT BUBBLE. USA, EU, CHINA WILL BE FULLY AFFECTED TOO. TIME TO POP ALL BUBBLES IN INDIA SO WE ARE FULLY PREPARED AND READY TO RIDE THIS RECESSION OUT. INDIA WILL DO JUST FINE.

看来，这是一个巨大的全球性衰退。不要相信任何人的数字。全球有250万亿美元的债务泡沫。

美国、欧盟和也将受到全面影响。是时候戳破印度的所有泡沫了，这样我们就做好了充分的准备，可以安然度过这场衰退。印度会做得很好的。

Chandra Shekhar Sood

Too low inflation is as bad as high inflation.

过低的通货膨胀和高通货膨胀一样糟糕。

Realdeshbhakt

Bhakto ,you got your wishes.Now please let us live and thrive.Modiji-nirmalaji;you have caused immense damage to this nation and indians to satisfy your massive egos.Please resign and let some educated people run nation.We dont want illiterate dr wannabe running nation

Bhakto，你的愿望实现了。现在请让我们好好生活，欣欣向荣吧，你们为了满足你们的自大给这个国家和印度人造成了巨大的伤害。请你赶紧辞职，让受过教育的人来管理国家。我们不希望文盲独才者来统治国家。

Grewal Ajit

What is this second guessing story ? When the government itself - either refuses to acknowledge the poor growth rate and releases no worthwhile reliable information - make as many guesses as one needs

这第二个疑神疑鬼的故事是什么鬼？当政府本身——要么拒绝承认糟糕的增长率，要么发布不值得信赖的信息——根据需要进行尽可能多的猜测

Goswami Boy

Modi continuing with Nirmala.. Is he too bold? Or too scared to accept that it was a mistake?

莫迪继续使用Nirmala..他是不是太大胆了？还是因为太害怕而不敢承认这是个错误？

Aishvaraya Gupta

A mid segment business man is much better in knowing the country''s economic growth than Moody''s . Fitch, S&P. SBI , RBI or the govt.. GDP growth will be well below 5% for FY 20 .. mind it & note it

一个中等层次的商人比穆迪、惠誉、标准普尔、印度国家银行、印度央行或政府更了解这个国家的经济增长。2020财政年度的GDP增长将远低于5%。牢记于心吧。

Vikram

Truth is nobody knows how bad the mess is. The GDP growth is less than 3 percent today and slowly going down futher. This BJP govt has been a disaster for India''s economy and they headed by Modi hide data that doesn''t suit them. Massive damage has been done to economy by stupid govt led by an imbecile PM.

事实上，没人知道情况有多糟。今天的GDP增长率不到3%，而且还在缓慢下降。这个人民党政府是印度经济的灾难，他们以莫迪为首，隐瞒对他们不利的数据。愚蠢的总理领导的愚蠢政府对经济造成了巨大的破坏。

Disappointed Indian

Why what miracle would take it so high?

为什么，有什么奇迹能让它如此之高？

Kaushal Patel

boycott all ratings agency

抵制所有评级机构。

Ahon Babu

Can we blame Nehru for this....

我们能不能把这个归咎于尼赫鲁…

Subbu India

But our RBI is saying the opposite and happily reducing the interest rates

但是我们的印度储备银行说的正好相反，他们很乐意降低利率

Chandanwood

ups and downs are part of economy. don''t blame Modi of this and yes RaGa was inches away from few days in jail

起起落落是经济的一部分。别怪莫迪，没错，拉贾离坐牢只有几天了

Hari Krishna Johri

Sure Nehru is responsible for slow growth since 1947. On the other hand Feku has lifted millions out of poverty as per his latest claim at BRICS meeting.

当然，尼赫鲁要为1947年以来的缓慢增长负责。另一方面，根据莫迪在金砖国家会议上的最新声明，他让数百万人摆脱了贫困。

Aishvaraya Gupta

how much do u get to lick modi''s as. ?

你们还要怎么跪舔莫迪呢？

G P Shenoy

Anti-national?

反国家吗？

Sanjay Sawhney

For the PM the solutions, to India''s economic woes lies abroad and fool''s Indian people there by presenting hollow justifications that its only when the western world invests in India, the country shall grow and every 2nd day he moves abroad.

对总理来说，解决印度经济困境的办法在国外，用空洞的理由愚弄那里的印度人，只有当西方世界在印度投资时，这个国家才会发展，每隔两天他就会去往国外。

Yashodhan Muzumdar

on what basis it is 5.6% ? it will be less than 5%

这个5.6%增速是在什么基础上的？增速肯定低于5%。

Satish Chandran

Shame, shame. How long this govt. will carry on with manipulating figures......Oh only God can save this country from liers.....

耻辱，羞愧啊。这个政府还会继续操纵数据多久呢，只有神才能把这个国家从谎言中拯救出来……

Anand Deshpande

Wake up India

印度醒来吧。

Aishvaraya Gupta

they should cut it to 4.6% ... that''s where its gonna be