Is India's growth story over? Not quite. History shows there have been ups and downs in the past too

印度的增长故事结束了吗？还有戏！历史表明，过去也有过起起落落。

The Reserve Bank of India has downgraded its forecast for growth in the current fiscal year to 5%. But going by the gloom that pervades our analysts and commentators, one would be tempted to think that the forecast is missing a minus sign in front of it. At such a time, a look at the post-reform economic history of India provides a good reality check.

印度储备银行将本财年的经济增长预期下调至5%。但分析人士和评论人士普遍悲观，人们可能会认为，该预测数值前少写了一个负号。在这样的时刻，回顾印度改革后的经济史，可以很好地认清现实。

Since 1991, when systematic economic reforms were launched, the economy has oscillated between periods of high and low growth with the latter lasting two to three years. Each time it enters a low-growth phase, sceptics and pessimists of different shades come to the fore, predicting the end of the India growth story. Each time, the economy proves them wrong.

自1991年开始进行有系统的经济改革以来，印度经济在高增长率和低增长率之间摇摆不定，低增长率持续两至三年。每当印度进入低增长阶段，各种怀疑论者和悲观主义者就会站出来，预言印度增长故事的终结。每一次，经济走势都证明他们错了。

Thus, alongside reforms, India had managed to register an average annual growth rate of 6.4% from 1992-93 to 1999-2000. This was the first time the country grew at a rate exceeding 6% for a continuous eight-year period. Even the 1997-98 East Asian currency crisis could halt the economy during this period for only a year. It quickly bounced back to grow 7.5% on average in the following two years.

因此，在改革的同时，印度在1992-93年至1999-2000年间的年平均增长率为6.4%。这是印度第一次连续八年经济增长率超过6%。即便是1997年至1998年的东亚货币危机，也可能在这段时间内使经济停滞一年。此后两年，印度经济迅速反弹，平均增长率达到7.5%。

Though there was no discontinuity in policy in the new millennium, average annual growth plummeted to 4.1% during 2000-01 to 2002-03. An avalanche of gloomy pronouncements followed not just in the media but academia as well. While economist Bradford DeLong wrote sceptically of India’s reforms, Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian upped the ante by arguing that the post-1991 reforms had delivered nothing. The economy had grown no faster in the 1990s than in the 1980s, they claimed.

虽然新千年的政策没有中断，但2000-01年至2002-03年间的平均年增长率暴跌至4.1%。随后，不仅是媒体，学术界也纷纷发表了悲观的声明。经济学家布拉德福德•德隆对印度的改革持怀疑态度，而达尼•罗德里克和阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚则更进一步，辩称1991年后的改革毫无成效。他们声称，20世纪90年代的经济增长速度比不上80年代。

But the celebrations of reform critics did not last long. Sustained policy reform by Prime Ministers Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee yielded handsome returns. During the last year of Vajpayee government, the economy grew 7.9%. In the following years it accelerated, growing at the average annual rate of 8.2% for a continuous nine-year period from 2003-04 to 2011-12. Even the massive global financial crisis could jolt the economy only for a year with growth returning to 8.5% on average during 2009-10 to 2011-12.

但是对改革的批评并没有持续多久。总理纳拉辛哈·拉奥和阿塔尔·比哈里·瓦杰帕伊的持续政策改革产生了可观的回报。瓦杰帕伊政府执政的最后一年，经济增长了7.9%。在接下来的几年里更是加速增长，从2003-04年到2011-12年连续9年实现了年均8.2%的速度增长。即使是大规模的全球金融危机也在2009-10年至2011-12年期间让经济增速回落至8.5%的情况。

Unfortunately, multiple policy mistakes by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) during its second term culminated in a slowdown once again. The average growth rate fell a tad below the 6% mark during the second half of the term. At its worst during this downturn, growth rate dipped to a low 4.3% in January-March 2013 quarter.

不幸的是，联合进步联盟在其第二个任期内的多次政策失误再次导致经济放缓。下半年的平均增长率略低于6%。在这次经济衰退最糟糕的时候，2013年第一季度的增长率降至4.3%。

The fall once again saw pessimists surface. In a 2012 report, Standard & Poor’s rhetorically asked, ‘Will India Be the First BRIC Fallen Angel?’ Echoing the sentiment, in its August 23, 2013 story titled ‘India in Trouble: The Reckoning’, the Economist declared, “It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.”

这次下跌再次让悲观主义者浮出水面。标准普尔在2012年的一份报告中问道，印度会成为金砖四国中第一个倒下的天使吗？《经济学人》在2013年8月23日发表的题为《印度陷入困境:清算》的文章呼应了这一观点。文章称，“人们普遍认为，印度正处于1991年以来最严重的经济困境。”

But the Indian economy disappointed pessimists yet again. With some key UPA mistakes corrected and investor confidence restored, the economy returned to the healthy pace of 7.5% on average during 2014-15 to 2018-19. Many had predicted that demonetisation of high-denomination currency notes, announced on November 8, 2016, would bring the economy down on its feet. But it continued its advance, growing robustly at 8.2% in 2016-17.

但印度经济再次让悲观主义者失望。随着团结进步联盟一些错误的纠正和投资者信心的恢复，经济在2014-15年至2018-19年期间恢复了7.5%的平均健康步伐。许多人曾预测，2016年11月8日宣布的大面额纸币的废钞令将使经济陷入困境。但经济继续前进，2016-17年强劲增长8.2%。

Unsurprisingly, pessimists are back in the saddle. Some say that India has now gone into a recession. Others capitalise on the prevailing gloom to fantastically claim that the economy grew no more than 3-5% prior to the current slowdown. Still others feel nostalgic about UPA years stating that scams and paralysis notwithstanding, “we were hovering around 8%” under it. The memory of 4.3% growth during January-March 2013 quarter under UPA has all but faded.

不出所料，悲观主义者又回来了。有人说印度现在已经进入衰退。另一些人则利用当前的低迷形势，声称经济增长在当前的放缓之前不超过3-5%。还有一些人怀念国大党执政的那些年，说尽管存在欺诈和瘫痪，“我们的GDP始终在8%上下徘徊”。2013年1 - 3月4.3%的增长几乎已成为过去时。

This history should give us some pause as we assess the prospects of Indian economy in the medium to long run. There is no denying that the economy is going through a rough patch. But let us not forget that we have been here before. There is absolutely no reason for the panic that seems to grip many in the commentariat.

在我们评估印度经济的中长期前景时，这段历史应该让我们稍作停顿。不可否认，经济正在经历一段艰难时期。但我们不要忘记，我们以前也遇到过这种困境。让许多评论员感到不安的恐慌完全没来由。

At the heart of the current slowdown is the process of cleaning up non-performing assets. It has considerably weakened the balance sheets of corporates as well as banks. As the cleanup process progresses and measures are taken to strengthen bank balance sheets, growth is bound to pick up. In the meantime, the government should remain focused on its long-term reform agenda.

当前经济放缓的核心是清理不良资产的过程。这对企业和银行的资产负债表造成了沉重打击。随着清理工作的进展和加强银行资产负债表的措施，经济增长必然会加快速度。与此同时，政府仍应专注于其长期改革议程。

《印度经济时报》网站读者评论：

 译文来源：三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/49011.html      译者：Joyceliu

Yashodhan Muzumdar

a failed renegade advisor, giving talk on economics from U.S.can he show us any paper written by him which was a path-breaking. only praising Modi since 2010.

这是个失败的变节顾问，在美国做经济演讲，他能给我们看看他写任何有新意的文章吗？从2010年以来只知道一味赞美莫迪。

Realdeshbhakt

Since there is no incentive ,there wont be any growth

因为没有激励，就不会有任何增长。

Mahem Dwivedi

agree with the author; India will bounce back based on fundamentals and internal demand/consumption. outsiders have a habit of sensationalizing topics which will help them shine into limelight based on random comments and superficial study. India produces smart, intelligent and hard working people; thats in our DNA. Regardless of current or future leaders and whether BJP or Congress or anyone else, India will grow into a superpower because of the country's DNA. its a matter of time!

我同意作者的说法；印度经济将在基本面和内需/消费的基础上反弹。外行人有个特点，就是对一些话题进行耸人听闻的报道，这些报道会让他们通过随意的评论和肤浅的研究成为众人关注的焦点。印度培养了聪明、勤奋的人；这是我们的DNA。不管现任或未来的领导人是什么，不管印度人民党还是国大党还是其他什么人，印度都会因为印度的发展而成为超级大国，因为我们国家有这样的DNA。这只是时间问题！

Satendra Yadav

The author tried to be too smart and optimistic about time frames of economic turmoils since 1991..but forgot a basic pointer between earlier slowdowns and today's one..and the difference is DEMAND..earlier slowdowns were not affected by demand collapse, but this time, it is...so, my dear author, before writing articles, please do some research..

自1991年以来，作者试图过于聪明和乐观地解读经济动荡的时间框架。但忘记了一个基本问题…区别在于需求。早些时候的经济放缓没有受到需求崩溃的影响，但这一次……所以，我亲爱的作者，在写文章之前，请先做些研究。

Mahem Dwivedi

and you’re a qualified economist to say this or ..

你是一个合格的经济学家。

Realdeshbhakt

Every indian is more qualified in economoics comared to chaiwala and his chelas.The followers always try to copy their leader.If leader is just ingoistic,dumb,uneducated,arrogant chaiwala,followers will be same

每一个印度人都比茶贩子和他的属下更懂经济学。追随者总是试图模仿他们的领袖。如果领导者只是个沙文主义、愚蠢、没受过教育、傲慢的茶贩子，追随者也会是这样。

Mahem Dwivedi

:) what an argument? if youre smart enough to write here, youre smart enough to contribute in your own way, i believe collectively it makes a difference. you should focus on whats in your control and let it add on. Its a mindset! Cheers bro, no hard feelings and nothing against you..

这是什么论点？如果你有足够的智慧在这里写作，你就有足够的智慧用你自己的方式贡献，我相信从整体上来说，它会发生变化的。你应该把注意力放在你所能控制的事情上。干杯兄弟，我没有恶意，也不是想针对你。

Amit Kapoor

Leave jobs development bjp is busy in burning India

印度人民党已经放弃就业增长了，只知道折磨印度。

Rational Centrist

Wish there were more facts than conjectures and innuendos - would've made for a good read.E.g. "With some key UPA mistakes corrected and investor confidence restored, the economy returned to the healthy pace.." - which UPA mistakes, and how were they corrected within a year or two?For those of us who are politically neutral, these pieces seem more like mudslinging on social media

要是有更多的事实，而不是只有猜测和影射就好了。“国大党纠正了一些关键的错误，恢复了投资者的信心，经济恢复了健康的步伐。”指的是团结进步联盟的哪些错误呢？如何在一两年内改正？对于我们这些政治中立的人来说，这些文章更像是社交媒体上的诽谤。

Mukund Kansal

Guys in centre are too arrogant...

政府里的家伙太傲慢了……

Sell It

When you have a government that is more interested in selling its educated citizens to whiteman in global slave trade this is about to happen. Why our politicians ask for visas ? Why our government protects Marwadi businessmen that pay peanuts ? Why our government never spends money on its citizens ?? Why they don’t have programs to create very high paying jobs in India ??? Our high paying jobs are whiteman dependent...

当政府更有兴趣在全球奴隶贸易中把受过教育的公民卖给白人时，这种情况就会发生。为什么我们的政客要申请签证？为什么我们的政府要保护那些只付很少钱的马尔瓦迪商人？为什么我们的政府从来不把钱花在公民身上？为什么他们没有在印度创造高薪工作？我们的高薪工作依赖白人……

True Indian

How long one can only climb fast .....some time one need take rest and again climb....

一个人能爬多快…有时我们需要休息一下，然后才能继续出发…

SANKARANARAYANAN V

The economy is still in the process of formalisation. History will repeat as Aravind Panangariya mentioned. Unlike any other develo economies we have so many indifferent groups who them selves feel as great economists and mislead the people.

经济仍处于正规化的过程中。历史将会重演，正如阿拉温德·帕南加里亚所说。与其他发展家不同的是，我们有许多冷漠的群体，他们自认为是伟大的经济学家，却只会误导人们。

Satendra Yadav

My dear, you don't need to be champion in economics to understand basic difference between demand and supply during time periods which author mentioned..also, request you to check data since 1991, manufacturing, employment, consumer confidence, supply and demand..everything was favouring earlier..this time it's demand, not supply issue..so, things are not as rosy as author has tried t potray

亲爱的，你无需成为经济学冠军来理解作者所提到的时期内需求和供给的基本区别。同时，请您查阅自1991年以来的数据，制造业、就业、消费者信心、供求…一切都很积极。这次的问题是需求问题，不是供应问题。所以，事情并不像作者所认为的那么美好。

AG

The 7.5% growth figure put out by the NaMo sarkar was arrived at after base and index changes. Without those, growth would have been a measly 5.5%-6%.

印度经济学家纳莫•萨卡尔给出的7.5%的增长数字是在基数和指数发生变化后得出的。如果没有这些，增长就只有可怜的5.5%-6%。

Nupur Bandopadhay

Stop putting these paid articles ! We have had enough of Pangariya giving us advice sitting in US and bringing us to a state of financial crisis ! For a change tell the truth !

别再发布这些付费文章了！我们已经受够了Pangariya给我们的建议，他只会坐在美国，把我们带到金融危机的状态！下次说实话吧！

Bhawarlal Chandak

INDIA GROWTH STORY OF 2003-08 WAS AN OVER-ESTIMATION OF PRIVATE CORPORATE SECTOR INVESTMENT. IN FACT, SO-CALLED GOLDEN GROWTH PERIOD OF 2003-08 WAS THE PERIOD DURING WHICH THE VERY FOUNDATION OF MANUFACTURING WAS DAMAGED BY MASSIVE CHINESE IMPORT [58% CAGR] AND EXCESS FINANCIALISATION OF CORPORATE SECTOR. EXCESSIVE FINANCIALISATION WAS DUE TO CIRCULAR FLOW OF FUNDS BETWEEN BANKS AND CORPORATE. CORPORATE GOT BULK LOAN FROM BANKS AT SUB-PLR RATES AND LOW-COST ECB LOANS AND MADE BULK DEPOSITS WITH BANKS AND FINANCIAL INVESTMENT. UNFORTUNATELY, CSO GOING BY FUNDS-FLOW BASIS HAVE TAKEN BANK CREDIT FLOW TO CORPORATES AS CAPEX. WHAT A FALSE UNDERSTANDING OF CSO AND RBI RESULTING IN WRONG HIGH GROWTH RATE DURING THE PERIOD ? I HAVE WRITTEN TO RBI, MINISTRY OF FINANCE BUT NO REPLY.

印度2003-08年的增长是对私营企业投资的高估。事实上，所谓的2003-08年黄金增长期正是印度大量进口(58%的复合年增长率)和企业过度金融化破坏了制造业基础的时期。过度金融化源于银行和企业之间的资金循环流动。企业以低于plr的利率从银行获得了大量贷款，并从欧洲央行获得了低成本贷款，并在银行进行了大量存款和金融投资。不幸的是，CSO以资金流动为基础，将银行对企业的信贷流动作为资本支出。对CSO和RBI的错误理解导致了错误的高增长？我已经写信给印度央行，财政部，但是没有回复。

Vitthal P

One sided view to defend the stupidity of Modi and his government. Such lame tricks to hide the real problem and mess that Modi has created for India's economy will only make matters worse for ordinary Indians.

这是为莫迪及其政府的愚蠢辩护的片面观点。莫迪为印度经济制造的这些掩盖真实问题和混乱的蹩脚把戏只会让普通印度人的生活变得更糟。

Sanjay Sawant

Last paragraph summarises everything in favor of current govt.

最后一段总结了所有有利于现政府的事情。

Raman

This chap is still blaming UPA after 5 years of Modi and stupidity of Modi Govt. Absolute nonsense dished out to fool the fools. The damage Modi and this BJP govt have done so far to the economy it is impossible to recover in near future. Look at the state of industries .. almost everyone's topline is negative for last 3-4 quarters. Jobs in private sector is scarce and youth is not sure of what to do after graduation. S Swamy has already said that today India's GDP is close to 1% percent. If some extra smarty pant is still blaming UPA for the current mess then we its foolish to expect anything from this Modi govt.

这家伙在莫迪和莫迪政府的5年愚蠢行径之后，还舔着脸指责国大党。到目前为止，莫迪和人民党政府对经济造成的损害在不久的将来是不可能恢复的。看看现在的工业。私企的工作很少，年轻人不确定毕业后该做什么。斯瓦米已经说过，今天印度的GDP接近1%。如果自作聪明的人仍然把当前的混乱归咎于国大党，那么我们就期待莫迪政府的作为吧。

Gopal Sriniwasan

Dude, all the ill-gotten wealth and black money was used in real estate, purchase of automobiles, Bullion, foreign travel.it has come to a halt. This is the truth.

老兄，所有的不义之财和黑钱都被用在房地产、购买汽车、金银、出国旅游上了。这是事实。

Satendra Yadav

tell me any country that runs without corruption brainy..

告诉我哪个国家没有腐败？

Lucky Maurya

Jobless people do not buy anything. Thanks to fekuji. All major sector is down. According to your gappi logic everything will be declared black money.

失业者不会购买任何东西。感谢莫迪。所有主要行业的表现都越来越差。根据你的逻辑，所有东西都会被宣布为黑钱。

Mahem Dwivedi

i have no doubt there are many of your mindset who believe that growth even with corruption is normal. transparency, corruption free, and building up a nation based on the constitution is looking at long term sustainable growth.short term problems are unavoidable

我毫不怀疑，你们当中有许多人相信，即使存在腐败，经济增长也是正常的。透明，无腐败，建立一个基于宪法的国家是着眼于长期的可持续增长。短期问题是不可避免的

NK Singh

In the past, we had better teams making better policies. Bigger macro trends like savings rate and investment rate were intact.

在过去，我们有更好的团队制定更好的政策。储蓄率和投资率等更大的宏观趋势保持不变。

Balasubramanian Krishnamurthy

One has to agree with the author.

我们不得不同意作者的观点。

Swagat Saikia

Article is biased towards a particular government

这篇文章对某个政府有偏见。

Govindlal Parmar

wonderful factual analysis. let pesimists take rest

绝妙的事实分析。让悲观主义者滚一边去吧。

Satendra Yadav

Factual?? pls wake up, drink some water, take a snap and first, look at the data from 1991 and then comment...i sincerely want you to be an informed person and not just a blind optimist!

事实? ?醒醒吧，喝点水，拍张照片，先看看1991年的数据，然后再来评论…我真诚地希望你是一个见多识广的人，而不是盲目的乐观主义者!

Shri Mahesh

Global recession, not just in India Desis. Dont believe , America, EU, Japan numbers like ours, all falthu. Chill, eat, relax, sleep. No worries. Cheers, Sweeties.

全球都在衰退，不只是印度的问题。别相信、美国、欧盟、日本的数据，他们和我们一样都是假的。放轻松，该吃吃，该睡睡。不用担心。干杯，亲们。

外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/is-indias-growth-story-over-not-quite-history-shows-there-have-been-ups-and-downs-in-the-past-too/articleshow/72737615.cms