印度的地缘政治失误将导致经济灾难

India's Geopolitical Blunder Will Lead to Economic Woes

印度的地缘政治失误将导致经济灾难

India’s decision to pull out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a new fifteen-member trade bloc, may make sense for domestic economic and political reasons. However, it delivers a blow to New Delhi’s geopolitical goals. It also has problematic implications for Tokyo—one of India’s most important partners—and for the Trump administration’s interests in Asia.

RCEP ran the risk of opening Indian markets up to cheap goods, threatening above all a critical but sluggish manufacturing industry that New Delhi has struggled to energize. This is no small matter for a country already experiencing major trade deficits with most RCEP members and suffering through its biggest economic slowdown in six years.

Meanwhile, RCEP had attracted considerable opposition in India, from firms to farmers. New Delhi couldn’t afford to alienate key constituencies, including a farming class already reeling from crippling debt and drought—and especially as the government contemplates an economic recovery plan that will likely entail tough measures that could eat into Modi’s, and his party’s, immense popularity. In effect, Modi’s decision to walk away from RCEP reflects a desire to put Indian interests first. This is, after all, an unabashedly conservative and nationalist government.

However, India’s rejection of RCEP—which is comprised entirely of nations, including , within Asia—undercuts its goal of becoming a more active player in Asia. Indeed, the move may bring domestic benefits to India, but it also means India will squander multiple geopolitical opportunities.

印度决定退出由15个成员国组成的新贸易集体——区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)，可能有其国内经济和政治方面的考量。然而，这对新德里的地缘政治目标是一个打击。这对日本(印度最重要的合作伙伴之一)和特朗普政府在亚洲的利益也带来了问题。

RCEP有向廉价商品开放印度市场的风险，最重要的是威胁到印度政府一直难以振兴的重要但萧条的制造业。这对一个已经与大多数RCEP成员国存在严重贸易逆差、并遭遇6年来最严重经济放缓的国家来说，不是一件小事。

与此同时，RCEP在印度引起了从企业到农民的广泛反对。新德里无法承受疏远关键选民的后果，其中包括已经受到严重债务和干旱影响的农民阶层，尤其是在政府正在考虑某项经济复苏计划的时候，该计划可能需要采取强硬措施，可能会侵蚀莫迪及其政党的巨大支持率。实际上，莫迪退出RCEP的决定反映了他把印度利益放在首位的愿望。毕竟，这是一个毫不掩饰的保守和民族主义政府。

然而，印度对RCEP的拒绝削弱了其成为亚洲更积极参与者的目标。的确，此举可能会给印度带来国内利益，但也意味着印度将浪费多个地缘政治机遇。

New Delhi’s Act East policy entails shoring up relations with countries to its east, and particularly the ASEAN states, to unlock energy and other economic opportunities, as well as to deepen its footprint in a region where its rival looms large. The policy intends to help India compensate for its non-membership in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), a global trade partnership of twenty-one Pacific Rim states that includes most ASEAN states. Saying no to RCEP is a missed opportunity to strengthen relations with the very ASEAN states.

Keep in mind as well India’s broader strategic goal of enhancing its role on the world stage in its efforts to become—and be seen as—a rising and responsible power. This is a particularly paramount goal for the Modi government, which views Hindu nationalism not only as an effort to elevate the status of Hindus at home but also to make India a great nation abroad.

For all these reasons, backing out of RCEP—which with India as a member would have comprised half the world’s population and almost 30 percent of global gross domestic product—isn’t a good look for New Delhi.

新德里的“向东行动”(Act East)政策需要加强与东部国家的关系，尤其是与东盟国家的关系，以释放能源和其他经济机遇，并深化其在该地区的影响力。在该地区，印度的竞争对手实力十分强大。该政策旨在帮助印度弥补其未加入亚太经济合作组织(APEC)的损失。APEC是由21个环太平洋国家组成的全球贸易伙伴关系，其中包括大多数东盟国家。对RCEP说“不”错过了一个加强与东盟国家关系的机会。

印度更广泛的战略目标是加强其在世界舞台上的作用，努力成为——并被视为——一个崛起的负责任的大国。这对莫迪政府来说是一个特别重要的目标，他们认为印度教民族主义不仅是为了提升印度教徒在国内的地位，也是为了让印度在国外成为一个伟大的国家。

由于所有这些原因，退出RCEP对新德里来说不是一个好兆头。如果加入RCEP，印度将占世界人口的50%，全球国内生产总值的近30%。

美国雅虎读者的评论

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49027.html 译者：Joyceliu

Putin5 hours ago

it’s better to keep goods out
india won’t make the blunder USA made

最好把商品挡在国门之外。

印度不会犯美国犯过的错误。

Joe7 hours ago

Been to India once on a business trip and that will be the last!!! This country need to do more for the people!!!!

去印度出差过一次，那绝对是我最后一次去印度!! 这个国家应该努力了!!

Captain Downer7 hours ago

SUPERPOWER 2020 LOL

2020年要成为超级大国哈哈。

Guru32 minutes ago

That was the best thing Modi did for India.It never allowed it to be blackmailed by just as it is doing to US now allowing all manufactured goods in that country. holds US by its scruff.

这是莫迪为印度做的最好的事情。它从未允许它被勒索，就像它现在对我们做的那样，允许所有的制成品进入那个国家。抓着我们不放。

Anamjem / WAK.4 hours ago

Many Indians on trade from but not from India~ Most Tech industries from Delhi to Karnataka are buying products ex direct to India or from UAE! And those Indians are generating huge amount of revenues for India. Modi's policies on trade as well on Muslims definitely dragging India down to dearth!

许多印度人把商品卖到印度，而不是把印度商品卖到——从德里到卡纳塔克邦的大多数科技产业都从直接采购产品，进口到印度或阿联酋!这些印度人为印度创造了巨额收入。莫迪在贸易和msl问题上的政策无疑将印度拖入饥荒!

Gordon4 hours ago

India sounds a lot smarter than the US on this issue. The US has allowed unlimited cheap imports from to destroy multiple manufacturing businesses and they are moving up the intellectual supply chain.

在这个问题上，印度听起来比美国聪明得多。美国允许从进口无限制的廉价商品，摧毁了多家制造业企业，这些企业正在向知识供应链上游移动。

JNF25 hours ago

No economic woes hahahahhahahah The country is prospering and going in the right direction

没有经济困境，哈哈哈，这个国家正走在通往繁荣的正确之路上。

Q501s7 hours ago

Modi is a blunder.

莫迪是个大蠢蛋。

Anonymous5 hours ago

Modi is reincarnation of HITLER in India. The people are suffering, Economy is in worst shape in six years, and he is playing flute like Nero.

莫迪在印度就是希特勒的化身。人民正在受苦受难，经济处于六年以来最糟糕的状态，而他还像尼禄一样吹着笛子享乐。

N5 hours ago

BJP press release !

人民党的新闻通稿!

Karim6 hours ago

Modi would be worse than Hitler if were in 1930s.

如果现在是1930年代，莫迪只会比希特勒更糟糕。

W7 hours ago

propaganda machine is working full force targeted against India. Modi Govt. is doing everything to protect interests of India.

的宣传机器正在全力针对印度。莫迪政府正在尽一切努力保护印度的利益。

boobielvr5 hours ago

What the Ef US and EU doing ? Sitting and watching? They should double down India with sanctions and it will bring them down to nees.

美国和欧盟在做什么呢？坐视不管吗？他们应该加倍制裁印度，这样就能狠狠打压印度。

Putin5 hours ago

USA opened its doors to and got royally destriyed
Now US president is forcing Apple to manufacture in Texas instead of

美国向敞开了大门，却遭到了惨败。

现在，美国总统逼迫苹果公司在德克萨斯州生产，而不是。

Guru34 minutes ago

If only two ships from stop delivering goods to US ,then US is finished.

只要两艘船只不再向美国发货，美国就完蛋了。

Guru35 minutes ago

The fate of it can be seen in US. Other than babies everything is produced in .

可以在美国身上看到它的命运。除了婴儿，所有的一切都是在生产的。

russeljohn51 minutes ago

People of Indian origin pretty much run major companies in the world .. every-where .. this has been goin on for ages .. pretty sure they know what they r doing & will do what's good for them .. the rest , take a chill pill .

印度裔的人几乎管理着世界上的大公司。全世界。这种情况已经持续很久了。我很清楚他们知道自己在做什么，会做对他们有益的事情。剩下的，冷静点儿。

Ramiro5 hours ago

Ladies/Gentlemen: India will be back at the table soon enough. This is nothing less than a negotiation tactic.

女士们/先生们：印度很快就会回到谈判桌前。这完全是一种谈判策略。

BigTrannyMike4 hours ago

Wonder why liberals hate Good Strong leaders

奇怪的是，为什么自由主义者讨厌好的强势领导人。

Citizen X3 hours ago

Actually, it will lead to the USA losing more power. Ultimately, the biggest loser is the USA as it will cause a mass defection from swift and the dollar. The USA must begin a backwards integration strategy to fix the debt and liquidity crisis. This will mean yielding geo political will while they reset.

事实上，这将导致美国失去更多的权力，最终，最大的输家是美国，因为它将导致美元的大规模叛逃。美国必须开始逆向整合战略来解决债务和流动性危机。这将意味着在他们重新设定时，要放弃地缘政治意愿。

Muhammad38 minutes ago

NO, it's not a blunder - it's great. Keep away !!!
India is forging individual partnerships with countries that are truly wanting to do business and not practice "gouging".

不，这不是一个错误，这是伟大的策略。远离！！

印度正在与那些真正想做生意而不是搞“欺诈”的国家建立单独的伙伴合作关系。

Motionless Mind6 hours ago

National Interest- the doom monger!

国家利益——厄运制造者!

Miraj I7 hours ago

Modi has been exposed as the uneducated fool that he is.

莫迪被曝光了，他就是一个没受过教育的傻瓜。

Putin5 hours ago

whoever wrote this article is a moron
USA made the biggest blunder of its. entire history by partnering with and got its manufacturing decimated
India won’t make the blunder USA made

写这篇文章的人是个白痴。

美国犯了最大的错误。美国和合作的结果就是美国制造业被毁于一旦。

印度不会犯美国犯过的错误。