Forecast puts GDP growth at 11-year low of 5%

印度2019-2020财年GDP增长率预测为5%，为11年来的最低水平

NEW DELHI: The economy is forecast to grow at its slowest pace in 11 years in 2019-20, dragged down by anaemic manufacturing, slowing services sector growth, as well as sluggish investment and consumption. With the Union Budget less than a month away, the dismal forecast will add pressure on the authorities to revive the economy.

新德里：受制造业疲弱、服务业增长放缓、投资和消费低迷的拖累，预计到2019- 2020年，印度经济增速将降至11年来的最低水平。距联邦预算公布不到一个月，这一令人沮丧的预测将给当局重振经济带来压力。

The National Statistical Office on Tuesday forecast GDP growth to be 5% in 2019-20, slower than the previous year's 6.8% and in line with the RBI estimate. If this growth is realised, then it would be the slowest since 3.1% posted in 2008-09 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Nominal GDP, which is the market value of goods and services produced in the economy but not adjusted for inflation, is estimated to grow at a42-year low of 7.5%.

印度国家统计局周二预计，2019- 2020年印度GDP增速为5%，低于上年6.8%的增速，与印度央行的估计相符。如果这一增长成为现实，那么这将是自全球金融危机后2008-09年3.1%增速以来的最低增速。名义GDP(不考虑通胀因素的商品和服务的市场价值)预计将以7.5%的速度增长，为42年来的最低水平。

Manufacturing is estimated to slow to 2% in 2019-20 from 6.9% the previous year while the services sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, is forecast to grow by 6.9%, slower than 7.5% in the previous year.

预计到2019- 2020年，制造业增速将从前一年的6.9%降至2%，而占经济近60%的服务业增速将为6.9%，低于前一年的7.5%。

GDP data points to weak investment in FY20

GDP数据显示2020财年投资疲软

Economists said there is a sharp decline in the growth of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) from 10% in FY19 (revised estimate) to 1% in FY20 (advance estimate), reflecting the subdued investment activity in the economy.

经济学家表示，固定资本形成总额(GFCF)的增长率从2019财年的10%(修正后)大幅下降至2020财年的1%(预估)，反映出投资活动低迷。

The government aims to rein in the fiscal deficit at 3.3% of gross domestic product in the current fiscal year but the pressure on revenues may widen the deficit. There have been calls for relaxng the deficit target to provide space for stimulus to the economy but the government has so far maintained that it will stick to the path of fiscal consolidation.

印度政府的目标是将本财年的财政赤字控制在GDP的3.3%，但财政收入的压力可能会扩大赤字。有人呼吁放宽赤字目标，为刺激经济提供空间，但印度政府迄今仍将坚持财政稳固之路。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎   译者：Jessica.Wu

Shaktimaan • 6 hours ago

GDP at 11 year low? Modi hai to mumkin hai!

印度GDP增速处于11年低点?

TEABOY is gujju • TEABOY is gujju • Delhi • 8 hours ago

No problem...10th std failed tea boy will inflate figures and forecast 10 trillion dollars economy

没事，卖茶人会夸大数据，会预测印度经济规模将达到10万亿美元

Nadeem Akram Shaikh • 6 hours ago

Real GDP is 2.8 only

印度实际GDP增速仅为2.8

VasaiKars M• 7 hours ago

Revised method of calculation govt is saying 5 percent. God knows real gdp.

修改算法后是5%，天知道实际数据是多少

Sohail Rajwani • 7 hours ago

They said economy will grow by 10 percent they meant for ambani and adani lol , reliance shares were 400 RS in 2014 and now 1500 RS in 2020 that's called ache din murkho

他们说经济增速将达到10%，他们指的是安巴尼和阿达尼的财富增速，信实的股价在2014年是400卢比，现在是1500卢比。

Yashodhan • Mumbai • 5 hours ago

11 year low but Modi wants it 70 year low and then start from Scratch.

11年低点，但莫迪想要70年低点，然后从头开始。

Amit Kumar Sharma • Israel • 4 hours ago

Modi a failure

莫迪失败了

Mohsin Sayed • Pune • 7 hours ago

Same people who voted for modi and his economics will bring on street and stone him ........

He is made India a joke

那些投票给莫迪的人会走上街头，用石头砸他

他让印度成了一个笑话

Vivek • 3 hours ago

GDP is anti national, economy is anti national.

GDP是反国家的，经济是反国家的。

Tamal Chaudhuri • 4 hours ago

5% is fudged. In reality we are at 3.5% if we compare to the old method. Gloom has set in as Lotus blooms

5%都是捏造的，实际上是3.5%

Abhijit Sharma • 5 hours ago

This is the worst government. Economy is in crisis, no jobs, high food inflation, extortion in the name of taxes, challan, rapes

这届政府是最糟糕的。经济危机，失业率高，通货膨胀居高不下，税收多如牛毛，实质上是在敲诈勒索，强奸案频发。

Siddhartha • Bengaluru • 6 hours ago

And modi is not worried. He is enjoying, laughing, and thinking new plan to fool Indian citizens .

莫迪并不担心，他很享受，正在思考忽悠印度公民的新计划。

Rajender • New Delhi • 4 hours ago

The condition of economic is very grim

印度经济形势十分严峻

Anthony • goa • 3 hours ago

This number is fake, its gone below 4 percent

数据是假的，实际上印度GDP增速低于4%

Rajesh Vyas• 2 hours ago

who knows the real figure?

谁知道真实数据是多少?

Arun • 3 hours ago

No problem. Build temple implement CAA NRC. GDP will be back :P.

没事，修寺庙，颁布公民法修正案，印度GDP增速就能恢复。

Iqbal • Mumbai • 4 hours ago

with tension in the middle east, thanks to modi's friend trump ,oil prices are set to soars, the economy will be below 5% by year end.

中东局势紧张，多亏了莫迪的朋友特朗普，油价将飙升，到年底印度经济增速将低于5%。

srini • hyd • 2 hours ago

That's why Modi brought CAA.

所以莫迪才要出台公民法修正案

Anjan Kesh • 3 hours ago

Citizens get the govt they deserve. You voted power hungry crooks like modi and goons like shah, what did you expect?

活该，这届印度政府是你们投票选出来的。你们投票给了莫迪这样的骗子，沙阿这样的暴徒，还期待什么?

Hemanta • 5 hours ago

India need to be solved this problem very quickly with great efforts.

印度需要付出巨大努力，尽快解决这个问题。

Dyubm • 3 hours ago

India has become a circus now. Enjoy it

印度现在成了一个马戏团，好好享受吧

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/forecast-puts-gdp-growth-at-11-year-low-of-5/articleshow/73146712.cms

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