'Modi govt's USD 5-trillion GDP target by 2024 looks unimaginably ambitious'

“莫迪政府2024年5万亿美元GDP的目标看起来太过雄心勃勃了。”

NEW DELHI: India would need to grow at 9 per cent to achieve the target of USD 5 trillion economy by 2024, which currently looks "unimaginably ambitious", eminent economist R Nagaraj said on Sunday. Soon after assuming office for the second term in May 2019, the Narendra Modi-led government set a target of taking the economy to USD 5 trillion over the next five years.

新德里：著名经济学家R Nagaraj周日表示，印度需要以9%的速度增长，才能在2024年之前实现5万亿美元的经济目标，目前看来这是“难以完成的痴人梦话”。纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的政府在2019年5月开始第二任期后不久就设定了这一目标，要在未来五年内将经济规模扩大到5万亿美元。

But there have been several clouds over the economy since then, leading many to question the maintainability of the target.

但自那以来，印度经济一直阴云密布，导致许多人质疑这一目标是否还能达成。

India's GDP is currently estimated at around USD 2.8 trillion.

印度目前的GDP估计在2.8万亿美元左右。

"The target appears exceptionally daunting, if not impossible, going by the record of the current decade. Last July, as per my estimate, India needed to grow on average at 9 per cent per year in real terms from the fiscal year 2020 to 2024 to achieve the target of 5 trillion dollar economy.

“就当前十年的记录来看，这一目标就算不是完全无法实现，也是格外艰巨。去年7月，据我估计，从2020年到2024年，印度需要以年均9%的实际增长率，才能实现5万亿美元的经济增长目标。”

"With the growth rate slum, the goal looks unimaginably ambitious," Nagaraj, a professor of economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), told .

“随着经济增长率的下滑，这个目标看起来过于激进了，”英迪拉·甘地发展研究所的经济学教授Nagaraj说。

India's GDP growth is seen dip to an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and construction sectors, as per government data.

根据政府数据，印度当前财政年度的GDP增长率预计将降至5%，为11年低点，主要原因是制造业和建筑业的表现不佳。

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2019-20 was 5 per cent, which further slipped to 4.5 per cent in the subsequent three-month period.

2019- 2020年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长5%，在随后的3个月期间进一步下滑至4.5%。

Talking about rising trade tensions, he said the prospects of a reversal in declining trends look very unlikely.

谈到不断加剧的贸易紧张局势，他说，扭转下降趋势的可能性非常小。

"India's exports to GDP ratio has steadily declined since the early 2010s. So, I don't see any signs of reversal of the declining trends," he said.

“自2010年代初以来，印度出口占GDP的比例一直在稳步下降。因此，我没有看到任何逆转下降趋势的迹象。”

Asked whether a fiscal stimulus is the only way out of the slowdown, Nagaraj said that lowering of interest rates over the last few years has not helped and there is a need for fiscal stimulus.

在被问及财政刺激是否是摆脱经济放缓的唯一途径时，Nagaraj表示，过去几年的降息没有起到帮助作用，有必要实施财政刺激。

On the upcoming Budget for 2020-21, he said, "I hope the Budget targets a high and rising investment to GDP ratio for the next 3-4 years with credible budgetary figures, and with a bright, implementable strategy in place."

在即将公布的2020-21年预算中，他表示:“我希望预算目标是在未来3-4年内，在可靠的预算数字和明智的、可实施的战略的支持下，实现投资占GDP的比例不断上升的高目标。”

以下是《印度经济时报》网站读者评论：

译文来源：三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/49179.html     译者：Joyceliu

Sanujit Roy

All need to pull up socks

所有人都需要勒紧裤腰带了。

Ranjan Kar

NaMo has perfected the art of telling an untruth so convincingly that the cattles start believing it totally and vote for him. That is the pity for this country

莫迪完美地掌握了说谎的艺术，他说的假话如此令人信服，连牛都开始完全相信了，还把票投给了他。这真是这个国家的遗憾呐。

Kannan V M

What is there to utter something? So many tall claims were made in 2013, like bringing down the petrol price and the exchange rate per dollar to below Rs.45/- within 3 months of coming to power. What has happened subsequently every citizen knows.This too is like that only. This is the need of the hour because the common man is reeling under the burden of soaring prices, job loss and unemployment.

有什么好说的?2013年他可是发表了很多高论，比如在上台后3个月内将汽油价格和美元兑卢比汇率降至45卢比以下。后来怎么样了，每个公民都知道。GDP这个口号也是一样。这是当下的需要，因为普通民众在物价飙升、失业和失业的重压下步履蹒跚。

Dilip Porwal

Modi hai to mumkin hai!

莫迪万岁!

Vikas Baliyan

AGREE

同意

Shantanu

Nobody literate believes this target anyway. It's just another Modi-Shah jumla to divert attention from all the real issues this regime has failed in.

没人真的相信这个目标。这不过是莫迪用来转移人们对这个政权失败的真正问题的注意力。

P D

Too pessimist. Modi alone is not driving the economy. An ambition to achieve to be welcome. Please be optimistic.

太悲观了。莫迪一个人并不能推动经济发展。但这是一种受到民众欢迎的愿景。请保持乐观。

Shantanu

Optimistic? With this gutter regime of illiterates, liars, goons and pseudo-nationals?

乐观？在这个由文盲、骗子、打手和伪君子组成的肮脏政权领导之下？

Gurudath Sathyavan

'Unimaginably Ambitious' ?? Why this play of words.

“难以完成的痴人梦话”? ? 为什么要玩这种文字游戏。

Chander Mohan Kohli

The Target of USD 5-trillion GDP by 2024 is achievable but Modi Govt has to bring stringent Economic Reforms in the areas of Agriculture. India has to be made Super Poer in Manufacturing, Foreign Trade, Land Procurement at a Faster pace and at economical Rates for Infrastructural /Industrial Mega Projects, Corrupt & Non- Performing bureaucracy? Problems are numerous. People of India look forward to Sh.Modi that he shall give his maxmum Time & Energy to uplift the Economy.

到2024年实现5万亿美元国内生产总值的目标是有可能的，但是莫迪政府必须在农业领域进行严格的经济改革。印度必须在制造业、外贸、土地采购、基础设施/工业大型项目、腐败和低效的官僚体制等方面，以更快的速度和更经济的速度成为超级势力。印度还有很多的问题。印度人民期待莫迪拿出最大的时间和精力来振兴经济。

Caba San Viejo

Modi who is a School- Drop - out don't have Academic Knowledge to achieve anything for India. Such illiterates like Modi, Criminals like Shah had black- mailed Ambedkar to permit them entry in Parliament while writing Constitution. So, Illiterates & Criminals are contesting Election and ruining Indian Economy.

辍学的莫迪没有学术知识，无法为印度取得任何成就。像莫迪这样的文盲，像沙阿这样的罪犯，给安贝德卡发了勒索信，让他们进入议会，起草宪法。所以，文盲和罪犯在参加竞选，破坏印度经济。

Shadi Katyal

For decades we have been reding why India was not moving forward but when Modi came people had hopes. Modi destroyed the nation with Note Bundi and now too busy destroying the nation with not essential Laws but showing fascist policies. The nation has lost its luster both as a de ocracy and a peaceful nation. The world has lost any hope of India develo but being lost in anarchy Nation cvannot develope without Law and Orderl

几十年来我们一直在提意见，为什么印度没有向前发展，当莫迪出现时，人们一度拥有了希望。莫迪用纸币摧毁了这个国家，现在正忙着用法西斯政策而不是基本法律摧毁这个国家。这个国家已经失去了民*与和平的光辉。世界已经失去了对印度发展的希望，印度正陷入无政府状态，没有法律和秩序的国家无法发展。

Amit Kapoor

You guys also take Feku so seriously.

你们把莫迪看得太重了。

Krishnamurthy Krishnamurthy

As long as Industrialists/Business men/Farmers treat the Bank loans as a bonus that the government is duty bound to make to them almost every year, maintenance of current level of GDP itself would be a miracle. In addition the country's unpredictable monsoons and shrinkage of employment opportunities to skilled/unskilled labourers in Islaamic countries in particular and other countries in general would put any government in troublesome situation. Therefore 5-trillian GDP targeted by 2024 by this government shall never be achieved unless they change the policy decisions from pet subjects to real monetary subjects to boost the purchasing power of all Indian citizens. But whether this government will do that is a big question.

只要实业家/商人/农民把银行贷款当作一种红利，政府几乎年年都理所应当地发放，那么维持当前的GDP水平本身就只能是一个奇迹。此外，该国不可预测的季风和特别是伊拉克和其他国家的熟练/非熟练工人就业机会的减少将使政府陷入困境。因此2024年5万亿的GDP目标永远也不可能实现，除非调整货币政策，提高印度公民的购买力。但现任政府是否会这么做，存在很大的疑问。

Mani Das

Naysayer are doomed. All others are charged up to achieve the goal of 5 trillion economy. Yes we will achieve it. But why this suspicion is the question. A country looted away for centuries and still have preserved its ethos and self respect to deny all intimidaion. Today on the beat of Swami Vibekananda " The 21st century belongs India"Bharat agar jogoto sobhaysreshtho alone lobe is the reality. It will be made a reality with efforts of every Indian for sure

老是唱反调的人是注定要失败的。其他人都为了实现5万亿经济的目标而努力。是的，我们会实现的。但问题在于人们为什么会持有这种怀疑。一个被掠夺了几个世纪的国家，仍然保留着它的民族精神和自尊，拒绝一切恐吓。在每个印度人的努力下，这个目标将成为现实。

A

Anti-Indian anti-Hindu pro-Congress pro-jihadi pro-separatist Feku Sonia and Rahul bhakt corrupt kala dhan hoarding trolls have been badly affected by demonetization and the loss of political power. Unfortunately, Modi will be in power until the day he dies.

反印度、反印度教、亲国大党、亲圣战、亲分裂主义者、菲库·索尼娅和拉胡尔受到了废钞令和政治权力丧失的严重影响。但很可惜，莫迪将掌权到生命的最后一天。

Nathan Ron

Nay sayers are one too many in this country. Even achieving 4 trillion over the next 4 years with systemic corrections being done one by one to our economy, banks etc, etc, will be laudable in this time frame.

在这个国家，唱反调的人太多了。甚至可能在未来4年达到4万亿美元，并对经济、银行等依次进行系统性调整，在这个时间框架内也是值得称赞的。

Ravi Vadaga

4 trillion does not require any leadership..The Country will grow independent of leadership..the pace of growth is in question.

4万亿不需要任何领导。这个国家将独立于领导之外。增长的速度受到质疑。

Vivek Dwivedi

Everyone forgets that this is Nominal GDP growth is how much India grows, and second is how much USD depreciates. If currency becomes an alternate to USD for global trading, USD may depreciate by say 20%. This will make India a 5 trillion economy overnight.

大家都忘记了，这是名义GDP增长，首先看印度增长了多少，其次是美元贬值了多少。如果货币成为全球贸易的美元替代品，美元可能将贬值20%。这就能让印度一夜之间成为5万亿的经济体。

Dominator Force

Get some brains or atleast rent it. Which cretin will use the Specious currency to deal in global trade to get enslaved to .

带点脑子吧，或者至少借点脑子。哪个白痴会用华而不实的人民币来进行全球贸易，从而被奴役。

VVSViswanath

No a days every body is a journalist,an economist and an activist.It is free for all.

现如今，每个人都是记者、经济学家和活动家。每个人都可以自由发言。

True Indian

atleast govt started to think on positive notes ....

至少政府开始往好的方面想了…

P N N

Unpredictale Modiji will overnight he will demonetised Rs.2000 currency notes to divert dismal performance.

行事难料的莫迪将在一夜之间废除2000卢比的纸币，以转移市场低迷的表现。

Thinking Idiot

5 Trillions target itself is quite stiff, yet Targets should be High so as to make Good effort to do so!!While 5 year plans in earlier period also never achieved as planned, yet good progress is made and Associated with Stiff targets!!A buzz goal is enough to Motivate!!

5万亿的目标本身是很艰巨的，但是目标就应该往高了定，这样才能努力去做!!虽然前期的5年计划也没有如期完成，但是已经有了很好的进展!!一个目标就足够了!!

Praja

5 million GDP is a target, it is a vision statement. Everyone knows it is difficult, but then it is leaders job to provide a vision and direction. It is for the economists job to work on the nut bolts of the economy. Let us chew it bit by bit. Let us get the act of doing it right today, india and Indians will have to do it right. Less politics, more togetherness, more unity, more focus, more work. Forget self, religion, caste, India first. Best wishes

500万GDP是一个目标，是一个愿景宣言。每个人都知道这很困难，但领导者的工作就是指明愿景和方向。经济学家的工作是研究经济的具体细节。让我们一点一点实现吧。今天就开始采取正确的行动，少谈政治，多点团结，多些专注，多做点工作。祝好运。

Sundarv

Looks like he is right. In fact, we can forget talking about targets now. For the moment, let us take steps for plain revival . Targets can wait.

看来他是对的。事实上，我们现在可以忘记谈论目标。就目前而言，让我们稳扎稳打地向前，实现真正的复兴。目标在前方等着我们。

AJIl

Give your suggestions rather than ranting

给出你的建议，不要只会瞎逼逼。

True Nation

One should always repose faith on Fekunomics!

每个人都应该对莫迪抱有信心!

 外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/modi-govts-usd-5-trillion-gdp-target-by-2024-looks-unimaginably-ambitious/articleshow/73212751.cms

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