View: What this Budget can offer to fix India's unemployment problem

观点：这份预算能为印度的失业问题提供什么解决之道

India’s employment situation is bad. The current unemployment rate is the highest in the last 45 years. The unemployment among urban youth (age 15-29 years) is alarmingly high at 22.5 per cent. The high unemployment rates is but just one of the problems with India’s employment scenario. The labour force participation rate has come down to 46.5 per cent for those who are 15 years and above. A large proportion of the employed workers get low wage and are stuck in ‘employed poverty’ trap.

印度的就业形势很糟糕。目前的失业率是过去45年来最高的。城市青年(15至29岁)的失业率高得惊人，高达22.5%。高失业率只是印度就业前景中的问题之一。15岁及以上人士的劳动人口参与率已降至46.5%。很大一部分被雇佣的工人工资很低，陷入了“就业贫困”的陷阱。

While structural factors are responsible for the high unemployment rate, the current slowdown has made things worse. There is enough evidence to show that the economic slowdown is a result of the decline in demand (investment and consumption). Aggregate investment has fallen below 30 per cent of the GDP, a rate much lower than the 15-year average of 35 %. More recently, private consumption has also declined. Unsurprisingly, capacity utilisation in the private sector is down to 70%.

虽然结构性因素是造成高失业率的原因，但当前的经济放缓使情况变得更糟。有足够的证据表明，经济放缓是需求(投资和消费)下降的结果。总投资占GDP的比例已降至30%以下，远低于35 %的15年平均水平。最近，私人消费也在下降。私营部门的产能利用率下降到了70%。

Therefore, as a first thing, the budget should focus on reviving demand. Rural India — especially the small and marginal farmers, the landless labour — spends most of its income on a wide range of goods and services. So, an increase in disbursements through PM-KISAN and MNREGA can provide much needed boost to demand. In the medium term, rural unemployment can be reduced through enhanced government spending on irrigation, rural roads, cold storage, and logistical chains crucial for integrating farms with mandis. These facilities along with an extensive crop insurance can drastically raise agricultural productivity and income.

因此，首先，预算应该把重点放在恢复需求上。印度农村——尤其是那些小型边缘农户，没有土地的劳动力——把大部分收入花在各种各样的商品和服务上。因此，通过农民补贴方案和国家农村就业担保法案增加支付可以提供急需的需求刺激。从中期来看，政府可以通过灌溉、农村道路、冷藏和物流链方面的新增支出来降低农村的失业率，而这些都是农场与农场整合的关键。这些设施加上广泛的农作物保险可以大大提高农业生产率和收入。

Another major reason behind the unemployment situation is GST-caused distress among small and medium enterprises (SMEs) who employ more than 11 crore people. GST has generated inverted duty structure (IDS) for many products whereby the tax on raw materials is higher than on the finished product. Such an imbalance reduces competitiveness of SMEs and increases cost of capital for them. Annually, around Rs 20,000 crore gets stuck with the government in the form of input tax credit. The tax has raised the cost of doing business for SMEs that act as agents of other businesses. In addition, GST on exports of intermediary services reduces their competitiveness. These anomalies in GST need to be addressed without delay.

造成失业状况的另一个主要原因是商品服务税(GST)造成了中小企业的困境，这些企业雇佣了超过1100万员工。GST对许多产品产生了倒置的税收结构(IDS)，原材料的税收高于成品。这种不平衡降低了中小企业的竞争力，增加了中小企业的资本成本。该税提高了中小企业作为其他企业代理的经营成本。此外，对中间服务出口的GST降低了它们的竞争力。必须毫不拖延地处理商品及服务税的这些异常情况。

Decline in construction and related activities in urban areas is a serious concern. These activities employ more than 5 crore people. The budget should aim to revive construction activities in real estate and infrastructure sectors. These sectors directly or indirectly support economic activities in another 200 odd sectors.

城市地区建筑和相关活动的减少是一个严重的问题。这些商业活动雇佣了超过5千万人。预算的目标在于重振房地产和基础设施领域的建设活动。这些行业直接或间接支持了其他200多个行业的经济活动。

In this regard, the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) programme is a welcome step. It aims to boost aggregate investment to the tune of 2-2.5 % of GDP by investing Rs 102 lakh crore in infrastructure over next five years. As much as 39 per cent of the funding is expected from the states and another 22% from the private sector.

在这方面，国家基础设施管道计划是一个受欢迎的步骤。它的目标是在未来五年内投资1020万亿卢比用于基础设施建设，从而将总投资提高到GDP的2- 2.5%。预计将有多达39%的资金来自各邦，另有22%来自私营企业。

Unfortunately, many projects are stuck due to various regulatory hurdles, and many others are mired in legal disputes. Regulatory uncertainty makes private investment unnecessarily risky and is the major reason behind non-availability of capital for infrastructure and other projects. The government should realise that for private investment, the regulatory certainty is as important as the cost of capital.

不幸的是，许多项目由于各种监管障碍而陷入困境，还有许多项目陷入法律纠纷。监管的不确定性使得私人投资具有不必要的风险，也是基础设施和其他项目无法获得资金的主要原因。政府应该认识到，对于私人投资而言，监管的确定性与资金成本同样重要。

Another important source of employment is housing projects. Here, too many projects are caught up in disputes — contractual ones between homebuyers and developers, and legal ones between lenders and developers. To make things worse, such disputes are simultaneously taken to multiple authorities — the RERA, NCLT and Consumer courts. Consequently, restructuring and liquidation processes have got delayed.

另一个重要的就业来源是住房项目。有太多的项目陷入了纠纷——购房者和开发商之间的合同纠纷，以及贷款人和开发商之间的法律纠纷。更糟糕的是，这些纠纷同时被提交给多个机构——房地产管理局、印度公司法法庭和消费者法庭。因此，重组和清算程序久拖未决。

Finally, to reap the demographic dividend, there is a need to invest in skilling of the youth. In future most jobs will come from the private sector that prefers candidates with practical skills and work experience. However, a common perception is that it takes a college or university degree to get a good job. This misperception is the result of lack of an adequate and affordable vocational and education training program in the country.

最后，为了获得人口红利，有必要投入资金，对年轻人进行技能培训。未来大多数工作将来自私营企业，私营企业更青睐有实际技能和工作经验的求职者。然而，人们普遍认为只有大学学位才能找到好工作。这种误解是该国缺乏足够和负担得起的职业和教育培训计划的结果。

In the interim, the government should fill the large number of vacant posts. Estimates suggest that there are more than 22 lakh vacancies in government departments. The country can ill-afford this neglect at a time when the unemployment rates remain very high.

在此期间，政府应填补大量空缺员额。据估计，政府部门有220多万个职位空缺。在失业率居高不下的情况下，这个国家不该忽视这一空缺。

以下是《印度经济时报》网友评论： 

译文来源：三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/49255.html    译者：Joyceliu 

Bikash Gupta

If by any chance, Purchase Power of Farmers of India can be Enhanced, by creating a Full Proof Agricultural Marketing Infrastructure, then Jobs for Millions can be created in Rural India .

如果通过建立完整的农业营销基础设施，提高印度农民的购买力，那么印度农村就可以创造数百万个就业机会。

Sri Rama Sarma Yadavally

All are good suggestions but whether the government has really the resources to undertake these measures with the fiscal deficit targets and other concomitant constraints.

这些都是不错的建议，但政府是否真的有足够的资源来实施这些措施，实现财政赤字目标和其它伴随而来的制约。

Ravie Gupta

i failed to understand if there is real unemployment or not. government data states otherwise, creation of 20 lacs jobs in one month. there might be normal unemployment only.

我不明白是否存在真正的失业。政府数据显示，在一个月内创造了200万个就业机会。失业情况可能是正常水平。

Kavi Tanna

There is no solution to this except for Indians making new companies. India cannot compete against , Korea and Japan and it does not have leading edge in IT like U.S. does. Therefore govt can't do anything really.

除了印度人创办新公司外，没有其他解决办法。印度无法与、韩国和日本竞争，也不像美国那样拥有领先优势。所以政府什么都做不了。

Raj Tillan

Main issue is not skills but hard work looking for free quick fixes and miracles.

主要的问题不在于技能，而是努力寻找免费的快速解决方案和奇迹。

Kishore Shivani

COMPULSORY POPULATION CONTROL LIKE CHINA MAINLY OF THOSE WHO BREED LIKE COCKROACHES AND TERMITES THESE PEOPLE IF HAVE MORE THAN TWO CHILDREN THEN NO SUBSIDIES AND FREEBIES AND DOLES AND ALMS OF ANY TYPE FOR THEM..

要像那样进行强制的人口控制，这些像蟑螂、白蚁一样疯狂繁殖的人如果有两个以上的孩子，就不能享受任何补贴和任何形式的施舍。

Rajesh Dharia

population control best way to boost employment

控制人口是促进就业的最佳途径

Rajesh Dharia

anti modi media hype only

这只是反莫迪的媒体炒作

Nilamkumar Buch

Import from by on line sell is hurting Indian manufacturers and traders. Automated manufacturing plants and import of food items are adding problems. UPA and NDA both failed to generate employment. There is no strategy in place to reverse the trend.

网上销售从进口的商品伤害了印度的制造商和贸易商。自动化制造工厂和食品进口也在制造问题。团结进步联盟和全国皿煮联盟都未能创造就业。目前还没有扭转这一趋势的策略。

Ban Bollywood Movies

All jobs are being automated away. Poor are still producing growing population... From where will Modiji provide jobs to all. Better 1. control population of the poor. 2. Provide basic housing for all. 3. Stabilize cost of other things like food, clothings medical treatments etc. This will improve the situation.

所有的工作都被自动化取代了。贫困人口仍在增长…莫迪要怎么为所有人提供工作？我们最好要：1、控制贫困人口。2、为所有人提供基本住房。3、稳定食品、衣物、医疗等其他物品的价格。这有助于改善情况。

Ramesh Shah

DON'T EXPECT WONDERS FROM THIS BUDGET...... THEY ARE ABLE. TO MANAGE THEIR COFFERS HOW CAN THEY HELP JOBLESSNESS......POOR YOUNG DREGREE HOLDERS STUDENTS RUN FROM CORNER TO. CORNER BEGGING JOBS......

别指望这个预算能带来奇迹。他们有能力管理他们的金库，他们要如何帮助失业者……一贫如洗的大学生四处碰壁，乞求工作……

Ashwani Kumar

Unemployment is becoming a big issue which needs to addressed seriously.

失业正成为一个需要认真对待的大问题。

Realdeshbhakt

you seem to think military men have impeccable morals and ethics.These are very corrupt and violent men in uniform.Giving control of our children to them will be dangerous

你似乎认为军人的道德和伦理是无懈可击的。事实上这些都是非常腐败和暴力的军人。把孩子交给他们管理是非常危险的。

Patel

Investors can be rewarded in terms of money, opportunity and time. Investors would be interested if they can make money immediately, or they have opportunity to make money is some reasonable time or if they are allowed to pay back after a considerable time. I think we should explore all these dimensions.

投资者可以获得金钱、机会和时间方面的回报。如果他们能立即赚钱，或者他们有机会在合理的时间赚钱，或者他们被允许在一段相当长的时间后偿还，投资者就会感兴趣的。我认为我们在这些方面进行研究。

Srinu Gedela

I would also sincerely request the Union Budget to focus on constructing More Judicial Courts to address the common people's problems. I hope this could bring peace to many people's lives. Separate Courts to Civil & Traffic, Criminal and Corporate courts access to people.

我衷心地请求联邦预算还要把重点放在建设更多的司法法庭上，解决普通民众的问题。我希望这能给许多人的生活带来和平。将民事法庭与交通法庭，刑事法庭与公司法庭、人民法庭分离开来。

Realdeshbhakt

shutting down courts might work even better. Judges and lawyers are in this to earn huge bribes from indians. except criminal cases, nothing more is required in india.

关闭法院可能会更好。法官和律师的目的是从印度人民手中获取巨额贿赂。除了刑事案件，印度不需要更多法律。

Krishnaa Moorthy

Dear Ram Singh,The ideas presented here is very good, I would like to get the opinion of top 20 economists on your article and the consolidated one should be presented to the Finance Ministry.Regards,

亲爱的Ram Singh，你提出的想法很好，我想听听前20名经济学家对你文章的看法，应该将整理后的报告提交给财政部。

Shrinivasa Kamath

Pay Commission must have recommended to cut down government staff and improve efficiency of working. The vacancies of some 22 lakhs exsting now should not be the result such action.

薪酬委员会必须建议削减政府工作人员，提高工作效率。目前约220万的空缺不应是这种行动的结果。

Sunder Swami

The government should simply close itself down. Indians will automatically create jobs to suit themselves. It is the government interference that is the problem.

政府应该自己关门大吉。印度人会自动创造适合自己的工作。问题就出在政府干扰上。

Siddharth Pareek

Govt should focus on improving the job sector on a priority basis. unemployment is the biggest concern right now.

政府应该优先改善就业领域。失业是目前最令人担忧的问题。

Hemant Pisat

The intent & spirit of the author is genuine to the ultimate scales. However, the authorities involved need evaluation and introspection.The budget document is all ready to be declared on 31st Jan or 1st Feb; which will decide the fate of Indians to live or live happily ever after. Sometimes it is difficult to understand how these intellectuals decide for the entire nation which is hungry for wellbeing not just materially but also a peaceful life. When is that possible India?

作者的意图和精神是最为诚恳的。然而，有关当局需要评估和反省。预算文件已准备好，1月31日或2月1日可以申报；这将决定印度人的命运，从此过上幸福的生活。有时很难理解这些知识分子是如何为整个国家做决策的，这个国家不仅渴望物质上的幸福，而且渴望和平的生活。印度什么时候才有可能实现?

Ravindra Munvar

He has talked about GST having inverted duty structure. I would disagree. The way GST was structured was to have the same duty / tax as exsting.

他谈到商品及服务税的税制颠倒了。我不同意这个说法。商品及服务税的税制是与现行税项相同。

Keshav Shenoy

regulate imports. import only whatever we cannot manufacture. this will increase local production and more people will get jobs. Cheap imports are killing local industries. It will be very sad if youth do not get jobs, they will easily get disappointed, so do something on immediate basis to give more employment

规范进口。只能进口我们自己无法制造的东西。这能增加当地的产量，让更多的人得到工作。廉价的进口商品正在扼杀当地的工业。如果年轻人找不到工作，他们会很伤心，他们很容易失望，所以立刻采取措施，提供更多的就业机会吧。

Aditya Sinha

Rather focus should be export promotion. If we are competitive in export imports will go down automatically.

重点应该放在促进出口上。如果我们在出口方面有竞争力，进口就会自动减少。

 外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/view-what-the-budget-can-offer-to-fix-indias-unemployment-problem/articleshow/73574707.cms