Could India be the next coronavirus hotspot with an 'avalanche' of cases?

印度会成为下一个冠状病毒高发地区吗？

India could become the next global hotspot for virus cases, with experts warning containment measures that proved successful elsewhere in Asia may not work in the world’s second-most populous country.

印度可能成为下一个全球病毒感染热点，专家警告称，在亚洲其它地区行之有效的控制措施，在这个世界第二大人口大国可能无法奏效。

The South Asian nation, which has so far reported 126 infections and three deaths, is trying to contain the virus by closing its borders, testing incoming travellers and contact tracing from those who tested positive.

这个南亚国家目前已报告有126人感染，3人死亡。该国正试图通过关闭边境、对入境旅客进行检测以及追踪那些检测呈阳性的人的密切接触者，来遏制这种病毒的传播。

But some experts in the nation of 1.3 billion people say that won’t be enough to contain the spread. Other measures like widespread testing and social distancing may be infeasible in cities with a high population density and rickety health infrastructure.

但一些专家表示，在这个拥有13亿人口的国家，这些措施不足以遏制疫情的蔓延。在人口密度高、卫生基础设施薄弱的城市，广泛的检测和安全距离等其他措施可能是无法实行的。

While growth in total numbers has been slow until now, “the number will be 10 times higher” by April 15, said Dr. T. Jacob John, the former head of the Indian Council for Medical Research’s Centre for Advanced Research in Virology, a government-funded institution.

印度医学研究委员会病毒学高级研究中心前主任T·雅各布·约翰博士表示，虽然到目前为止，患者总数增长缓慢，但到4月15日，“这个数字将增长10倍”。该中心是一家政府资助的机构。

“They are not understanding that this is an avalanche,” said John, who was also chairman of the Indian Government Expert Advisory Group on Polio Eradication and chief of the National HIV/AIDS Reference Centre at the Christian Medical College in Vellore. “As every week passes, the avalanche is growing bigger and bigger.”

“他们还不明白，这是一场雪崩，”约翰说，他同时也是印度政府根除脊髓灰质炎专家咨询小组的主席和Vellore基督教医学院国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病参考中心的主任。“随着时间一天天过去，雪崩将越来越严重。”

Financial Capital

金融资本

So far India has been relatively unscathed by the virus compared with other countries in Asia.

到目前为止，与亚洲其他国家相比，印度没有受到太大影响。

And Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said the South Asian nation is doing it’s best to fight the spread of the virus.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪表示，这个南亚国家正在尽最大努力遏制病毒的传播。

A key concern in India is Maharashtra, the state with the highest urbanization in India and home to the financial capital Mumbai and benchmark stock exchange. It’s reported the biggest spread of the infection with 39 cases. Its government has called for a virtual lockdown of cities on Monday — shuttering all public places, putting off university exams and asking government offices and private companies to ensure at least half their staff work from home.

印度的关键点是马哈拉施特拉邦，这个邦是印度城市化程度最高的邦，也是金融中心孟买和基准证券交易所的所在地。据报道，这里的感染人数最多，达39例。周一，印度政府已要求各城市实行全面禁闭——关闭所有公共场所，推迟大学考试，并要求政府部门和私营企业确保至少一半的员工在家办公。

“Maharashtra is in the second stage at the moment,” Rajesh Tope, Maharashtra’s health minister told reporters in Mumbai. “But if we don’t curtail or stop the infection from spreading this contagious disease we could slip to stage three and that would mean a spike in the number of infections,” he said. “We have to contain this disease under any circumstances.”

“马哈拉施特拉邦目前处于第二阶段，”马哈拉施特拉邦卫生部长拉杰什·托普在孟买告诉记者。他说:“但是，如果我们不遏制或阻止这种传染病的蔓延，我们可能会跌入第三阶段，那将意味着感染人数的激增。在任何情况下，我们都必须控制这种疾病。”

Population Density

人口密度

Apart from its sheer size, India’s other challenge is the density of its population: 420 people live on each square kilometer (about 0.4 of a square mile), compared with 148 per square kilometer in . Its cities are crammed with slums and low-income housing clusters where the living conditions are tight.

除了规模之外，印度面临的另一个挑战是人口密度：每平方公里住420人(约每平方英里0.4人)，而每平方公里为148人。印度的城市里充斥着贫民窟和低收入的住房群，生活条件很紧张。

While South Korea was able to test even asymptomatic people, India’s population “makes it extremely difficult,” said Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, adjunct professor of epidemiology at the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University and president of the New Delhi-based health think-tank Public Health Foundation of India.

哈佛大学陈氏公共卫生学院流行病学副教授、新德里卫生智库印度公共卫生基金会主席K·斯里纳特·雷迪博士说，尽管韩国能够检测出无症状人群，但印度的人口“让检测变得极其困难”。

“Social distancing is something often talked about but only works well for the urban middle class,” he added. “It doesn’t work well for the urban poor or the rural population where its extremely difficult both in terms of compactly packed houses, but also because many of them have to go to work in areas which are not necessarily suitable for social distancing.”

他补充道：“社交距离是人们经常谈论的话题，但只适用于城市中产阶级。这对城市贫困人口和农村人口来说并不适用，因为他们的住房非常拥挤，而且很多人不得不去不太符合安全距离的地方工作。”

India on Tuesday announced that state-authorized private laboratories would be allowed to conduct tests. But the government has yet to release the list of authorized labs, according to Dr Lokesh Kumar Sharma, spokesman for the Indian Council of Medical Research said.

印度周二宣布，国家授权的私人实验室将被允许进行病毒测试。但印度医学研究委员会发言人Lokesh Kumar Sharma博士表示，政府尚未公布授权实验室的名单。

Surging Infections

飙升的感染人数

The pandemic, which has infected over 1,82,000 worldwide, with deaths top 7000, has a pattern of surging after an initial slower phase. This was seen in nations such as South Korea and Italy -- the worst-affected countries outside of mainland .

目前全球已有超过182000人感染，死亡人数超过7000人，在经过最初的较慢阶段后出现了激增的模式。韩国和意大利等国就出现了这种情况，它们是大陆以外受影响最严重的国家。

South Korea, which had a 2,000% jump in cases in a week last month, slowed the outbreak and deaths by testing hundreds of thousands of people in clinics and drive-through stations.

韩国在上个月的一个星期里，新增病例增加了2000%。韩国通过在诊所和汽车餐厅对数十万人进行检测，延缓了疫情的爆发和死亡。

More than 5,200 potential cases have been identified through contact-tracing and put under surveillance in India, the health ministry said late Monday. Last week it suspended most visas and decided on Friday to limit international traffic through land crossings.

印度卫生部周一晚间表示，已经通过接触者追踪确定了超过5200例潜在病例，并对其进行了监控。上周，印度暂停了大部分签证，并于周五决定限制通过陆路口岸的国际交通。

The country’s response to the coronavirus spread is driven by the limitations of its public health system, Reddy said. India’s health-care spending is among the lowest in the world -- just 3.7% of gross domestic product. That’s left it with a patchwork of overcrowded public hospitals, and private ones that are unaffordable for many people.

雷迪说，该国应对冠状病毒传播的措施受到其公共卫生系统的限制。印度的医疗支出是世界上最低的国家之一，仅占国内生产总值的3.7%。剩下的就是拥挤不堪的公立医院和许多人负担不起的私立医院。

“I have reservations about our capacities to deal with this,” said Reddy. “Right now our responses are strategic to the extent that our resources permit.”

雷迪说:“我对我们处理此事的能力持保留态度。目前，在我们的资源允许的范围内，我们的应对措施是战略性的。”

以下是《印度经济时报》网站读者评论：

译文来源：三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/49536.html     译者：Joyceliu

Shilpy

the western saying "apple a day keeps the doctor away" can not work for the hindu people of india in this case. actually, it can not work for the white people either. you are going to need much more than an apple a day.

在这种情况下，西方的谚语“一天一苹果，医生远离我”对印度的印度教徒不起作用。实际上，这对白人也没用。你需要的远远不止一天一个苹果。

Abhishek Ladkani

More Indians die in accidents everyday than corona virus daily toll. That didn't made them cautious how can a virus scare them.These articles cause more panic than finding solutions, another foreign media backed article to downplay good job Indian government has done so far

每天死于事故的印度人远多于死于冠状病毒的人。这并没有让他们谨慎对待病毒，如何能吓到他们。这些文章比寻找解决方案更令人恐慌，另一家外国媒体支持的文章淡化了印度政府迄今所完成的出色工作。

N Selva Muthu Kumaran

well said...but deliberate ignorance from most Indians should not create havoc.... though Govt is doing all its best to contain... People have to cooperate......

说得好…但是大多数印度人的无知不应该造成大破坏…尽管政府正尽其所能来遏制疫情…人们必须合作……

Prudent Indian

India will not be able to handle this epidemic if it explodes. So it is imperative that all group activities, be it educational institutions be it colleges or schools or organizations across the country needs to shut down temporarily till 31March so that there is no community spreading of the virus. At present Govts of most states have restricted group activities by closing down gyms. Weddings, etc. However more needs to be done to close other possible areas so that the spread is stemmed at the initial stages.

如果疫情爆发，印度将无法应对。因此，当务之急是直到3月31日，所有的团体活动，无论是教育机构，还是全国各地的大学、学校或组织等，都需要暂时关闭，这样病毒才不会在社区大肆传播。目前，大多数州的政府通过关闭体育馆来限制团体活动、婚礼等。然而，还需要做更多的努力来关闭其他可能的区域，以便在最初阶段就遏制住传播速度。

Varadharajan Balasubramanian

the spread of this virus is through crowding. Staying indoors with children is difficult. Further only people go out they can earn. these factors will weigh more in the coming days.

这种病毒是通过聚集的人群传播的。和孩子呆在家里很困难。此外，人们只有出门，才能赚钱。这些因素在未来几天将更加重要。

Jagdip Vaishnav

What is noticed our Health care system has not considered population of India, Poverty in INDIA

我们的医疗保健系统没有考虑到印度的人口规模，印度的贫困事实。

Shilpy

eating meat or eggs should be banned at least until april 15th if not for ever.

即使不能永远禁止，至少也要在4月15日前禁止食用肉类或鸡蛋。

Shilpy

of course, the above has to be done in addition to the customary recommended behavioral precautions already in place - like hand washing, kee "social distance" etc. don't mean to mislead or any such stuff. one of the remedies indicated in the use of quinine based medication - something obtainable from ayurveda sources if you consult a good practitioner.

当然，以上这些都是基于已经存在的习惯行为预防措施的基础上的——比如洗手，保持“安全距离”等等——并不是要误导别人或做任何类似的事情。使用奎宁类药物的一种治疗方法-如果你咨询好医生就知道，这是从阿育吠陀来的。

Bhargav Jagannath

Indian medical system has been like an army ever engaged with an enemy, so ever combat ready. I think other nations medical system lacks that. Although they are strong but were caught unaware by the enemy even though they may be technologically superior. Remember wars are not won through weapons, they are won through courage which comes only through readiness. And India is Eveready.

印度的医疗系统就像一支与敌人交战的军队，随时准备战斗。我认为其他国家的医疗系统缺乏这一点。虽然他们很强大，但是被敌人发现了薄弱点，即使他们可能拥有技术优势。记住，战争不是靠武器赢得的，战争是靠勇气赢得的，而只有做好准备才能获得勇气。印度已经准备好了。

Khagaraj Sommu

“ Could “ is so useful for these subjective speculations that often remind you of astrological predictions of the same kind !

“可能”这个词对于这些经常让你联想到占星术预测的主观推测真是太好用了！！

Spaceman

India is a holy land of many Gods and religions...nothing will happen...be cool.

印度是一个拥有众多神灵和宗教的圣地…什么都不会发生的……淡定点。

Narayanan Hemamalini

A wonderful piece by kindergarten journalists.

哇哦，这真是幼儿园记者写的精彩文章。

Khagaraj Sommu

They are from Doomberg, no less !

彭博社的文章，真是一如既往的烂呐！

Selvi S

Will maintain the did and don'ts provided by WHO. Mostly every one is adhering all the norms. Will wait and see that how we are protecting ourselves from this virud.

遵循世卫组织的“能做”和“不能做”的提醒。基本上每个人都遵守这些规范。看看我们是如何保护自己免受病毒攻击的吧。

Rrpatki Patki

This article is long text for little content. This such a senior person why scaring others without giving logic analysis and solution. No use of his seniority rather it's detrimental to society

这篇文章篇幅长，内容少。这样一个资深的人为什么要吓唬别人，而且给不出逻辑分析和解决方案。他的资历没有用，反而对社会有害。

Shree Dhar

Exactly. We have unbridled freedom and very BIG Ego.

完全正确。我们有无拘无束的自由和非常大的自我。

Khagaraj Sommu

in comparison are so humble

相比之下，是如此的谦逊。

Jadhav

good that corona virus has no any religion and nationality. other wise this viruses would have kept fighting among themselves and perished. this virus must be stopped at border itself.

很好，冠状病毒没有宗教和国籍的界限。否则的话，这些病毒之间会不断地内斗，直至灭亡。这种病毒必须被消灭在边境上。

Ramakrishnaiah

International traveller must be banned immediately

必须立即禁止国际旅客入境。

Srinivas

The one & only one solution BE INDIAN, BUY INDIAN!

唯一的解决办法是做印度人，买印度货!

Gopal Rao

ban all international arrivals for one month, India will be safe , those are the carriers of virus into the nation

禁止所有国际旅客入境一个月，印度就安全了，这些人是病毒携带者。

Raaj

virus will have marginal efect on Indian population .. it affects super senior senior citizens( persons) so young population is comparatively safe

病毒对印度人的影响不大。它主要影响的是超高龄民众，所以年轻人是相对安全的。

Umesh Yadav

Can someone booked this writer for spreading panic among people...? Even at a time when the whole world is fighting against virus impact...People needs to behave maturely...I feel most people scared of death if test positive...Their willingness to fight reduces...So people needs to spread awareness and positivity...Rather than creating panic...

能不能来个人把这位作者在人群中散布恐慌的事报告一下？在这个全世界都在抗击病毒冲击的时候……人们需要表现得成熟理智一些……我觉得如果检测呈阳性，大多数人都怕死…他们战斗的意愿降低了……所以人们需要传播意识和积极性……而不是制造恐慌…

Anjan Bhattacharjee

Government must review penal provision in IPC to curb spreading fear and rumor mongering by media immediately.These are being paid for by hostile neighbors and united kingdom for last few years spearheaded by BBC/Reuter/Guardian on daily basis.

政府必须检讨信息部的刑罚规定，以遏止媒体散播恐惧和谣言。这些都是敌对邻国和英国雇佣的水军，在过去的几年里，BBC/路透社/卫报每天都在带头恶搞。

Devidas Telakat

Why is this desire to see India in a bad light?

为什么要诅咒印度？

Jay Boro

The scary thing is this virus is highly contagious unlike other viruses. once it spreads like 1000, it will divide like insane

可怕的是，这种病毒与其他病毒不同，传染性很强。一旦扩散到1000人，它就会疯狂地分裂...

Raj

We are trying to bolt the door after the Virus has come inside the house. people are abusing Bloomberg. They should question Govt for not acting in time. Large scale Disater is the making of this Govt sadly.

我们正设法在病毒进入房子后把门锁上。人们正在批判彭博。他们应该质疑的是印度政府为何没有及时采取行动。可悲的是，正是这个政府造成了大规模的灾难。

Bhaedtn

you are just may be blind and may be deaf. Govt has taken unprecedented measures to contain the virus spread and with such huge large number of population and we are just at 100s cases compared to other nations. Learn to praise the good of govt, don't keep criticising the govt all the time. Else you become someday mad.

你可能是个瞎子或者聋子。政府采取了前所未有的措施来控制病毒的传播，印度的人口如此庞大，但与其他国家相比，我们只有区区100个病例。要学着赞美印度政府的优点，不要总是批评。否则有一天你会发疯。

Raj

Govt should have acted 6 weeks earlier. They should have worked with & other International agencies 6 weeks ago rather than mocking .

印度政府应该在6周前就采取行动。他们应该在6周前与和其他国际机构合作，而不是嘲笑。

Vikas Baliyan

Bloomberg is known for its anti India stand, kindly avoid such one-sided articles which are written to spread panic

彭博社因为其反印度立场而闻名

Someshwar N

India being a God fearing country where majority of people worship their different religious Gods, it is hoped that the all the Gods will kindly spare the citizens from onslaught of Covid-19.

印度是一个敬畏神明的国家，大多数人崇拜不同的宗教神，希望所有的神都能仁慈地让公民免受covid19的攻击。

Raghavan Theerthagiri

1. Will they swallow their words in case we do a much better job in containment than CHina, Italy or the US, which seems 100% likely right now given we still have only about 130 odd cases

全都是狗屎。如果我们在遏制疫情方面做得比、意大利或美国好得多，他们会收回自己的话吗？考虑到我们目前只有大约130个病例，我们肯定能做得更好的

 外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/could-india-be-the-next-coronavirus-hotspot-with-an-avalanche-of-cases/articleshow/74670428.cms

继续阅读：疫情   新冠病毒

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