若未实施封城，到4月15日印度或有82万人确诊

Without lockdown, virus could have affected 8.2 lakh by April 15: Analysis

若未实施封城，到4月15日印度或有82万人确诊

NEW DELHI: A day after it said that there was no such ICMR study, the health ministry said on Saturday that there was a “statistical rate of growth-based analysis” that without a lockdown and containment measures, Covid-19 cases could be projected to spiral to 8.2 lakh by April 15, registering a 41% cumulative growth rate.

新德里：周六，印度卫生部表示，根据ICMR一项“基于病例增速的统计分析”，若不采取封城和遏制措施，到4月15日，印度的确诊病例预计将上升至82万。一天前，印度卫生部否认了ICMR的研究。

Though the health ministry had on Friday denied reports about an ICMR study that the ministry of external affairs had referred to in a briefing to foreign media, it clarified that the chart was a statistical analysis. However, it maintained that it was not a report or a study. The projection, explained by Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry, takes into account containment measures alone, without implementation of the lockdown.

尽管印度卫生部在周五否认了外交部在向外国媒体发布简报时提到的有关ICMR研究的报道，澄清说，这是一项统计分析。然而，印度卫生部坚称这不是一份报告，不是一项研究。卫生部联合秘书拉夫·阿加瓦尔解释说，这项预测只考虑了遏制措施，而没有将封城考虑在内。

The statistical analysis also calculated that in a scenario without a lockdown, a total of 1.2 lakh positive cases could have been reported by April 15 if the peak growth rate of the disease at 28.9%, seen before the lockdown was initiated, had sustained. At these rates, as of April 11, the cases could have been 2 lakh with just a lockdown and around 44,000 with only containment measures, in kee with the two projections.

该统计分析还计算出，在没有封城的情况下，如果按在封城前达到的28.9%的病例增速峰值持续下去，到4月15日，确诊病例可能达到12万例。在仅采取封城措施的情况下，按照这样的增度，截至4月11日，确诊病例可能达到20万例，在仅采取遏制措施的情况下，病例可能达到4.4万例左右。

Agarwal’s comments were a partial walkback on the ministry’s position on Friday. The government said that it was a statistical exercise.

阿加瓦尔的言论在一定程度上反驳了印度外交部周五阐述的立场。政府表示，这是一项统计预测。

In the current situation, after the implementation of the lockdown as well as stringent containment measures, India is witnessing a significantly lower number of positive cases at 7,447 as of Saturday, Agarwal said highlighting the importance of the measures and social distancing.

阿加瓦尔说，在目前实施了封城和严格遏制措施的情况下，截至周六，印度的确诊病例数量显著下降，为7447例。他强调了这些措施和保持社交距离的重要性。

“India’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has always been pre-emptive and proactive to the extent of being overprepared. We have taken a graded approach depending on the situation,” Agarwal said.

他说:“印度在应对疫情时一直是先发制人，甚至到了反应过度的程度。我们已经根据情况采取了渐进的方法。”

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49686.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

Silip Sahoo

Absolutely correct, india is a densely populated country and if lock down had not been imposed,it would have worse condition now

没错，印度是一个人口密集的国家，如果没有封城，现在的情况会更糟

Vijay Kumar

For all critics, I want to suggest to watch any news channel with international news on Coronavirus and try to understand the reason behind the worse condition of Italy, America, Spain, France etc. Then write some comments here

建议那些一味批评的人看看播报新冠疫情的国际新闻频道，去了解一下意大利、美国、西班牙、法国等国疫情更糟的原因。然后再发表评论。

Mark

Balant lies created to mislead people. You've hardly done any test it has already affected millions of people. How many silent deaths are happening around no one has bothered as people are busy clap hands and burning fireworks

为了误导人们而撒谎。印度几乎没有做什么检测啊，已经有数百万人感染了。当人们忙着鼓掌、放烟花爆竹庆祝时，周围有多少人在悄无声息地死去啊

Kinnu

Where do you get such baseless numbers from.

你的数据毫无根据，从哪来的?

Remesh Nair

our PM Narendra modi is protecting Indians like a Giant wall .....

我们的莫迪总理像巨人一样在保护着印度人民…

Election Beast

If there was action in Jan we would habe zero cases..

如果印度从一月份开始采取行动，就不会有人感染了。

John D

The Coronavirus death rate for 80 years olds is 14.8%. Patients ages 70 to 79 years have a death rate of 8% and those ages 60 to 69 have a death rate of 3.6%. (Younger age groups have lower death rates; 1.3% for those 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39.)

80岁以上患者的新冠肺炎病死率为14.8%。70 - 79岁患者的病死率为8%，60 - 69岁患者的病死率为3.6%。

较年轻年龄组的死亡率较低：50-59岁人群的病死率为1.3%;

40-49岁人群的病死率为0.4%;

10-39岁人群的病死率仅为0.2%。

Rao Gorru

Yes it is a correct statement that without lockdown virus could have affected 8.2lakh

没错，如果没封城，印度可能有82万人感染了

RAHUL KUMAR

What will happen after lockdown, virus will die??

封城了又怎样，病毒会消失吗?

mushtaq Qadri

All people across board need to cooperate in enforcing lockdown

所有人都应该配合封城措施

Harman sidhu

Bravo India. Hail Mr Modi. This is World Statesmanship.

印度万岁，莫迪万岁。莫迪具备世界领袖的风范啊，

Nitin Rao Chandavar

After the lockdown is removed, this figure will reach the estimated one's if the authorities so not sanitize the cities as done in other countries for killing the viruses.

解除封锁后，如果印度不像其他国家那样在城市进行消杀，确诊病例还是会达到这个预测的数字的。

Subba Iyer Mani

Excellent work by the govt to arrest the spread of the virus.

在控制病毒传播方面，印度政府做得很好。

Akshat Parmar

Preventive measure have been taken at right time by govt

印度政府适时采取了预防措施

Shrinivas Kadabagere

Absolutely there would've been more than millions infected if lockdown was imposed

封城后，感染人数肯定会超过数百万

Kuldeep Singh

True, but lockdown alone will not help. We need to increase speed of testing. We are not doing testing as aggressively as other nations and then only we will come to know real state of affairs. For instance, even if we do statewide comparison within india, while Maharashtra and kerala reporting high numbers since they are doing testing at higher frequency while orissa, West bengal, bihar doing at a very slow pace and hence they are reporting surprisingly low numbers.

没错，但是仅仅封城是没用的。我们需要提高检测速度。印度不像其他国家那样积极进行检测，只有经过检测才能了解真实的情况。

马哈拉施特拉邦和喀拉拉邦报告的病例数很高，因为他们的检测频率更高，

而奥里萨邦、西孟加拉邦和比哈尔邦的检测速度非常慢，因此他们报告的病例数低得惊人。

iwish

All are making good efforts. Let's continue with that.

所有人都在努力控制疫情，再接再厉吧。

User nani

Salute to all the doctors nurses sanitary workers police media and many others for doing

向所有医生、护士、卫生工作者、警察、媒体等致敬

Ugandhar S

It's absolutely true, without lock down the situation is worse.

没错，没封城的话，情况会更糟。

Prashanth

What a joke! India wouldn’t have even tested half that number by April 15.

笑话!

到4月15日，印度的检测人数都达不到这个数字（82万）的一半。

Orhan Noor

Its not even started, take credit when it is over, lovings in fools world?

疫情还没控制住呢，就开始邀功了？

Parthasarathi DasGupta

No one can definitely predict ! It's statistics, not a clear mathematics. Now please inform us whether the virus will die after 15 days ? That's is simply impossible. If the virus continue spreading like this then after 15 days whether it will be extended by another 15 days ? Where is the end ? The negative effect of lockdown will be felt only after the lockdown is over. It's the poor who are going to suffer.

没有人可以作出准确预测!

这是统计分析，不是精确计算。现在请告知我们，病毒是否会在15天后消失?

肯定是不可能的。

如果病毒继续以这种方式传播，那么封城延长15天后是否会再延长15天?

什么时候结束?

封城的负面影响只有在结束后才能感受到。受苦的还是穷人啊。

Venkatesh Babu KR

Whoever takes credit, but Modi and his blind bhakts have to pay for this mess.

不管谁来邀功，莫迪及其盲目追随者必须为这种混乱付出代价。

Manish Sardana

Lockdown was essential. Delhi allowed jamat during virus time, ignoring all safety norms.

封城是至关重要的。在疫情期间，德里允许塔布里·扎马特成员举办集会，无视安全规范。