India GDP projections by World Bank, IMF too optimistic: Ex-CEA Subramanian

印度前首席经济顾问苏布兰马尼安：世界银行、国际货币基金组织对印度GDP的预测过于乐观

NEW DELHI: Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian on Wednesday said the GDP numbers being projected by the World Bank and IMF for India are far "too optimistic" and the country would require additional expenditure of Rs 10 lakh crore to bring the coronavirus-hit economy back on track.

新德里：周三，前首席经济顾问阿尔温德·苏布兰马尼安表示，世界银行和国际货币基金组织对印度GDP的预测“过于乐观”，印度需要额外支出10万亿卢比才能让遭受新冠疫情打击的经济重回正轨。

As per the World Bank's latest assessment, India is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent during the current fiscal due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdown.

根据世界银行的最新评估，由于受到新冠疫情的影响，以及随后的封锁影响，当前财年印度的经济增速预计为1.5%-2.8%。

Similarly, the IMF on Tuesday projected a GDP growth of 1.9 per cent for India in 2020, as the global economy hits the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

同样，国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二预测，随着全球经济遭遇上世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的衰退，印度2020年的GDP增长率预计为1.9%。

With these subdued projections, India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation of the economy.

根据这些不那么乐观的预测，印度或将出现自1991年经济自由化以来最糟糕的增长表现。

"The number given by the World Bank and IMF in terms of the changes are way too optimistic because even if we lose one month's output, we are talking about pretty negative rate of growth and that is what should determine how we respond," Subramanian said in a webinar organised by economic think-tank NCAER.

苏布兰马尼安在经济智库NCAER组织的网络研讨会上表示：“世界银行和国际货币基金组织的预测太乐观了，即使我们失去一个月的产出，增长率也会变成负的，这将决定我们要如何应对。”

"We are going to experience a sharp collapse in output for one month. We have to spend 2 per cent on medical side which is slightly underestimated... For one month output loss even if we make up one third of output loss by social cushioning or prop up financial system, still it would be 3 per cent of GDP. So the number we came up with Rs 10 lakh crore (Centre and states combined) or 5 per cent of the GDP," he said.

他说：“我们将经历一个月的产出大幅下滑。我们不得不在医疗方面投入2%的资金，这已经略微低估了……至于一个月的产出损失，即使我们通过社会缓冲或支持金融体系弥补三分之一的产出损失，这仍相当于GDP的3%，我们得出的数字是10万亿卢比(中央和各邦加起来)，这相当于GDP的5%。”

Because the economy is going to slow down, revenue collection for this year would be much less than the last year, he said, adding the revenue loss would be 1.5 per cent of the GDP.

他表示，由于经济将放缓，今年的税收收入将远低于去年，他补充称，税收损失将达到GDP的1.5%。

Subramanian recommended five ways of financing additional expenditure over a period of one year, including cutting expenditure and borrowing directly from the RBI or monetizing debt.

苏布兰马尼安建议以五种方式在一年内为额外支出筹措资金，包括削减开支和直接向印度央行借款或将债务货币化。

He said Rs 1-1.5 lakh crore could be mobilised by cutting expenditure, while another Rs 1-1.5 lakh crore could be raised from multilateral institutions and NRIs.

他说，可以通过削减开支筹集1- 15万亿卢比，从多边机构和海外印度裔筹集1- 1.5万亿卢比。

RBI could print about Rs 1.5-2 lakh crore and borrowing through issuance of bonds could be in the range of Rs 4-5 lakh crore, he said.

他说，印度央行可以印钞1.5 - 2万亿卢比，通过发行债券借4- 5万亿卢比。

He also pitched for setting up a 'Solidarity Fund' where the 'haves' will pool in money for supporting the 'have-nots'. This could garner about Rs 1 lakh crore.

他还提出建立一个“团结基金”，让“富人”筹集资金来帮助“穷人”，可以筹集大约1万亿卢比。

"This contribution can take the form of taxes or elimination of middle-class subsidies identified in the Economic Survey of 2016. The wealthy could contribute via a wealth tax with thresholds set by property values say above Rs 5 crore," he said.

“可以通过征税或取消中产阶级补贴的形式来筹集这笔资金。富人可以通过缴纳财产税来作出贡献，根据房产价值，设定起征点在5000万卢比以上。”他说。

Salaried employees in the public and private sectors could contribute via a small, progressive tax on salaries and pensions, he said, adding middle class subsidies that could be eliminated include interest and tax deductions for small savers, favourable taxation of gold and other luxuries.

他说，工薪阶层可以通过缴纳工资和养老金的小额累进税来贡献自己的力量，他补充说，可以取消的中产阶级补贴包括对小储户的利息和税收减免、对黄金和其他奢侈品的优惠税收。

Wealth taxes and elimination of subsidies for the rich should in any event be part of the long-run reform agenda to reduce growing inequality, he said.

他说，无论如何，征收财产税和取消对富人的补贴都应该成为减少贫富差距的长期改革议程的一部分。

He also said that the government should relax the borrowing norms for the states as this is an extraordinary situation which calls for extraordinary responses.

他还说，由于情况特殊，政府应该放宽各邦的借贷标准。

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49755.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

Dillip Patnaik

Forget the words of economists such as Raghuram Rajan, Arvind Subramanian, Amartya Sens. In order to make India's economy more productive and competitive India needs excellent leader like Trump and first grade staff. India got third rating leadership along with garbage staffs.

忘掉拉古拉姆•拉詹、阿尔温德·苏布兰马尼安、阿马蒂亚•森等经济学家说的话。为了提高印度经济的生产力，为了让印度经济更具竞争力，印度需要特朗普这样的优秀领导人，需要一流的员工。印度的领导人和员工都是三流的。

Nageswara Rao S

Who asked for his opinions why these guys cannot keep quite and live in US happily??? We do not need you AS and RR

谁让他发表意见了？

为什么这些家伙不能安静点

?在美国过你们的好日子吧，我们不需要你们说三道四

Vikram

One can expect worse from the govt in the near term and be prepared. This BJP govt of Modi have created a mess and instead of trying to solve, they keep playing - with ordinary citizens. Aache Din for all has come.. the Modi version.

在短期内情况将变得更糟，做好准备吧。莫迪领导的人民党政府制造了一场混乱，他们没有努力解决问题，还在糊弄老百姓。莫迪说，大家的好日子就要来了。

Balakrishnan Hariharan

I'm reminded , in this context, a tweet by a respected columnist with words to the extent : ' Whenever there is strife in India, four chefs rush to the media and T.V. Studios. They are : Raghuram Rajan, Arvind Subramanian, Amartya Sen and Arundhati Roy'. And yet, our Macaulay media will publish their maudlin statements. That is the tragedy.

这让我想起了一位专栏作家在推特上写的一句话: “每当印度一出事，有四个人会冲到电视演播室。他们是:拉古拉姆·拉詹、阿尔温德·苏布兰马尼安、阿马蒂亚·森和阿兰达蒂·罗伊。”

然而，我们的媒体还是会发布他们唱衰的评论，太悲哀了。

Aam A

This is a recipe for Butchering the Senior citizens and retirees. While AS is right about the economy being in dire straits, its so, because of mismanagement by an incompetent govt. Why tax the already heavily taxed middle class?

这是要把老年人和退休人员赶尽杀绝吗？尽管经济的确陷入了困境，但这是无能政府管理不善造成的。为什么还要向已经被课以重税的中产阶级征税呢?

Sanjay Shembekar

This guy has changed is colors after going to US.. a chameleon... ignore him..

这家伙去美国之后就改变立场了，变色龙，不要理睬他 .

Damodar Biswal

The salaried n pensioner class have already contributed to the PM's /CM's relief fund.Some prominent business houses have also contributed enough.But there r other business class who neither disclose their true income nor pay due tax.These people should be identified n milked.

工薪阶层和退休人员已经向总理/首席部长的救济基金捐钱了。一些著名的商业机构也出了很多钱。但也有一些人既不披露自己的真实收入，也不缴纳应缴税款。应该把这些人揪出来。

Prakash Pimparkar

Govt need to cut salaries by 25% central and state this itself will generate 4.5 lacs needed to pay poor and marginals

中央政府和各邦政府人员的工资应该下调25%，这么一来就能筹集4.5万亿卢比资金，可以用来救济穷人

Melman Const

Glad he has not said India will reach 5 tillion this year.

还好他没说今年印度的经济总量将达到5万亿美元。

Rahul Ranalkar

yeah ! why not ! bucher the salaried class as it's easiest to know how much we earn out of the 14 hour daily slog. we are the only honest tax payers. you don't have a clue how much businesses are earning and hiding. it has become a norm that interests of salaried class are always last in line.

宰工薪阶层。工薪阶层一天工作14小时，收入是最容易掌握的。工薪阶层是唯一诚实的纳税人。你根本无从知道企业赚了多少钱，又隐匿了多少钱。工薪阶层的利益总是排在最后，这已成为了一种常态。

Raghunathan R

always negative thought

他的看法总是这么消极

Chayan Roy

Thanks that he did not speak only -ve like earlier occassions. Best drive needed is buy Indian product, eat only Indian produce, dream India. I would urge, let Automobile renain slow for few years, let us not buy LED / Smart TV for couple of years other than made in India and Govt must block 5G for couple of years. In this process, we shall buy moreand moreIndian product. All Indian business who opened mfg unit in Chn are requested U-Turn.

支持国货是印度经济发展最大的驱动力，大家只买印度货，这几年不要买从其他国家进口的LED和智能电视，这几年政府还是别让别国5G进来。在这个过程中，我们会购买越来越多的国货。所有在开厂的印度企业都必须返回本土生产。

P M Madhyastha

Typical beuracratic way of increase tax on middle class, squeeze and bring them to poor class. No big innovation

对中产阶级增税，把他们压榨成穷人。这是典型的做法，没什么新意。

Dillip Patnaik

Looking into post Coronavirus India's economy will remain sluggish. The projected economy will be disappointing.

疫情过后，印度的经济将会持续低迷，预计经济前景会非常令人失望。

Raghu SA

Fanciful, as only economists can!...raising money thru market borrowings or voluntary contributions by the haves-when virtually everyone is (supposedly) cash-crunched, who will subscribe to the bonds? or cough up donations? Printing money is the only option because it does not depend on anybody's munificence. We should worry about inflation later

经济学家只会幻想！几乎所有人都面临现金紧缺，谁会认购这些债券呢?

谁愿意捐款?

印钞是唯一的选择，不需要谁的慷慨解囊。我们应该担心的是日后会出现通货膨胀

Jay Boro

Expecting fekendra to revive dying economy in a matter of months is 'too' optimistic too. Indian economy was already in ICU even before virus, now with virus it's literally negative.

指望莫迪能在几个月内重振垂死的经济，这也太“乐观”了。在疫情爆发之前印度经济就已经进了ICU了，现在已经负增长了。

Guest

IMF and WHO have become redundant in today's context

现在，国际货币基金组织和世界卫生组织这些机构已经是多余的了

Priya B

what a crappy article. get economy into deeper depression through wealth tax and squeezing the already battered middle class.Focus should be on pump priming the economy through more investment and spend in infrastructure, healthcare. Govt should rather bring down tax rates and incetivize consumption. by giving such negative signals as recommended by this author, people will withdraw into their shell even further and economic recovery will be delayed.

这是篇烂文章。通过征收财产税和压榨已经遭受重创的中产阶级，只会让经济陷入更严重的萧条。应该把重点放在通过增加基础设施和医疗方面的投资和支出来刺激经济。政府应该降低税率，刺激消费。作者给出的负面信号，会让人们退缩，经济复苏也会被推迟。

Vitthal P

India has been in a bad shape for last 3 to 4 years because of pathetic governance by Modi and BJP. Now we are totally in a mess. Expecting the current BJP government to revive economy is living a fool's dream.

由于莫迪和人民党管理不善，在过去3-4年里印度的情况一直很糟糕。现在我们完全是一团糟，期待这届人民党政府重振经济无异于痴人说梦。

外文： https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-gdp-projections-by-world-bank-imf-too-optimistic-ex-cea-subramanian/articleshow/75165603.cms