A month of lockdown: Covid growth falls from 22% to 8%

封城一个月：印度新冠病例增速从22%降至8%

When PM Modi announced a total lockdown of the country exactly a month ago, there were around 500 Covid-19 cases in India. But there were clear signs that the numbers were going to shoot up. The average daily growth in cases was 21.6% on March 24, which since dropped to 8.1%. Had we continued to grow at that rate, the number of cases would have crossed 2 lakh by now.

一个月前莫迪总理宣布全面封锁时，印度的新冠确诊病例约为500例。但有明显的迹象表明，这一数字将大幅上升。3月24日，病例的平均日增长率为21.6%，之后降至8.1%。如果继续以之前的速度增长，印度目前的确诊病例数应该超过20万了。

But a growth rate of 8.1% three days into the fifth week of lockdown is still higher than what the worst-hit countries achieved after locking down for the same period. While Germany brought down the growth rate to 2%, the US was at 4.8%.

印度封城进入了第五周的第三天，目前8.1%的病例增速仍然高于受影响最严重国家同期的增速，德国病例增速已经降至2%，而美国则降至4.8%。

If India continues to grow at the current rate, we will have close to 40,000 cases by the end of next week, which would swell to almost 70,000 in a fortnight, and near 2.5 lakh by the end of May.

如果印度的病例数量继续以目前的速度增长，到下周末，将有近4万例确诊，两周内将增至近7万例，到5月底确诊病例将接近25万例。

But given how some states have managed to lower their growth rate (Kerala is growing at 1.8%, lower than Germany), the average growth rate could well fall in the coming days.

鉴于一些邦已经设法降低了病例增速(喀拉拉邦的病例增速为1.8%，低于德国)，未来几天的平均增速很可能会下降。

Even a small drop makes a huge difference to the total numbers. For instance, if India manages to bring down its growth rate to 6%, a month later, we would have to deal with about 1.3 lakh cases; at 5%, the total number won’t even cross one lakh.

即使是小幅的下降也会对病例总数产生巨大影响。例如，如果印度设法将病例增速降至6%，一个月后，我们将应对约13万例病例；如果增速降至5%，病例总数甚至不会超过10万例。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49767.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

Vivek Jadhav

Lockdown is not the solution for COVID-19 its a temporary time for govt. to prepare for cases. this virus is not going to go away until vaccine is available. it will take another 12-18 months for vaccine. we will have to live with virus. 80% of infected people gets cured on their own rest 20% have fatality chances due to pre medical conditions, plus thousands die everyday from TB, malaria, & rest other diseases. if we lockdown the country till every last infection gets resolved then its a doom, it will destroy everything. millions of labors, daily wagers, poor people will die of hunger, unemployment if not died by virus. !!

封城不是解决办法，只是让政府有了一些准备时间，等有了疫苗，这种病毒才会消失。还要12-18个月才能研制出疫苗。在此之前，我们将不得不与病毒共存。80%的感染者靠自愈，20%的患者可能会死去。另外，印度每天还有成千上万的人死于结核病、疟疾和其他疾病。如果封城持续到病例清零为止，那这将是一场灾难，将摧毁一切。数以百万计的失业工人、穷人就算没病死，也会饿死! !

The Common Man

Amazing india... our leader Modi is the best leader in the world

印度真是不可思议……我们的莫迪是全世界最出色的领导人

Naval

Virus cases will shoot up anyway after lock down withdrawal, impact will be even stronger post summer September-December months. Lock down only delay the crisis, vaccine is year away so that is too long wait when you notice what happened in New York from 0 cases to 100000 cases within a Month and thousands of death. .

解封后，病例数量将迅速增加，9 - 12月期间疫情会更加严重。封城只能推迟危机的到来，还有一年才能研制出疫苗。看看纽约，一个月内从0例增至10万例，成千上万人死去。

Dean Mishra

app due to timely and appropriate steps taken by modi govt.

这归功于莫迪政府及时采取了适当的措施。

Election Beast

He was slee since jan

自1月以来，莫迪什么也没干啊

Ravi

don't compare Germany and USA to India. first of all india has a huge population and controlling a pandemic is very difficult. but must appreciate Modi government on dealing with this inspite of all odds against it

不要拿印度和德国、美国比。印度人口众多，难以控制流行病。

我们必须感谢莫迪政府，尽管困难重重，他们仍能控制住疫情。

Sriinivasan Vasan

yes. correctly pointed out.

说得对。

K Mohan Hyderabad city

PM Modi must be complemented for taking timely action of lock down

莫迪总理及时下令封城，值得赞赏。

Indian

if there was no lock down we would have reached 1 lac. that was yesterday. today it is 2 lac. to show govt is doing a fantastic work they are managing numbers?

昨天说，如果没有封城，印度目前的确诊病例应该达到10万例了，今天就说达到20万例了。印度政府修改数据有一套啊

Sarthak

If Tablighi Jamaat activities were not there, situation would have been much better.

如果没有塔布里·扎马特集会，印度目前的情况会好得多。

Piyush Sourav

Lockdown is effective in controlling the spread, but can't absolutely stop it's growth

封锁能有效控制疫情的蔓延，但不能完全阻止病例的增长。

Shapoor Bomanjee

Cases are not going to come down. They will rise more rapidly, since more tests will be done. One could expect 1,00,000 cases in about a months time.

确诊数量不会降下来的。做的检测越来越多了，确诊数量将上升得更快。一个月内，印度的确诊病例预计将达到10万例。

Raja Ram

Only 15 thousand tested until 15th April and 65 thousand faulty kits arrived from only last week yet the government is blowing the trumpet of victory. Feku raja doing what he always does best, telling lies and giving out fake figures. It is forecasted that USA and India lead by 2 Fools will have highest number of cases in the world and by end of May government will give up and lift the lock down and allow everyone out with a mask and your lives will depend on god if no vaccine is found.

截止4月15日，只做了1.5万次检测，从进口的6.5万份试剂盒上周刚运抵印度，然而印度政府现在就吹响了胜利的号角。莫迪一如既往的撒谎、公布假数据，这也是他最擅长的。预计美国和印度的病例数量将是最高的，5月底印度政府将放弃抗疫，解除封锁，允许大家戴口罩出门。如果疫苗没研制出来的话，大家只能求老天保佑了。

Justice Freedom Equality

On 31 March India reported 146 cases. By 15 April daily figure jumped to 1031. 23 April daily new infections were standing tall at 1669. On what level infection is under control?

3月31日，印度新增146例。4月15日，新增1031例。4月23日，新增病例高达1669例。这叫控制住了？这是控制在什么水平了?

Raj Verma

WE ALL SHOULD BE THANKFUL TO MODIJI AND ENTIRE GOVT. MACHINERY INCLUDING HEALTH STAFF AND POLICE FOR SAVING OUR LIVES.

我们都应该感谢莫迪、感谢政府，感谢医护人员和警察，他们救了我们的命。

Deepak

It's better to continue lockdown for a month more and then continue lockdown only in active zones. Quarantine all people coming from other countries for 2 weeks. There is no other solution other than breaking the chain.

在疫情严重的地区，封城最好再延续一个月。所有来自其他国家的人员必须隔离两周。除了打破传播链外，没有其他的解决办法。

TOM

GOOD JOB INDIA AND INDIANS. LISTEN TO YOUR LEADERS. YOU GUYS SET AN EXAMPLE THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. THANK YOU

干得好，印度。干得好，印度人，你们听领导指挥，为全世界树立了榜样，谢谢你们！

Sushi C

Lock down is not a solution as we don't know by when anti covid medicine will be come at market. only rich indians want lock down to be continued as they have sufficient food & money on their hand. If lock down continues, poor would die by hangry before covid atrack to them.

封城不是解决办法，我们不知道治疗新药肺炎的药物什么时候能上市。只有印度富人希望继续封城，因为他们有足够的食物和钱。如果封城持续下去，穷人没染上病毒就先饿死了。

shobha rani kandakatla

Thanks to our prime minister india is safe

多亏了我们的总理，印度安全得很

Sanjoy Pandey

At least in Maharashtra, the lock down in the red zones must be continued for another 3 weeks.

至少在马哈拉施特拉邦，疫情重灾区必须再封锁三周。

Rajib Mukherjee

Lockdown is not possible for ever. As and when, the LD is lifted, the virus will be back. Ultimately everyone will get infected. 80% will have mild symptoms and recover by themselves

不可能一直封城。一旦解封，病毒就会卷土重来。最终每个人都会被感染，80%的患者症状轻微，将自行痊愈

Sumit Nair

............Modiji was proactive............Jai HIND

莫迪积极采取措施，印度必胜！

HappyTimes User

Lockdown should be extended till 15th May.

Mobility must be cut down as much as possible to decrease the number of ve cases.

封城应延至5月15日。为了减少感染，大家尽量别出门。

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/a-month-of-lockdown-covid-growth-falls-from-22-to-8/articleshow/75363990.cms