India coronavirus: Why is India reopening amid a spike in cases?

为什么印度在病例激增的情况下解封?

India is roaring - rather than inching - back to life amid a record spike in Covid-19 infections. The BBC's Aparna Alluri finds out why.

在新冠感染人数创历史新高之际，印度却急于解封？BBC记者Aparna Alluri找到了原因。

On Saturday, India's government announced plans to end a national lockdown that began on 25 March.

周六，印度政府宣布计划结束从3月25日开始的全国封锁。

This was expected - the roads, and even the skies, have been busy for the last 10 days since restrictions started to ease for the first time in two months. Many businesses and workplaces are already open, construction has re-started, markets are crowded and parks are filling up. Soon, hotels, restaurants, malls, places of worship, schools and colleges will also reopen.

这是预料之中的，自从两个月来首次开始放松限制以来，许多企业和工作场所已经开放，建设施工已经重启，市场也变得拥挤，公园也人满为患。不久，旅馆，饭店，购物中心，礼拜场所，学校和学院也将重新开放。

But the pandemic continues to rage. When India went into lockdown, it had reported 519 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. Now, its case tally has crossed 173,000, with 4,971 deaths. It added nearly 8,000 new cases on Saturday alone - the latest in a slew of record single-day spikes.

但疫情仍在肆虐。当印度开始封锁时，已经报告了519例确诊病例和10例死亡病例，目前印度的病例总数已经超过17.3万，死亡4971例。仅周六一天就新增了近8000例确诊病例，这是连续创纪录单日峰值的最新记录。

So, why the rush to reopen?

那印度为什么急于解封？

The lockdown is simply unaffordable

印度根本承受不起长期封锁的代价

"It's certainly time to lift the lockdown," says Gautam Menon, a professor and researcher on models of infectious diseases.

"Beyond a point, it's hard to sustain a lockdown that has gone on for so long - economically, socially and psychologically."

传染病模型研究者Gautam Menon教授说：“是时候解封了。印度很难维持这么长时间的封锁——无论是从经济上、社会上还是心理上来看。”

From day one, India's lockdown came at a huge cost, especially since so many of its people live on a daily wage or close to it. It put food supply chains at risk, cost millions their livelihood, and throttled every kind of business - from car manufacturers to high-end fashion to the corner shop selling tobacco. As the economy sputtered and unemployment rose, India's growth forecast tumbled to a 30-year-low.

从封城第一天开始，印度就付出了巨大的代价，尤其是因为很多印度人靠日薪生活。封城使食品供应链有中断的风险，使数百万人丧失生计，并扼杀了各行各业——从汽车制造商到高端时装公司，再到街角的烟草店。随着经济衰退和失业率上升，印度的增长预测跌至30年来的最低点。

Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former central bank governor, said at the end of April that the country needed to open up quickly, and any further lockdowns would be "devastating".

经济学家、前央行行长拉古拉姆•拉詹在4月底表示，印度需要迅速开放，封锁不管延期多久都将是“毁灭性的”。

The opinion is shared by global consultant McKinsey, whose report from earlier this month said India's economy must be "managed alongside persistent infection risks".

全球顾问麦肯锡对此观点表示赞同。麦肯锡在本月早些时候的报告中说，印度的经济必须“与持续的感染风险一起进行管理”。

"The original purpose of the lockdowns was to delay the spike so we can put health services and systems in place, so we are able handle the spike [when it comes]," says Dr N Devadasan, a public health expert. "That objective, to a large extent, has been met."

公共卫生专家N Devadasan博士说:“封锁的最初目的是延缓高峰的到来，以便我们可以将医疗服务和系统部署到位，以便我们能够（在出现高峰时）从容应对。这个目标在很大程度上已经实现。”

In the last two months, India has turned stadia, schools and even train coaches into quarantine centres, added and expanded Covid-19 wards in hospitals, and ramped up testing as well as production of protective gear. While grave challenges remain and shortages persist, the consensus seems to be that the government has bought as much time as possible.

在过去的两个月中，印度将体育场馆，学校，甚至培训教练改成了隔离中心，在医院增加了新冠肺炎病房，并加大了检测设备和防护装备的生产。尽管仍然存在严峻的挑战，而且短缺仍然存在，但人们的共识似乎是政府已经争取到了尽可能多的时间。

"We have used the lockdown period to prepare ourselves… Now is the time to revive the economy," Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said last week.

德里首席部长阿尔温德上周表示：“我们已经在封城期间做准备，现在是时候重振经济了。”

The silver lining

一线希望

For weeks, India's relatively low Covid-19 numbers baffled experts everywhere. Despite the dense population, disease burden and underfunded public hospitals, there was no deluge of infections or fatalities. Low testing rates explain the former, but not the latter.

数周以来，印度相对较低的确诊数量令各地的专家感到困惑。尽管人口密集，公立医院资金不足，但没有发生大量感染或死亡。低测试率可以解释前者，而不能解释后者。

In fact, India made global headlines not for its caseload but for its botched handling of the lockdown - millions of informal workers, largely migrants, were left jobless overnight. Scared and unsure, many tried to return home, often desperate enough to walk, cycle or hitchhike across hundreds of kilometres.

实际上，印度之所以上全球头条新闻，并不是因为确诊数量众多，而是因为封城执行不当，数百万民工在一夜之间失业，感到恐惧，很多人徒步返乡，骑自行车或搭便车跋涉数百公里。

Perhaps the choice - between a virus that didn't appear to be wreaking havoc yet, and a lockdown that certainly was - seemed obvious to the government.

对于政府来说，要在一种似乎还没有造成严重破坏的病毒和肯定会造成严重破坏的封锁之间做选择。

But that is changing quickly as cases shoot up. "I suspect we will keep finding more and more cases, but they will mostly be asymptomatic or will have mild symptoms," Dr Devadasan says.

但这随着案件激增而迅速改变。Devadasan博士说：“病例将越来越多，但大多是无症状或轻症患者。”

The hope - which is also encouraging the government to reopen - is that most of India's undetected infections are not severe enough to require hospitalisation. And so far, except in Mumbai city, there has been no dearth of hospital beds.

希望在于，印度大部分未被发现的感染病例还没有严重到需要住院治疗的程度。到目前为止，除了孟买，医院床位并不缺乏。

The government, for instance, has been touting India's mortality rate as a silver lining - at nearly 3%, it's among the lowest in the world.

印度政府一直将印度的死亡率-接近3%，吹捧为一线希望，印度是死亡率最低的国家之一。

But some are unconvinced by that. Dr Jacob John, a prominent virologist, says India has never had, and still doesn't have, a robust system for recording deaths - in his view, the government is certainly missing Covid-19 deaths because they have no way of knowing of every fatality.

但有些人并不相信这一点。著名病毒学家雅各布·约翰博士说，印度从来没有，到现在也没有健全的死亡记录系统——在他看来，政府肯定漏掉了死亡病例，因为他们无从得知每一个死亡病例。

Dr John, like several other experts, also predicts a peak in July or August, and believes the country is reopening so quickly because the "government realised the futility of such leaky lockdowns".

约翰博士和其他几位专家一样，也预测印度在7月或8月将会达到峰值，并认为印度重新开放的速度如此之快是因为“政府意识到这种漏洞百出的封锁是徒劳的”。

A shift in strategy

策略转变

So is the government gearing up for another lockdown when the peak comes?

当峰值到来时，政府是否准备再次封锁呢

The federal government has left it to states to decide where, how and to what extent to lift the lockdown as the virus' progression varies wildly across India.

病毒在印度各地的传播速度存在巨大差异，联邦政府已将决定权移交给各邦，让他们自行决定解封地区、解封方式和解封程度。

While the government has said how many infections have been avoided - up to 300,000 - and lives saved - up to 71,000 - by the lockdown, there is no indication of what lies ahead.

虽然政府已经表示，封称已经减少了30万确诊病例，挽救了多达7.1万人的生命，但没有迹象表明未来会发生什么。

There is only advice: The day the government began to ease restrictions, Mr Kjeriwal tweeted, urging people to "follow discipline and control the coronavirus disease" as it was their "responsibility".

政府开始放宽限制的那天，德里首席部长在推特上敦促人们“遵守规定，遏制病毒传播，这是人们的“责任”。

The overwhelming message is that the virus is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it - and the only way to do that, it appears, is to let people live with it.

病毒已经存在，我们必须学会与它共存——而做到这一点的唯一方法，似乎是让人们与它共存。

美国雅虎读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50017.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

D.wolf

there's no government check to help recover the loss, so people have to choose their ways to die, by starvation or by virus.

政府没有补助，所以人们不得不选择自己的死亡方式，饿死或病死。

Alex

Just read about the caste system. It’s enough to understand why India society is hard to move forward.

了解一下种姓制度就足以理解为什么印度社会很难向前发展。

Ron

People have got to make a living. People get cabin fever and can't stay home no more. They are willing to take their chances with the virus.

人们会得幽居病，不能再呆在家里了。人们愿意冒着感染病毒的风险，他们要维持生计。

AP

One simple answer is that many people don't follow lockdown in India. It makes lockdown meaningless.

答案很简单，在印度，很多人不遵守封城规定，这使得封城毫无意义。

wazzup

India just gave up - as they simply cannot manage the massive population. That’s the real reason.

印度放弃了。他们根本无法管控如此庞大的人口，这才是真正的原因。

WANG

Without population control how India moving to develo country.

不控制人口，印度如何跻身发展家之列。

Anonymous

India needs birth control.

印度需要控制生育。

GuttBomb

if a lockdown worked there wouldn't a spike in cases genius.

如果封城管用，那确诊病例就不会激增。

Leonard

They saw what the lockdown did to the economy and people.

他们看到了封城对经济和人民的影响。

Port

Lockdown was extended in highly impacted areas through June 30. in other areas only a few activities allowed

在疫情重灾区，封城间延长至6月30日。在其他地区，只允许少数活动重启。

bob

India has a death rate of 4 per million compared to 400 per million in the USA

India is doing a great job

Modi is an ultra capable leader

印度的死亡率是百万分之4，而美国是百万分之400

印度做得很好

莫迪是一个非常有能力的领导人

D.wolf

ever since DJ Trump visited India in February, the cases jumped from zero to over 170k s in India....

自从特朗普2月份访问印度以来，印度的确诊病例从零上升到17万多……

Net Dawg

o man, i think india is going the way of brazil...

我认为印度正在重蹈巴西的覆辙……

Ravinder

Because it’s not deadly and all media hype.

这种病不致命，都是媒体炒作的

ANTONIO

THE COWS TOLD THEM THEY COULD OPEN UP......

神牛告诉他们可以解封了

Peace

I think BBC needs to stop reporting about India , cannot trust BBC ...

BBC不要再报道有关印度的新闻了，不能相信BBC……