India's economy to contract by 3.2% in fiscal year 2020-21: World Bank

世界银行：印度经济将在2020-2021财年萎缩3.2%

WASHINGTON: India's economy will shrink by 3.2 per cent in the current fiscal, the World Bank said on Monday as it joined a chorus of international agencies that are forecasting a contraction in growth rate due to the coronavirus lockdown halting economic activity.

华盛顿：周一，世界银行表示，印度经济将在本财年萎缩3.2%。与其他国际机构一样，世界银行也预测，由于新冠疫情封锁导致经济活动停滞，印度经济增速将会下降。

The Washington-based multilateral lender said that the COVID-19 pandemic and the multi-phased lockdown imposed to curb its spread has resulted in a devastating blow to the Indian economy.

这家总部位于华盛顿的多边贷款机构表示，新冠疫情以及为遏制其蔓延而实施的多阶段封锁措施对印度经济造成了毁灭性打击。

In its latest edition of the Global Economic Prospect, the World Bank downgraded its projection of India by a massive negative nine per cent.

在最新版的《全球经济展望》中，世界银行将其对印度的预测大幅下调了9%。

However, the Indian economy is expected to bounce back in 2021, the World Bank said.

不过，世界银行表示，印度经济预计将在2021年反弹。

"In India, growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.2 per cent in the fiscal year 2019/20 (the year ending in March-2020) and output is projected to contract by 3.2 per cent in fiscal year 2020/21, when the impact of COVID-19 will largely materialise.

“在2019-2020财政年度(截至3月-2020年财年)，预计印度的增长率将放缓至4.2%，预计在2020-2021财年，其产出将收缩3.2%，届时疫情的影响将全面展现出来。”

"Stringent measures to restrict the spread of the virus, which heavily curtail short-term activity, will contribute to the contraction," it said in the Global Economic Prospect report.

世行在《全球经济展望》报告中表示:“遏制病毒传播的严格封锁措施严重限制了短期活动，将导致经济萎缩。”

International rating agencies like Moody's Investors Service, Fitch Rating and S&P Global Ratings have all predicted a 4-5 per cent contraction in India's economic growth rate during April 2020 to March 2021 fiscal. Crisil has said this would be the country's fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date.

穆迪、惠誉和标普等国际评级机构都预测，在本财政年度（2020年4月至2021年3月），印度经济增长率将下降4%至5%。印度、评级公司Crisil表示这将是自印度独立以来的第四次衰退，自自由化以来的第一次衰退，而且可能是迄今为止最糟糕的一次。

The World Bank said spillovers from the weaker global growth and balance sheet stress in the financial sector will also weigh on activity, despite some support from the fiscal stimulus and continued monetary policy easing.

世界银行表示，尽管财政刺激措施和持续宽松的货币政策提供了一些支持，但全球增长放缓和金融业资产负债表压力的溢出效应也将拖累经济活动。

According to the report, the central bank has been purchasing government bonds to further ease the financial conditions. The Indian government has also increased its spending on healthcare to bolster the COVID-19 response, wage support, in-kind and cash transfers to lower-income households, deferral of tax payments, as well as loan and liquidity support for small businesses and financial institutions.

根据该报告，印度央行一直在购买政府债券，以进一步缓解金融状况。印度政府还增加了医疗支出，以支持应对新冠肺炎疫情，提供工资支持，向低收入家庭提供非现金和现金支持，延迟纳税，并向小企业和金融机构提供贷款和流动性支持。

The growth rate of the Indian economy in fiscal 2017 was seven per cent, which dropped to 6.1 per cent in fiscal 2018 and to 4.2 per cent in fiscal 2020, it said.

2017财年印度经济增长率为7%，2018财年降至6.1%，2020财年降至4.2%。

The real impact of the COVID-19 and lockdown would be felt in the current fiscal (2020-21) begng April, the bank said as it forecast a negative growth rate of 3.2 per cent.

世行表示，从4月开始的当前财政(2020-2021财年)将感受到新冠疫情及封锁的真正影响。世行预测，印度经济将出现3.2%的负增长。

The World Bank revised its January projection on India by a massive negative nine per cent for the year 2020 and minus three per cent for the year 2021.

世界银行将1月份对印度的预测大幅下调，2020年和2021年分别下调9%和3%。

The contraction in the Indian economy will have a spillover impact in South Asia, according to the bank's projections.

根据世行的预测，印度经济的收缩将对南亚产生溢出效应。

Growth in the region is projected to register a contraction of -2.7 per cent in 2020 and is marked by high uncertainty, the report said.

该报告称，预计2020年该地区的增长将萎缩2.7%，且存在高度不确定性。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50067.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

Santosh Mehta

Indian economy will rebound only in election year 2024 that to with fake and inflated data only on paper and not in practical, our RBI governor will say inflation is at rock bottom and surplus funds of 2 lakh crore will be transferred to govt

只有到2024选举年，印度经济才会反弹，到时候会编造假数据，不会公布实际的数据。印度储备银行行长会说通货膨胀已经到了谷底，2万亿的盈余资金将会转给政府。

Ivory

Oh it is due to COVID19

都是因为新冠病毒

Anil Kumar Singla

Our economy was already in ICU due to bad policies of the Modi govt. # NOTEBANDI and faulty GST implementation. And now due to insensible decision of sudden complete lockdown 1,2,3 of the entire country , the economy has gone on VENTILATOR. Every day FM is trying to give oxygen for revival but how long ? What will happen when Corona cases reaches its peak in July and August ?

由于莫迪政府出台的垃圾政策，实施商品及服务税，印度经济已经进入ICU了。现在由于突然实施全国封锁，经济已经陷入了困境。财政部长都在努力为经济复苏供氧，但要多久才能复苏呢?疫情在7月和8月达到顶峰时会发生什么?

chanakya

Wrong. Because we have an inefficient FM, our economy will contract by 10%

错了，由于我们财政部长办事效率低下，印度经济增长率将萎缩10%、

Pradeep

This means -3.2% gdp. close to 100 billion dollars of India combined wealth eroded.

这意味着GDP将下降3.2%，印度财富缩水将近1000亿美元。

thanks Hakeem

Modi joker is solely responsible for this.

莫迪要负全责

And

But stock mkt will be up 30%! Wonder how that works..

但股价将上涨30%!

我想知道这是怎么回事。

Myank

All companies virtually had zero business and nil production in first quarter yet stock market has not tanked... Market works on sentiments rather than fundamentals

今年第一季度，所有公司都没有生产，营业额几乎为零，但股市并未暴跌……市场是由情绪而非基本面决定的

Bharat

Modiji has done the impossible!! What a PM we have!!

有莫迪在，没有什么是不可能的!!

我们的总理多棒啊!!

thanks Hakeem

yes he has done what chai wala can do.

是的，他只是做了一个卖茶人所能做的

Umesh Kumar

Must be worse like Pakistan and Afganistan.

印度经济比巴基斯坦和阿富汗还更糟了。

Hamzah Iftikhar

beg to Pak for help

向巴基斯坦求助吧

Timur Kumar

what nonsense it will be more than 10%......

真是胡说八道，印度经济增速会超过10%的……

Truth is

World Bank is Anti Nation. Send them to Pakistan.

世界银行是反对我们国家的，把他们送到巴基斯坦去。

Tariq Khan

do we really need enemies like or Pak or Nepal ?

我们真的需要和、巴基斯坦或尼泊尔为敌吗?

Rajaali

The situation became for all other countries after covid. But we were ahead of them by three years, we touched the bottom in 2015-16. Others will take tthree years to recover and we will take not less than ten years.

疫情期间，所有国家的情况都这样，但我们会早他们三年触底，印度经济是在2015-2016年跌至谷底。其他国家需要3年才能复苏，而我们至少需要10年。

MOhammed Ansar

World Bank is not a credible agency....Le Bhakt

世界银行不是一个值得信赖的机构……

Junaid Khan

most of our fellow countrymen r not bothered about economy at all. They don't correlate it with country's pride and follow propaganda politics

大多数印度人根本不关心经济，只关注政治宣传，他们认为经济好坏和国家自豪感无关。。

Nationalist

Don't worry modi ji will save us

别担心，莫迪会拯救我们的

Shri

MOST ECONOMIES INCLUDING INDIA, USA, CHINA, JAPAN, EU WILL CONTRACT 20-30% NO WORRIES, VERY HEALTHY AND NORMAL.

大多数经济体，包括印度、美国、、日本、欧盟在内，将会萎缩20-30%，不用担心，印度经济非常健康，非常正常。

Sanay Bhattacharya

The situation is same for all countries. Why is India singled out? But India will recover faster than other countries because we a visionary leader who has the courage to take timely decisions.

所有国家的情况都一样。为什么单把印度挑出来说?

印度将比其他国家更快复苏，因为我们的领导人有远见，有勇气及时做出决定。