Abandoning lockdown, India's coronavirus cases may reach 800,000 in a month: Study

研究表明，如果放弃封城，印度的确诊病例或在一个月内达到80万例

NEW DELHI: After giving up on a costly lockdown, India's coronavirus outbreak is projected to nearly triple by July 15 to over 800,000 cases as its leaders tell citizens to 'learn to live with the virus'.

新德里：如果放弃了代价高昂的封城，预计到7月15日印度的确诊病例将增加近两倍，达到80多万例。印度领导人告诉国民要学会与病毒共存。

The forecast from a team of data scientists at the University of Michigan would put India just below Brazil, the world's second worst-hit country at present, and on track to surpass the Latin American country given its massive population of 1.3 billion people and the ongoing relaxation of containment measures.

根据密歇根大学一组数据科学家的预测，印度排在巴西之后，后者目前是全球受疫情第二严重的国家。考虑到印度拥有13亿的庞大人口，且封锁措施正在放松，印度的确诊数量有望超过巴西。

"You cannot see the peak, it's been pushed further in time," said Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Michigan who is part of the team that's modeling India's pandemic. She removed longer term projections from the team's website because they were causing people to panic. "I wish I could be more positive but I think it's going to be really hard over the next couple of months."

密歇根大学的生物统计学教授Bhramar Mukherjee是预测印度疫情团队的一员。她说：“目前看不到疫情高峰，已经推后了”。她删除了团队网站上的长期预测，担心会引起人们的恐慌。“我希望能更积极一些，但我认为接下来的几个月真的很难。”

India tried a nationwide lockdown at the end of March, at a relatively early stage of its detected outbreak. While the measures arguably slowed transmission somewhat, they didn't flatten India's infection curve as hoped.

印度在3月底开始实施全国范围内的封锁，当时是疫情相对较早的阶段。尽管这些措施可以说在一定程度上减缓了疫情的蔓延速度，但并没有像人们希望的那样使印度的感染曲线趋平。

In fact, the lockdown pushed India toward its first full-year economic contraction in over four decades, rendering millions jobless and forcing the Narendra Modi-led government to ease curbs this month. Daily cases have since spiked to over 11,000, taking the total tally past 332,000, trailing only the US, Brazil and Russia.

事实上，封锁将印度推向了40多年来首次全年经济萎缩，导致数百万人失业，并迫使莫迪政府在本月放松了限制措施。自此，单日病例激增至逾1.1万例，确诊病例总数超过33.2万例，仅次于美国、巴西和俄罗斯。

With lockdowns too costly to continue and the surge of new cases each day too overwhelming to implement the kind of test-and-trace strategy used in South Korea and Germany, India must now focus on limiting casualties while ho people practice social distancing on their own.

由于封城成本太高，无法继续，而且每日新增病例太多，无法实施韩国和德国采用的那种检测和追踪策略，印度现在必须努力控制死亡人数，同时希望人们自行保持社交距离。

And as day labourers put out of work by the lockdown continue to flee India's megacities for their villages in India's hinterland, infections have begun to multiply in the poorer parts of the country that have even less health care infrastructure.

随着因封锁而失业的日薪工继续逃离印度的大城市，前往印度内陆的村庄，在医疗设施更薄弱的贫困地区，感染病例开始成倍增加。

Spokespeople for the ministry of health and the Indian Council of Medical Research did not respond to calls and emails requesting comment.

印度卫生部和印度医学研究委员会的发言人未回复要求置评的电话和电子邮件。

"India can't afford to have any more lockdowns and, therefore, the strategy is to open up and deal with the virus — I think the slogan is live with the corona," said Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the New Delhi and Washington DC-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy. "You basically have to live with it until the vaccine arrives or there is herd immunity."

新德里和华盛顿特区的疾病动力学、经济和政策中心主任Ramanan Laxminarayan说：“印度无法再继续实行封锁，其策略是开放，应对疫情，口号是与新冠病毒共存。基本上必须与病毒共存，直到疫苗问世，或者实现群体免疫”

Both those milestones are far off. Herd immunity occurs when at least 60% of a population develops antibodies naturally after infection.

这两个里程碑都很遥远。至少60%的群体在感染后自然产生抗体时才能出现群体免疫。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50111.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

Johnson K

Sad state of affairs. We had all the time in the world all the way from January to March . But instead of ram up the infrastructure, the government was busy playing politics, dislodging elected governments, making fun of people who raised COVID preparations, Bringing in an abrupt lockdown. No thought process has been applied in handling of the pandemic.

可悲啊。从一月到三月，印度是有时间做好应对准备的，但是政府并没有扩建医疗设施，而是忙于玩弄政治，取笑那些加强预防措施的人，并突然实施封锁，在处理疫情时没有深思熟虑。

Ramesh Mandayam

I think PM n the whole government have let down the country very badly. It’s now out of control. By the time the vaccine is developed half of India will be infected

总理和政府让国家非常失望，现在疫情已失控了。等到研制出疫苗时，一半的印度人都感染了。

chetumadhu10

Corona is spreading like cancer in our country. Hero has to take some drastic action like surgical strike to save Bharat mata.

新冠肺炎像癌症一样在印度蔓延。我们不得不采取一些大胆的行动，如外科手术式打击，以拯救印度。

Truth Is Bitter

Petroleum Price increased for 10 Days ... NO NEWS ??

汽油价格连续上涨10天了，没上新闻？

Ram

Its really sad ; but it makes me laugh whenever I remember , by April begng "bhakts had declared modi the leader in controlling Covid all over world , n wanted an award for modiji for his efficient corona management".

真的很悲哀。

每当我想起4月初“人民党粉丝们宣称莫迪是全球控制疫情最出色的领袖，应该为莫迪颁发高效控制疫情奖”时，我就会笑出声。

Eye Star

So What did we gain out off Lockdown? Can PM explain to all?

封城有什么效果?莫迪能向大家解释下吗?

Nangachod Mohammed

This is like World War Three with on one side and all the other countries on the other side. wants to become the only superpower that will rule over the entire world.

这就像第三次世界大战，站一边，其他国家站另一边。想成为统治全世界的唯一超级大国。

MONISH RAUT

Babus need money hence need to open the economy and put lives of their citizens in danger , increasing prices of petrol and diesel .

印度大佬们需要钱，因此需要开放经济，将公民的生命置于危险之中，导致汽油和柴油价格持续上涨。

Raj S

Corona virus spreading like wild fire just because of ignorance of people. After Mr. Modi appealed to citizens for clap from the balcony many people started dancing on the streets ( Garba was performed in Gujarat). Government can make the plans but implementation is our responsibility so we can't blame Government this failure.

因为人们的无知，新冠病毒像野火一样蔓延。在莫迪呼吁民众在阳台上鼓掌后，很多人开始在街上跳舞。政府可以制定计划，但执行是我们公民的责任，所以我们不能把封城失败的责任推到政府头上。

Sameer K

India seems will never see a peak as this will keep pushing back with the PM already announcing defeat, learn to live with coronavirus.

印度似乎永远看不到疫情高峰，总理已经宣布疫情失控了，峰值将不断推后，学会与新冠病毒共存吧。

KAMAL

Secular gang is feeling happy in this situation too as they have now opportunity to blame Modi and try to bake political breads out of it

在这种情况下世俗派也感到高兴，因为他们现在有机会指责莫迪，并试图从中获取政治利益

Kamal Kishor

With our leaders in centre and state doing only politics. It will be much more than 800000.

印度中央和各邦领导人只顾政治。印度的确诊病例将远远超过80万。

Bonny Moraes

Who shall we blame? It is “act of god”.

我们该怪谁呢?

这是“天灾”。

Johnson K

But we had all the time in the world from January to March to Ramp up health services and facilities. More beds, more PPE kits, a good protocol for handling of patients etc.

从1月到3月，我们有足够的时间来加强医疗服务和设施。增设更多的床位，准备更多的防护装备，制定治疗病人的方案等等。

Sreenivasa Mohendra

If the pandemic doubling in every 15 days, then it should be 14 lakhs by 15th July.

如果确诊病例每15天翻一倍，那么到7月15日，印度的确诊病例应该达到140万例。

manish nigam

Now what ? it's not just a question mark.

那现在怎么办呢?这是个大大的问号。

Deep Ocean

Results of inefficiency and corrupt policies of BJP and its allies.

这都是因为印度人民党及其盟友的低效、腐败政策。

Dev

stop producing like roaches... be vegan .. earth will be at peace

别拼命生孩子了，吃素，地球将会一片祥和。

Pratap Potluri

Cant Blame God for Man Made Errors , Virus was made by Humans !!

是人类犯的错，不能怪上天，病毒是人类制造的!!

Rudra Kundu

Why only this kind of negative news? Why should we talk about low death rate? Why do we not talk about high recovery percentage? Why? Why has beenthis kind of news printed? What is the motive?

为什么要刊登这种负面新闻?动机是什么?为什么只说低死亡率，为什么不谈谈高治愈率？

Shabbir Vora

Media just spreading panic among public. The agency should be fined or banned for spreading such news

媒体只会散布恐慌。传播此类消息的机构应予以罚款

Preeth Indian

First testing must be minimum 3 lakhs per day to reach that figure. With very low testing India will never reach 8 lakhs

首先要增加检测数量，确诊人数才能达到80万例，每天至少要进行30万次检测。