View: India’s economy is ailing from more than Covid-19

观点：印度经济不景气不仅仅是受新冠疫情影响

According to the International Monetary Fund, India will be the large economy worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. The Fund now says that Indian GDP in the ongoing financial year, which began in March 2020, will contract by 4.5%. Just a few weeks ago, it had been predicting 2% growth for the year.

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，印度将是受新冠疫情影响最严重的大型经济体。IMF目前表示，印度GDP在2020年3月开始的当前财年将萎缩4.5%。就在几周前，IMF还预测印度今年的经济增长率为2%。

The IMF’s projection is by and large in line with estimates from investment banks and other international organizations. Indian officials have been reticent about their own estimates. This is not surprising: India’s economy has not contracted since 1979. For the government, this is uncharted territory.

国际货币基金组织的预测大体上与投资银行和其他国际组织的估计一致。印度官员一直对自己的估计保持缄默。这并不奇怪，印度经济自1979年以来从未出现过萎缩。对于印度政府来说，这是一个未知的领域。

A slowdown of this magnitude will have enormous human consequences. By some estimates, the loss of three months’ income would leave nearly half of the country’s population mired in poverty, reversing all the gains made since the economy was liberalized in the early 1990s.

这种程度的放缓将产生巨大影响。根据一些估算，失去三个月的收入将使该国近一半的人口陷入贫困，使该国自上世纪90年代初经济自由化以来取得的所有成果化为泡影。

Worse, the government’s finances are strained. Tax revenues are set to crash and India’s hitherto relatively stable debt-to-GDP ratio may spike up toward 90%. Controlling the spread of the pandemic will bleed state resources, leaving little for the welfare measures that will be essential in coming months.

更糟糕的是，政府的财务状况也很紧张。税收收入将会大幅减少，印度迄今相对稳定的债务占GDP的比例可能会飙升至90%。控制疫情的蔓延将耗费国家资源，为未来数月至关重要的福利措施所留的资金已经所剩无几。

Such economic pressures help explain why the government lifted India’s stringent lockdown even though the spread of Covid-19 clearly hadn’t been controlled. India now has the world’s fourth-largest number of Covid-19 cases. While the country may be partly protected from a tide of deaths by its favorable age distribution, there is every reason to suppose that more lockdowns to protect its inadequate health infrastructure will be required. If nothing else, this complicates predictions for the medium term and makes the task of reviving the economy that much harder.

这种经济压力有助于解释为何在疫情显然尚未得到控制的情况下，印度政府仍解除了严格封锁。印度目前的确诊病例数量居世界第四。虽然该国的年龄分布可能会在一定程度上降低死亡人数，但有充分理由认为，印度卫生设施不足，需要实施更长的封锁。至少，这让中期预测变得更加复杂，使经济复苏的任务变得更加难以完成。

But don’t let anyone tell you the pandemic is the main reason India’s growth has gone off a cliff. The economy had already been weakened by years of mismanagement before this crisis struck.

但是，不要认为疫情是印度经济增长一落千丈的主要原因。在这场危机爆发之前，由于多年的管理不善，印度经济已经受到削弱。

Figures released by national statisticians at the end of May explain what went wrong. Even before the pandemic properly hit India, in the financial year ending in March, GDP only grew at 4.2%. The sequence of quarterly GDP growth numbers leading up to that point tells a clear story: 7% growth shrunk to 6.2%, then to 5.6%, 5.7%, 4.4% and finally 3.1% in the quarter that ended with the lockdown.

统计学家在五月底发布的数据解释了哪里出了问题。即使在疫情席卷印度之前，在截至今年3月的财年，印度GDP也仅增长了4.2%。从一系列的季度GDP增长数据可以清楚地看出：在封锁前的这个季度，印度GDP增速从7%降至6.2%，然后下降到5.6%、5.7%、4.4%，最后降至3.1%。

What was behind this slowdown? The answer is a lack of investment. Investment shrank by almost 3% over the year. Until then, India hadn’t seen investment shrink for almost two decades, according to World Bank data. (It grew about 10% in 2018-19.) And this shrinkage began well before the pandemic — in April 2019. In India, the virus struck an economy with pre-exsting conditions.

经济放缓的原因是什么?答案是缺乏投资。投资在这一年萎缩近3%。世界银行的数据显示，在此之前，印度的投资已经有近20年没有出现下降。(在2018- 2019年增长了约10%)。这种萎缩于2019年4月（早在疫情爆发之前）就开始了。在印度，新冠疫情打击了已经出现问题的经济。

This should all be enough to sober any government. Yet, policymakers in New Delhi seem to be oddly sanguine. On Tuesday, they posted a cheerful update praising their “prompt policy measures” and touting an “increase in economic activity.” It’s true that May looked like a better month than April, when the lockdown was at its height. But pretty much every indicator for May 2020 is in the red when compared to May 2019. And most analysts believe any recovery will now take two years or so, rather than a couple of months.

这一切应该足以让任何政府清醒过来。然而，新德里的政策制定者似乎出奇地乐观。周二，他们发布了一条令人振奋的消息，称赞他们“及时的政策措施”，并吹捧说“经济活动有所增加”。的确，5月份的经济状况看起来比封锁最严格的4月份要好。但与2019年5月相比，2020年5月的几乎所有指标都出现了赤字。大多数分析师认为，任何复苏都将需要两年左右的时间，而不是几个月。

以下是印度经济时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

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Sridhar G Mandyam

Added to these the hurdles in starting business in India even today is making the foreign investors to hesitate to start their business in India

即使在今天，在印度创业仍存在诸多障碍，使得外国投资者在决定是否在印度投资时犹豫不决

Baruun

New global reality is world economies will be tanking due to outbreak of Covid19 it the bounce back which matters restricting only to an Indian context will be a fake narrative. Things cannot be looked into isolation it is relative context and bounce back in post covid scenario which matters the most.

全球经济将因新冠疫情而遭受重创，脱离全球这个大环境，只谈印度的经济反弹是不成立的，不能孤立地看事情，要看大环境。

Deepak Adyanthaya

I fully agree with the statement. The economy was doing pretty good in 2016-17. Modi must open his eyes.

2016-2017年，印度的经济表现相当不错，莫迪开开眼吧。

IAGARAJAN

Nicely analysed the facts

文章分析得很到位

Jagdip Vaishnav

India Economy was down for a long time even before Lockdown

甚至在封锁之前，印度经济就已经下滑很长一段时间了

Ashok Kumar Verma

If every indian were to work sincerely and pay taxes honestly, corruption would be viped out and the country would progress in leaps and bounds and the economy would recover really fast.

如果每个印度人都认真工作，诚实纳税，腐败将被根除，国家就会突飞猛进，经济也会迅速复苏。

Gopalan Krishnaswamy

Pre COVID slowing economy and post COVID stalled economy.Most of them eke out hand to mouth exstence

疫情爆发之前，印度经济已经放缓，疫情爆发之后，印度经济陷入停滞，大多数人只能勉强糊口

Krishnarao Aamancharla

India should adopt a sensible policy in trade and imports, especially in case of , taking advantages for the nation. It's not the time to search for alternatives. is creating troubles at borders but try to continue trade where is it is expecting gains. Same should be followed by India too.

印度应该在贸易和进口方面采取明智政策，特别是对于，要为国家争取优势。现在不是寻找替代品的时候。在边境制造麻烦，但试图继续进行预期能获利的贸易，印度也应该效仿。

Pravin Modi

It is an incredibly incheritable view somewhat despicable under the current holocaust that has engulfed global economy.

当前疫情席卷全球，全球经济经历浩劫。这种观点令人难以置信，多少有些可鄙。

Caba San

Illiterate Modi-Matric-fail made Indians so POOR in last 6 years by SINKING Indian GDP=0 , 10 Crore Migrant Workers are having only one meal in 3-days.

在过去6年莫迪的领导下，印度人变得如此贫穷，GDP下降为零，1亿农民工3天只能吃一顿饭。

Chamarajanagar Nagaraju

The author of this article do mot believe in cyclical nature of economy of any country let alone India.

这篇文章的作者不相信任何国家的经济都有周期性，更不用说印度了。

Gopal Sethuraman

Very much YES. I presume the decline started long back from 2016, when currency demonetisation was carried out with out proper application of mind.

卢比贬值早在2016年就开始了，当时的“废钞令”是经过深思熟虑后才实施的。

Washikar Rahman Rahman

Yes, with fall in GDP growth rates for 8 consecutive quarters & demand fall, the Economy was going South & Recession had already set in. Covid execarbated the recession deeper & wider

随着连续8个季度GDP增长率下降，需求下降，印度经济正在走下坡路，衰退已经开始。新冠疫情导致经济衰退更加严重。

Prashant

Wrong. India's economy was down in July to Dec last year (H2 2019) but had started bouncing back in Jan - March (Q4, FY 19-20).As a reference, look at the PMI and IIP index numbers in Jan and Feb.

印度经济在去年7月至12月(2019年下半年)有所下滑，但在1月至3月(2019-2020财年第4季度)开始反弹。参考1月和2月的PMI和IIP指数

Yashodhan Patel

Modi government is more of words than action. Every triumph is of their own and failure is linked to previous government. People of India shouldn't forget that it was Dr. Manmohan Singh who steered India out of 2008-09 financial crises.

莫迪政府说得多，做得少。每一次胜利都是他们的功劳，如果失败了，都是前任政府背锅。印度人民不应该忘记，是曼莫汉•辛格带领印度走出了2008-2009年的金融危机。

Sreenivasa Rao

The government’s confidence is inexplicable. It has not done enough to reinvigorate the economy.

印度政府哪来的自信，令人费解，它在重振经济方面做得还不够。

Vaishnsv

Given Indian financial status, we cannot afford a.lockdown.

考虑到印度的财政状况，我们负担不起封城的代价。

NS % 94

not only India every country

不仅仅是印度，每个国家都一样