到9月份，印度确诊病例或达到350万例，印网民：有可能

India could have 35 lakh cases by Sept: IISc study

到9月份，印度确诊病例或达到350万例

BENGALURU: India will have 35 lakh Covid-19 cases, and Karnataka 2.1 lakh, by September 1, says a worst-case scenario projection that an IISc team says is based on the current national trend. The Indian Institute of Science projection says active cases in the country, and in the state, are likely to be 10 lakh and 71,300, respectively, by then. In a better-than-the-current-trend scenario, the country may hit a peak of 20 lakh total cases, 4.75 lakh active, and 88,000 deaths by September 1. And, in the same scenario, Karnataka will have 1.2 lakh total cases, 28,700 active cases and 5,460 deaths.

班加罗尔：IISc（印度科学研究所）小组根据目前的趋势预测，到9月1日，印度的累计确诊病例将达到350万例，卡纳塔克邦将达到21万例。印度科学研究所预测，届时印度和卡纳塔克邦的活跃病例可能分别为100万例和7.13万例。按比当前趋势更好的情况预测，到9月1日，印度的累计确诊病例或达到200万例、活跃病例47.5万例，死亡病例8.8万例；卡纳塔克邦的累计确诊病例或达到12万例、活跃病例2.87万例，死亡病例5460例。

For perspective, as of 7 pm Wednesday, India had 9.4 lakh Covid cases, 3.4 lakh active cases and 24,300 deaths. Worst-case scenario projections show Maharashtra may have 6.3 lakh cases, Delhi 2.4 lakh, Tamil Nadu 1.6 lakh and Gujarat 1.8 lakh cases by September, with active cases roughly 35% of the total. The projections by IISc professors Sashikumar G, Deepak S and their team said India would have 1.4 lakh deaths — of them 25,000 from Maharashtra, 9,700 from Delhi, 8,500 from Karnataka, 6,300 from Tamil Nadu and 7,300 from Gujarat — by September. They project that India is likely to have 1.2 crore cases and 5 lakh deaths by November 1 and 2.9 crore cases and 10 lakh deaths by January 1. Karnataka is estimated to have 7.2 lakh cases and 30,400 deaths by November 1, and 10.8 lakh cases and 78,900 deaths by January 1.

截至周三晚上7时，印度累计确诊病例达到94万例、现存确诊34万例，死亡病例2.43万例。按最坏的情况预测显示，到今年9月，马哈拉施特拉邦的确诊病例或达到63万病例，德里24万例，泰米尔纳德邦16万例，古吉拉特邦18万例，活跃病例约占累计病例的35%。

印度科学研究所教授Sashikumar G、Deepak S和他们的团队预测，到今年9月，印度的死亡病例或达到14万例，其中马哈拉施特拉邦2.5万例，德里9700例，卡纳塔克邦8500例，泰米尔纳德邦6300例，古吉拉特邦7300例。他们预测，到11月1日，印度的累计确诊病例或达到1200例、死亡病例或达到50万例。到2021年1月1日，累计确诊病例或达到2900万例，死亡病例或达到100万例。

截至11月1日，卡纳塔克邦的累计确诊病例或达到72万例，死亡病例或达到3.04万例，到2021年1月1日，该邦的累计确诊病例或达到108万例，死亡病例或达到7.89万例

As per the worse-case scenario, no peak is predicted for India until the end of March 2021, at which time there will be 6.2 crore cases, 82 lakh active cases and 28 lakh deaths.

按照最坏的情况，预计印度在2021年3月底之前不会出现峰值，累计确诊病例或达到6200万例、活跃病例820万例，死亡病例280万例。

The state-wise projections are computed with the parameters of the national trend to compare the performance of the respective state with the national trend. For example, Kerala, Karnataka, UP (and others) have done better than the national trend, whereas Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, MP (and others) have done worse than the national trend.

各邦的预测是按全国趋势的参数计算的，以比较各自邦的情况与全国趋势。例如，喀拉拉邦、卡纳塔克邦、北方邦(和其他邦)的情况比全国趋势要好，而马哈拉施特拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦、国会议员(和其他邦)的情况比全国趋势差。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Johnny Sack

its possible. we are doing way too many tests now, so more cases will come out. dont scare the public for no reason

确实有可能。我们现在做的检测太多了，所以确诊病例更多了。但是不要无缘无故地吓唬公众

Rajesh Asarpota

The tests are needed to see what the reality is -- which may be more than 1Million already - just not pinpointed.. And growing..

要通过检测来了解实际情况，实际确诊病例可能已经超过100万了，只是还没有检测出来。

Stephen Mani

We are doomed. And the stupid Government is still saying 'there is no community transmission of Covid in India'! It is almost as if the people in the Government are living in a parallel universe. I guest the Government used the same logic when they said 'the never entered India'! Without question now, the Modi Government has turned out to be the worst in India's post-independence history.

我们死定了。愚蠢的政府还在说“印度没有出现社区传播”!

政府官员好像生活在一个平行宇宙中。按照同样的逻辑，他们说“从来没有进入印度领土”!

毫无疑问，莫迪政府是独立后最糟糕的政府。

Anantha Prasanna

What a negative news. If calculations are not disclosed this news is nothing but fiction. This news is to scare whom? CORONA-19????

真是个坏消息。

如果没有披露算法，这则消息就是纯属虚构。要吓唬谁啊?

新冠病毒吗 ? ? ? ?

Rajesh Asarpota

If you are hitting 100k every three days - in a month you have 1M. 3 Months - 3M - add to the current data set - you are sitting on 3.5M - Simple Math.

算法很简单，如果每3天新增10万例，1个月新增100万例，3个月新增300万例，到9月份不就有360万例了

Muralidhar Jyoti

Report should be substantiated by proofs.

报告要有证据支持

Rich Tech

35 lakhs by Sep... out of 135 crores.....

Hmmm..... so haphazardly taken decision of locking down country didn't work out.....

Don't worry we will blame Nehru Ji and others... that they didn't develop vaccine....

到9月份，确诊350万例，总人口13.5亿，这说政府草率的封城决定没有奏效。别担心，他们会责怪尼赫鲁等人没有研发疫苗

Biologist

it would be important how the analysis and calculation were done. Who did it? IISc has many departments - which department did the analysis and if possible name? metullurgy department, chemistry department, physics department, material sciences department? Without an authentic name to the prediction, it is hard to believe and this can be considered as a "fake news".

分析和计算过程是很重要的。这是谁预测的?

印度科学研究有许多部门-是哪个部门做了分析，是哪个人做的?

质变系，化学系，物理系，材料科学系?

如果做预测的人都不知道是谁，这个结论就很难让人相信，这可以被视为“假新闻”。

Sain Pries

Only Ambani and Adani are flourishing and becoming prosperous day by day due to the blessing of this Feku government... While the rest of the country is in a deep recession with the collapsed economy...

只有安巴尼和阿达尼家族在莫迪政府的庇佑下蒸蒸日上…除此之外，随着经济崩溃，整个国家都处于严重的衰退之中。

Citizen

the unplanned lockdown and the delayed testing put us here , while our neighbour countries with partial lockdown were able to not get affected like us

印度封城计划不周，检测拖延，所以我们才陷入目前的境地，而我们的邻国只实施了部分封锁，疫情却没有我们严重

Anand Kumar

We are late and complacent. We have done this to ourselves.

我们行动太迟，还沾沾自喜，这是自作自受。

Paresh

My request to you donot publish such nagative information of prediction. These are dispressing news Also cannot acrtain these are compltly wring numbers as the basis n assuption might go wrong. AGAIN REQUEST PLS DO NOT PUBLISH SUCH DIPRESSING ARTICLES

请不要发表这种负面的预测信息，令人沮丧，预测可能出错。再次请求请不要发表这种令人沮丧的文章

Sain Pries

Only whatever is said by the FEKU P.M is right...Else all other research news or articles are fake and farce in this country...

在这个国家，只有莫迪总理说的是对的，其他新闻或文章都是假的…

Pradeep

We do not need the services of the Indian Institute of Science to understand the numbers and projection of Covid 19. We require IISc to help the nation fight Covid in a better way, as applicable to Indian scenario.

我们不需要印度科学研究所来预测疫情，我们需要你们提供建议帮助国家以更好的方式对抗疫情。

Prabhudoss Ramachandran

Our Modiji predicted Mahabharata war took 18 days and the war against Corona will be won in 21 days. Very few questioned his prediction.

莫迪预测只要21天就能控制住疫情，很少有人质疑他的预测。

S S Rajguru

While the world is trying hard for develo the cure and the vaccine for the disease these IISc idiots are making mathematical models to predict how much worse it becomes in coming days. Real white elephants. If the prediction comes out to be wrong people should beat these researchers with shoes.

当全世界都在努力研究治疗方法和疫苗的时候，印度科学研究所的这些白痴们却在研究数学模型来预测未来的情况会变得多么糟糕。如果预测结果是错的，人们就该用鞋子打这些研究人员。

Bandame Lyngdoh

Other foreign university like Oxford are busy with covid vaccine... Our university is soo lacking behind, they teach only A B C till Z, no practical use... Such a pathetic education...

外国大学，比如牛津大学，都忙着研制新冠疫苗…印度的大学太落后了，他们只教英语字母ABC直到Z，一点不实用…我们的教育太可悲了

Muralidhar Jyoti

Considering this report, we should cut the red tape and allow Bharat biotech & other pharma companies to go for last phase human trials of vaccine at a greater speed.

鉴于这个预测，我们应该简化程序，允许巴拉特生物技术公司和其他制药公司以更快的速度进行疫苗最后阶段的人体试验。

Lakshmi Narayanan

Absurd nos.

荒谬

Jagdip Vaishnav

Pray God to protect lives of every one

愿神保佑每个人平安无事

Sanjoy Pandey

But, how to control the Corona pandemic ? Is there any way to do it ?

但是，如何控制疫情呢?有办法吗?

Abrakadabbraa Bk

India already had more than 50 lakh cases. It will hit 25 crores or 40 crores.