India risks ‘Japanification’ as bad loans surge, says Viral Acharya

前印度央行副行长：不良贷款激增，印度面临“日本化”风险

By Anirban Nag

India is witnessing the return of a worrying trend of greater tolerance for loose lending and provisioning practices, which risks putting it on the same path that took Japan to the “lost decade” in the 1990s, former central banker Viral Acharya said.

前央行副行长阿查里亚表示，印度一种令人担忧的趋势卷土重来，即对宽松贷款更加宽容，这可能使印度重蹈日本上世纪90年代“失去的十年”的覆辙。

“Certainty with the Covid shock, and as highlighted in the RBI’s financial stability report, the bad loans are likely to mount to 12%-15% region,” Acharya, who resigned last year as deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said in an interview. “Given all that, Japanification is a serious concern and the way out of it is to raise capital in the financial intermediation sector. The time is now.”

去年辞去印度储备银行副行长职务的阿查里亚在一次采访中表示:“正如印度储备银行金融稳定报告中强调的那样，伴随疫情冲击，印度的不良贷款可能上升至12%-15%。鉴于此，日本化是一个严重的问题，避免的方法是在金融中介部门筹集资金，现在就是时候了。”

The ex-central banker was referring to Japan’s experience in the 1990s when a weak banking and financial sector crippled activity and contributed to a lost decade of sub-par economic growth. The RBI sees the country’s bad-loan ratio swelling to the highest level in more than two decades — to 12.5% by March 2021, the highest level since 1999. If macroeconomic conditions worsen, the ratio may jump to 14.7%, among the highest in major economies.

这位前央行行长指的是日本在上世纪90年代的经历。当时，疲弱的银行和金融部门削弱了日本的经济活动，造成了十年经济增长低于平均水平。印度储备银行预计，到2021年3月，印度不良贷款率将升至12.5%，为20多年来的最高水平。如果宏观经济状况恶化，这一比率可能会跃升至14.7%，在主要经济体中名列前茅。

India’s private banks have been racing to raise capital in recent weeks, while state-run lenders have been laggards. The government has infused Rs 2.6 lakh crore ($34.7 billion) into state-run banks in the last three financial years, more than double that in the previous nine years, but there is no provision for capital infusion in the budget this year.

最近几周，印度的私人银行一直在竞相筹集资金，而国有银行则一直落后。在过去的三个财年里，政府已经向国有银行注入了2.6万亿卢比(合347亿美元)，是过去九年的两倍多，但今年的预算中并没有为注资准备资金。

“Potential output for the economy keeps changing and depends on the health of the financial system,” Acharya said. “The risk of forbearance in the banking sector is back on the horizon.”

阿查里亚说：“经济的潜在产出不断变化，取决于金融体系的健康状况。银行业的耐受风险再度浮现。”

Acharya, who had championed the autonomy of the central bank and health of the state-run banks during his time at the RBI, said India needs to set its public finances in order by conducting big-ticket disinvestments including privatizing lenders, setting up an independent fiscal council to vet the accounts and boost spending on health and infrastructure by curtailing revenue expenditure.

阿查里亚在印度储备银行任职期间，曾倡导中央银行自治和国有银行的健康发展，他说：“印度需要通过大规模减少投资来整顿公共财政，包括将放贷机构私有化，建立独立的财政委员会来审查账目，并通过削减税收支出来增加卫生和基础设施支出。”

He also said the inflation targeting mechanism had worked well for India. As such, there was no need to indulge in any “adventurism” by tweaking or refining the target especially given the fog of uncertainty that has enveloped the economy, he said.

他还表示，通胀目标机制对印度很有效，没有必要沉溺于调整或细化目标的“冒险主义”，尤其是考虑到笼罩在印度经济上空的不确定性迷雾。

以下是印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50444.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

Naynesh Sheth

We are only good in clap, prayers, ringing bells etc, when it's comes to economics we r very bad enough because loan taker are also not serious about paying them back because they do business for themself and not for progress of country.

我们只会鼓掌、祈祷、敲钟等等，但说到经济，我们已经糟透了，贷款方也不积极还款，因为他们是为自己做生意，而不是为了国家的进步。

Yeshwant Pande

Though the situation is similar the results will be totally different because Japan could recover as they are sincere, honest 100 times that of Indian and hard working. We have no such Bad habits We could face n stand 2008 because of presence of a person like Dr.MMS , what these bunch of idiots will do except asking citizens to clap hands, pray god, ring the bells, build some more temple.

虽然情况相似，但结果将完全不同，日本经济可以恢复，因为日本人努力工作，比印度人努力100倍，而我们没有这样优秀的品质。我们能渡过2008年经济衰退，当时靠的是辛格博士这样的总理，现在执政的这些白痴会做什么？除了让公民鼓掌，祈祷，敲钟，大寺修建寺庙之外。

Dillip Patnaik

At this juncture India has to well manage the spread and cure and prevention of Coronavirus. There should be plenty of supply of food supply for the unemployed mass. Once India out of Coronavirus cloud got to spend money on mass training for the industrial production and agriculture production. Central bank can provide easy loans for small and medium scale industries and reval of old industries. Government can spend money on road and bridges and military industries to speed up economy.

当前，印度必须控制疫情的传播，做好防治工作。应该为失业群众提供充足的食品供应。一旦摆脱了疫情的阴霾，印度就开始花钱进行大规模的工业生产和农业生产。中央银行可以为中小企业提供贷款。政府可以投资修建公路、桥梁，发展军事工业，加速经济发展。

Pramendra Khokher

The bad situation only turned worse with the pandemic

糟糕的情况只会随着疫情的持续而变得更糟

Pooja Suvarna

Indian companies need to think global in whatever it does. In other words don”t be a frog in a well, prepare and be frog in a ocean ready to cater to the whole world.

印度企业需要放眼全球。换句话说，不要做井底之蛙，而要做大海里的青蛙，准备好去迎合全世界。

Shri

Most economies including USA, Japan, EU, are all Phus Phus. Dont trust anyone or anything. Always use Brains, Analyze and Do BEST for urself

包括美国、日本、欧盟、在内的大多数经济体都不景气。不要相信任何人或任何事，要常动脑筋，分析问题，做到最好。

Rakshit Karia

When you are out of office everything looks troubled Pathetic selfish losers

照你这么说，自从你卸任后，一切都陷入了麻烦？你是个可怜、自私的失败者

Shri Mahesh

cut all imports. make and buy local. sell all foreign reserves. print and pump 100 lakh crores

减少进口，在本土生产，买本土产品。出售所有外汇储备，注资100万亿卢比

Shri Mahesh

there is massive worldwide depression. dump all previous stuff and start new. be smart

全球都陷入了大萧条，聪明点，放下以前所有的东西，重新开始

Kochar Bipin

The primary cause of the sharp drop in growth and the exponentially growth in NPAs and has been the crazy RBI policy of targeting inflation instead of targeting unemployment over the past decade - this stupid policy has resulted in exporting crores of jobs to East Asia and more recently to Bangladesh - be it electronics, engineering or even house hold goods, textiles, readymades, etc

The Government must immediately reset RBI's goal to achieve a target level of unemployment by end of this fiscal - given the weak social security system, this should be 3-4%. Such a step will boost government tax revenues and pull tens of thousands of firms out of the huge losses inflicted on them by the irrational RBI policies.

印度央行在过去十年里疯狂地以通胀为目标，而不是以降低失业率为目标，这是导致经济增长率急剧下降和不良贷款呈指数级增长的主要原因。这种愚蠢的政策导致了向东亚和最近的孟加拉国输出了大量的工作岗位——无论是在电子产品、工程，还是家用货物、纺织品、成衣等行业

政府必须立即重新设定印度储备银行的目标，以便在本财政年度结束前将失业率控制在目标水平——考虑到薄弱的社会保障体系，失业率应该控制在3-4%。这一举措将增加政府税收收入，并使成千上万的公司摆脱因印度储备银行的不合理政策而造成的巨额损失。

Ashok Agrawal

Mr.Viral talks of targetting inflation, forgetting that it was above 9-10% during UPA2 and he was very much in RBI. Now that inflation has declined to 5-6% during NDA1

他谈到了通胀目标，却忘记了在国大党执政期间通胀率超过9-10%。现在通货膨胀率在人民党第一个任期已经降到了5-6%。

R k

do not worry we have an economist pm and fm.they will resolve all bad loan problem by maneuplate nos.

别担心，我们总理和财政部长都是经济学家，他们将采取措施解决所有不良贷款问题。

Anand Deshpande

Who worry bad loans, we have huge dollar reserve. We can do anything with that. We can get dollar loan from international investors, let there be bad loans in India.

谁担心不良贷款，我们有巨额美元储备，想做什么都行。我们可以从国际投资者那里获得美元贷款，有不良贷款也没事。

Raunak Chakrabarty

Japanification will make a lot of these rich tax evading money laundering businessmen realise how looking out for their selfish interest has come back to bite them in their butts.

日本化将使很多避税洗钱的富商意识到，为自己的私利着想，结果反而会让他们吃苦头。

Manoj Mukhi

What a tragedy. India was waiting for a Corona for big bang reforms done half heartedly. Why the governments don't want to loosen the grip on the economic front still baffles me. We are not proactive reformers. We need a kick on the back to do that.

真是一个悲剧。印度正在等待疫情大爆炸，改革也只是三心二意地进行。我仍然感到困惑，政府为什么不放松对经济的控制。我们不是积极的改革者，要人在背后推一步走一步。

Bobby Panda

India is a Socialist country, meaning Govt owns everything at the end.

印度是一个社会主义国家，这意味着一切都是政府的。

Santosh Bhadbhad

Electing an 8th fail idiot and then expecting him to manage the country by giving 2 hour long bhashans every day, is height of self deception

选了一个8年级就辍学的白痴当总理，然后指望他来管理国家，这是自欺欺人

Binu Pillai

What is the use of criticising a Fake DEGREE Prime Minister who is have an absolute majority power, and who consider himself as the greatest economist in the world????

一个拥有绝对权力、自认为是世界上最伟大经济学家，持假学位的总理，批评他有什么用?