UAE-Israel peace deal: Opportunity for India to acquire a greater role in this strategic backyard

阿联酋-以色列和平协议：为印度在这个战略后院发挥更大作用提供了机会

In the middle of a pandemic, the geopolitics of the world’s most troubled region took a historic turn this week, when the UAE and Israel, under the benevolent gaze of US President Donald Trump, signed an agreement to “normalise” relations. The deal opens up new opportunities for India to play a much larger role in the regional security and stability in the Gulf, where New Delhi enjoys special relations with both Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem.

疫情期间，全球最动荡地区的地缘政治于本周发生了历史性转折，阿联酋和以色列在美国总统唐纳德•特朗普的善意促成下签署了一项关系“正常化”协议。该协议为印度在海湾地区安全与稳定方面发挥更大作用提供了新的机会。印度与阿布扎比和耶路撒冷在海湾地区都有着特殊关系。

The barebones of the deal envisages establishing regular diplomatic relations between the UAE, the rising influential power in the Gulf, and Israel, the “Incredible Hulk” of the region, but a country officially not on speaking terms with most of its Arab neighbours.

协议的基本设想是，在海湾地区正在崛起的影响力大国阿联酋和该地区的“不可思议的巨人”以色列之间建立正常的外交关系，但在官方上，以色列与大多数阿拉伯邻国没有任何关系。

In his first tweet, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed said: ‘During a call with President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, an agreement was reached to stop further Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories. The UAE and Israel also agreed to cooperation and setting a roadmap towards establishing a bilateral relationship.”

在其第一条推特中，王储穆罕默德·本·扎耶德说:“在与特朗普总统和内塔尼亚胡总理的通话中，双方达成了一项协议，以阻止以色列进一步吞并巴勒斯坦领土。阿联酋和以色列也同意合作，并为建立双边关系制定路线图。”

In return, Israel agreed to “suspend” its annexation plans for West Bank that would have been deeply destabilising. Benjamin Netanyahu gets a diplomatic victory, which may be short-lived, given the nature of Israeli politics. But Israel gets a diplomatic and economic opening with the big power in the Gulf, that could open other doors, give its security interests legitimacy and, perhaps, open the door to Middle East peace.

以色列同意“暂停”其吞并约旦河西岸的计划，该计划将严重破坏稳定。本杰明•内塔尼亚胡获得了一次外交胜利，但鉴于以色列政治的性质，这可能是短暂的。以色列在海湾大国的帮助下获得了外交和经济上的开放，这可能会打开其他大门，赋予其安全利益合法性，或许还会打开中东和平的大门。

Many of the other Arab powers, such as Oman, Bahrain, Egypt and Jordan, apart from the big global powers, and India, have welcomed the deal. Iran has slammed it, as have Turkey and Syria. Saudi Arabia has been very quiet.

除世界大国和印度外，其他许多阿拉伯国家，如阿曼、巴林、埃及和约旦，都对该协议表示欢迎。伊朗、土耳其和叙利亚都对其进行了猛烈抨击。沙特阿拉伯一直保持沉默。

Given the close ties between Mohammed bin Zayed and Mohammed bin Salman, it is unthinkable that KSA was not consulted, particularly when the US is the third pole in this agreement. The deal gives UAE pole position as the premier Gulf Arab power, with diplomatic leverage with Israel and the US. “This deal is about positioning in Washington, DC,” said James Dorsey, Gulf and Middle East expert.

鉴于穆罕默德•本•扎耶德和穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼之间的密切关系，很难想象阿联酋没有咨询沙特阿拉伯政府的意见，尤其是在美国是该协议的第三方的情况下。该协议使阿联酋成为海湾地区最重要的阿拉伯国家，拥有对以色列和美国的外交影响力。海湾和中东问题专家詹姆斯•多尔西表示:“该协议事关华盛顿的定位。”

The deal has been a while in the making, said Navdeep Suri, former Indian envoy to the UAE. Several proposals have been made in the past couple of years. The Israeli minister of culture visited Abu Dhabi and wrote a message in Hebrew in the visitors’ book at the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque. That was a sign. In June, Yousef Al Otaiba, MBZ’s close adviser and UAE ambassador to Washington, wrote an oped in Hebrew in the Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, offering normalisation in return for shelving annexation.

前印度驻阿联酋特使纳迪普•苏瑞表示，这项协议酝酿了一段时间。在过去的几年中提出了一些建议。以色列文化部长访问了阿布扎比，并在扎耶德回教堂的游客留言簿上用希伯来语留言，这是一个征兆。今年6月，穆罕默德•本•扎耶德的亲密顾问、阿联酋驻华盛顿大使优素福•奥泰巴在以色列《新消息报》上用希伯来文写了一篇专栏文章，提出以搁置吞并换取两国关系正常化。

Trump earns a diplomatic feather before the November elections, and this may bump up some of his flagging support among the Jews. Even Joe Biden has welcomed the deal. And with Trump asking allies to step up on burden-sharing, it gives UAE and Israel an opening to become bigger players.

在11月的大选之前，特朗普赢得了一份外交荣誉，这可能会提高他在犹太裔选民中的部分支持率。就连乔•拜登也对该协议表示欢迎。随着特朗普要求盟友分担负担，这给阿联酋和以色列提供了一个成为更大玩家的机会。

As Dorsey observes, the UAE and Israel regard Biden warily — after all, Obama was terrible for both countries’ interests — and may prefer a return of Trump. In the region, concerns about Iran is an obvious starting point for UAE and Israel. Iran has been the reason for a quiet thaw between Saudi Arabia and Israel in recent years as well. Israel takes a very hardline view of Iran, but the UAE has nuanced its position in recent months — the Fujairah and Abqaiq attacks in 2019 convinced Abu Dhabi that some engagement with Tehran might be necessary. From the Arab point of view, Iran has to be tamed, but no viable security architecture for the region can be framed without Iran. This means some sophisticated diplomacy and tough steps may be called for.

正如多尔西所观察到的，阿联酋和以色列谨慎地看待拜登——毕竟，奥巴马对两国的利益都不利——而且可能更喜欢特朗普的回归。在该地区，对伊朗的担忧显然是阿联酋和以色列的出发点。伊朗也是近年来沙特阿拉伯和以色列悄然解冻的原因。以色列对伊朗采取了非常强硬的态度，但阿联酋在最近几个月的立场有所不同——2019年富查伊拉和布盖格的袭击让阿布扎比确信，与德黑兰进行一些接触可能是必要的。从阿拉伯的角度来看，必须驯服伊朗，但没有伊朗，该地区就无法构建可行的安全架构。这意味着需要采取一些复杂的外交手段和强硬措施。

India should use this unexpected opportunity to give itself a bigger role in a region which is its strategic backyard. The first step should be to ramp up defence and security relations with UAE. Israel is already a very close defence partner. But India should restart joint exercises with UAE, and even Saudi Arabia. While some work has already happened, India should leverage its economy for a bigger opening in this region. Importantly, India can use its good offices to ensure that any future deal on a regional security framework gives adequate space to Iran, which may be weak but not so weak that it cannot be a hugely disruptive power if it so chooses. And a balance between Shia and Sunni, between Persian and Arab, is key to any sustainable peace.

印度应该利用这个出乎意料的机会，让自己在这个战略后院地区发挥更大的作用。第一步应该是加强与阿联酋的防务和安全关系。以色列已经是一个非常密切的防务合作伙伴。但印度应该重启与阿联酋、甚至沙特的联合军演。尽管一些工作已经开始，但印度应该利用其经济在该地区扩大开放。重要的是，印度可以利用自己的斡旋能力，确保未来任何有关地区安全框架的协议都能给伊朗足够的空间。伊朗可能很弱，但也不至于弱到不能成为一个具有巨大破坏性的大国。而什叶派和逊尼派、波斯人和阿拉伯人之间的平衡，是实现任何可持续和平的关键。

The US may be a pre-eminent power in the Gulf-ME, but Russia has made a space for itself, spending a lot less money. In recent years, has indicated its willingness to play a larger role in this region, and is close to both UAE and Israel and, increasingly, Saudi Arabia. India should make its moves before this market and this extended neighbourhood come under the sphere of influence.

对“海湾-中东国家”而言，美国或许是一个超级大国，俄罗斯在该地区的花费少多了。近年来，已表示愿意在该地区发挥更大的作用，并与阿联酋、以色列和沙特阿拉伯保持着密切联系。印度应该在该地区归入势力范围之前采取行动。

Pakistan could be collateral damage "Islamabad has allowed its stand on Kashmir to alienate its friends in the Gulf. As Suri says, "They don't seem to realise that playing the Muslim card and seeking political support in the name of pan-Islamic solidarity no longer works." On terrorism and extremism, Pakistan is part of the problem, not the solution. It's no longer seen as a factor of peace in Afghanistan.

ysl堡在克什米尔问题上的立场疏远了它在海湾地区的朋友。正如苏瑞所说，“他们似乎没有意识到，打msl牌和以泛ysl团结的名义寻求政治支持已经不再管用了。”在恐怖主义和极端主义问题上，巴基斯坦是问题的一部分，而不是解决方案，它不再被视为阿富汗和平的因素。

A deal that could, if played right, open the doors for a changed geopolitical arrangement in the Middle East should have a stronger Indian footprint.

如果处理得当，该协议可能为中东地缘政治格局的改变打开大门，印度的影响力应该会更大。

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50602.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

Karthik

First of all, be nice to all your neighbors. 2ndly, pls try to pull billion of populations out of poverty. 3rdly, influence the world.No.1 and No.2 are important to Indian people.

首先，要与邻为善。第二，请努力让十亿人口脱贫。第三，影响世界。对印度人来说，第1和第2点更重要。

Narasimhan Bangalore

It’s possible for India being approached or getting involved in the middle east situation positively as it has good relations with both the countries! Only point of contention is wait for the approach but never poke your nose!

印度有可能被拉去调解中东局势，因为印度和这两个国家的关系都很好!!

但是不要多管闲事，等别人叫了再去！

Nasir Ali Zaidi

At the moment the deal only proves beneficial to Trump, bolstering his sagging electoral chances in Nov. presidential election as the deal will consolidate the jews voters. Its long term impact will take some time to emerge . But it is certain that Saudi Arabia gave its backing to the agreement .

目前，该协议只对特朗普有利，增强了他在11月总统大选中取胜的机会，因为该协议将拉拢犹太裔选民。该协议的长期影响需要一段时间才能显现。但可以肯定的是，沙特阿拉伯对该协议表示了支持。

Pankaj Sharma

Put Pakistan in the dog house.

巴基斯坦引起了公愤

V K Gupta

Let us await US election and then decide.

等美国大选结束，再做决定吧。

Varadan Atur

BTW, where's in all this ?

顺便说一句，这里有什么事儿?

Ramesh Bhide

wait and watch

拭目以待

B Purniah

Though the deal is announced, it may take some time before it fully comes into force.

尽管该协议已经宣布，但可能还需要一段时间才能完全生效。

Sushil Seth

This is the personal victory of Trump who can tell his voters that he is trying to bring peace & make them friend after living in animosity for decades & we should welcome it.

这是特朗普的个人胜利，他可以告诉他的选民，在双方经历了几十年的仇恨生活之后，他正在努力为他们带来和平，让他们成为朋友，我们应该欢迎该协议。

Omprakash Sharan

approach to grab Land and investment in small Nations for made infrastructure and gradually to rule small countries as it has started in Pakistan, Nepal, Srilanka etc. India is becoming problems for and on going projects which may get stopped because of Boarder issues. US, UAE looks for it's Market in South East Asia. India is only the country which can fulfill needs of US & UAE. In this continuing Global Situations India is getting threats from, Nepal Pakistan, in the name of Boarder issues and it's becoming a big threat on our Economy in the name of Defense.

在小国抢占土地，投资建设基础设施，然后逐渐统治小国，比如在巴基斯坦、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡等国。

印度正在成为的障碍，正在进行的项目可能会因为边界问题而停止。

美国、阿联酋在东南亚寻找市场。印度是唯一能满足美国和阿联酋需求的国家。

在这种持续的全球局势下，印度正受到来自尼泊尔、巴基斯坦和的威胁

Sanket Verma

But why Palestinians are against this ??

为什么巴勒斯坦人反对该协议?

Damodar Biswal

The deal is good for global peace.

该协议对全球和平有利。

Chandra

Well said. This is critical for India to become a regional and global super power. Trade always goes hand in hand with Military might. India needs US and UAE help to patrol and control Arabian sea and its influence. Control and restrict BRI for free kashmir.

说得好。这对印度成为地区和全球超级大国至关重要。贸易总是与军事实力相辅相成。印度需要美国和阿联酋的帮助来控制阿拉伯海，控制和限制“一带一路”，争取解放克什米尔。

Chandra Babu Neethipudi

Atleast some good sense prevailed. Peace is very much required in this region. Iran particularly and other warring factions should come out of religion stigma and put humanity atop thereby facilitating peace in the region. Many children, women are suffering a lot.

至少理智占了上风，这个地区非常需要和平。特别是伊朗和其他交战派系应该摆脱搁置宗教分歧，把人道放在首位，促进该地区的和平。

Chandrasekaran Krishnamurthy

UAE-Israel peace deal is good.Iran cannot be underestimated,need caution.. India cashing the present scenario to sideline with its greater capacity in the Asian region will be an added strength.

阿以和平协议是好事。但不能低估伊朗，需要谨慎点…印度应该利用其在亚洲地区的更大影响力，将边缘化。

Quhesobi

Feku, aka Surrender Modi, should put our own house in order before he tells other country what to do. After Feku himself ignites border disputes with all our neighbours, he is not in a position to preach others.

莫迪，在告诉其他国家该怎么做之前，应该先把我们自己的国家整顿好。莫迪挑起了印度与所有邻国的边界争端，他没有资格向其他国家说教。

MassiveNPAisComing

Pakistan is a fraud illegal country. Supported for the time being by . India needs to create a plan to bring back Pakistan and get those lands. Pakis are having a secret military pact with Iran and Turkey to destabilise the region.

巴基斯坦是非法国家，暂时得到的支持。印度应该制定计划，夺回巴基斯坦，夺回这些土地。巴基佬正与伊朗和土耳其秘密签订军事协议，以破坏该地区的稳定。