India faces dwindling policy options after record GDP slump

GDP下滑创纪录后，印度面临的政策选择越来越少

NEW DELHI: India’s record contraction last quarter sets back economic progress by several years and puts Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious targets of doubling the economy’s size to $5 trillion almost out of reach.

新德里：上个季度，印度经济出现创纪录的萎缩，使经济发展倒退了好几年，印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪雄心勃勃的目标——将经济规模扩大一倍至5万亿美元——也几乎无法实现。

The 23.9% decline in gross domestic product in the June quarter from a year ago -- the biggest of major economies tracked by Bloomberg -- prompted banks like Nomura Holdings Inc to downgrade their full-year forecasts for this year to -10.8%. It also shifts the focus back to the government and central bank on what steps can be taken to spur growth.

印度上季度GDP较上年同期下降了23.9%，野村控股等银行将印度本财年的预期下调至-10.8%。这也将人们的注意力重新转向政府和央行，即可以采取哪些措施来刺激经济增长。

What’s the impact on India’s long-term growth?

这对印度的长期增长有何影响?

In the past, India has managed growth rates of more than 8%, but that’s steadily eased in recent years following a crisis among shadow banks that hit lending and consumption in the economy. The economic damage now caused by the coronavirus pandemic will last well beyond the current outbreak. Banks are cautious about lending, fearing a jump in bad loans, while businesses have curbed borrowing and investments, dragging down demand.

过去，印度的经济增长率一直在8%以上，但在影子银行危机打击了放贷和消费之后，这一增速近年来稳步放缓。目前新冠疫情造成的经济损失将持续到后疫情时代。银行对放贷持谨慎态度，担心不良贷款激增，而企业则抑制借贷和投资，拖累需求。

Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Mumbai, sees the pandemic leaving behind an “economic scar,” with potential growth falling to 5% from 6% before the virus outbreak.

汇丰控股驻孟买的首席印度经济学家班达里认为，疫情会给印度经济留下一道“伤疤”，潜在增长率将从疫情爆发前的6%降至5%。

Deutsche Bank AG’s chief India economist, Kaushik Das estimates the potential growth rate could drop to 5.5%-6% from about 6.5%-7% earlier, though foreign inflows could continue as nominal GDP growth recovers toward double-digits.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)首席印度经济学家达斯(Kaushik Das)估计，潜在增长率可能从此前的6.5%-7%降至5.5%-6%，不过随着名义GDP增长恢复到两位数，外资流入可能会继续。

Past recession experience suggests “it typically takes roughly five to 10 years for real economic activity to reach its former peak level,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India (SBI).

印度国家银行(SBI)首席经济学家Soumya Kanti Ghosh称，过去的衰退经历表明，"实质经济活动通常需要大约5 - 10年才能达到先前的峰值水平。"

What does it mean for job creation and poverty?

这对创造就业和贫困人口意味着什么?

Even at 5% growth rates, India’s economy wasn’t expanding fast enough to generate jobs for the more than 10 million young people who enter the workforce each year. The pandemic has now destroyed jobs and pushed millions of people into poverty.

即使增长率为5%，印度经济的扩张速度也不足以为每年进入劳动力市场的1000多万年轻人创造就业机会。目前，新冠疫情摧毁了就业，并使数百万人陷入贫困。

The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a private think tank, estimates that as many as 18.9 million salaried Indians, or 21% of the overall workforce, lost their jobs between April and July, along with nearly 7 million daily wage earners -- like hawkers, roadside vendors and construction workers.

私营智库印度经济监测中心(CMIE)估计，今年4月至7月期间，失业人数多达1,890万，占印度劳动力总数的21%，同时失业的还有小贩、路边摊贩和建筑工人等近700万日薪工人。

The World Bank estimates that nearly 12 million Indians will be pushed into abject poverty in a country where over a fifth earn less than $2 a day.

世界银行估计，将近1200万印度人将被推入赤贫状态，超过五分之一的印度人每天的收入不足2美元。

What can the central bank do?

印度央行能做什么?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has carried the bulk of the stimulus burden for the economy. It’s cut interest rates by 115 basis points, pumped money into the financial system through liquidity operations like bond purchases and Operation Twist, and transferred billions of dollars in dividends to the government. On Monday, the central bank took additional steps to support the bond market, giving lenders more leeway to hold government securities without marking them to current lower prices and announcing plans to pump in billions of dollars in extra funds.

印度储备银行(RBI)承担了刺激经济的大部分负担，将利率下调了115个基点，通过购买债券和扭转操作等流动性操作向金融系统注入资金，并将数十亿美元的股息转移到政府。周一，央行采取了更多措施支持债券市场，为银行持有政府债券提供了更大的空间，而无需将债券价格标在当前较低的水平，并宣布了额外注入数十亿美元资金的计划。

When it comes to conventional monetary policy, there’s limited scope to do more. Banks have been slow to pass on the RBI’s rate cuts to consumers, mainly because of the overhang of bad debt, leaving credit growth languishing. And with inflation exceeding the 6% upper limit of its target band, the central bank is taking a more cautious approach to easing.

在传统货币政策方面，能做的余地有限。银行迟迟没有将印度央行的降息举措的好处传递给消费者，主要原因是坏账积压，导致信贷增长乏力。随着通货膨胀率超过其目标区间6%的上限，央行正在采取更加谨慎的宽松政策。

What fiscal options are available?

有哪些财政选择?

The government outlined Rs 21 lakh crore ($282 billion) worth of measures to support the economy through the virus crisis, but most of the steps were focused on providing credit support to small and mid-sized businesses rather than giving direct assistance, like tax cuts, to consumers to boost demand in the near term.

政府公布了价值21万亿卢比(2820亿美元)的刺激措施，以支持经济度过新冠危机，但大多数措施的重点是向中小企业提供信贷支持，而不是向消费者提供直接援助(如减税)，以在短期内提振需求。

Some economists argue that the government should provide a universal basic income grant and the RBI should finance the fiscal deficit, which is expected to reach more than double the government’s original target of 3.5% of GDP this year. The government though is wary of the implications on its credit rating at a time when it’s trying to open the bond market to more foreigners.

一些经济学家认为，政府应该提供全民基本收入补助，而央行应该为财政赤字提供资金，预计今年的财政赤字将达到政府最初设定的占GDP 3.5%的目标的两倍多。不过在试图向更多外国人开放债券市场之际，政府担心这对其信用评级的影响。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50710.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

Rajesh Kumar

stop -ve propaganda, my friend got 3 job offer in two weeks time. Job market is getting better every day.

我的朋友在两周内找到三份工作，就业市场每天都在好转。

Ravi Kumar

Nothing to worry about GDP, once normal situation comes every thing will be settled. India having people and demand.

不用担心GDP，一旦形势恢复正常，一切问题都能迎刃而解，印度人口多，需求大。

RS Maiya

This has happened all over world. No need to get depressed. Only thing is government RBI should keep an eye on wilful defaulters.

全世界都一样，没必要沮丧。唯一需要做的是，印度储备银行应该密切关注那些故意违约的人。

JAP

Without COVID, India would have still been inching towards -1% growth.

就算没有爆发疫情，印度的经济增长率仍将逐步跌至近-1%。

Atul Patel

planned to put all world economy to scrap while they go in positive. we foolish indians still keep on buying goods and kill economy even more.

实现正增长，而世界经济陷入困境。我们愚蠢的印度人仍然继续购买货，进一步扼杀了印度本土经济。

Mudi Ji

Modi and COVID are in a tight race who can destroy economy first and bhakts are cheering them with thaali.

莫迪和新冠病毒在激烈竞争，看谁能先摧毁印度经济

srini

When RaGa warned exactly about this 6 months ago, realpappus mocked him.

6个月前，拉胡尔就发出了警告，真正的傻子却嘲笑他。

Roshan Amex

I still dont understand why we have to worry about the falling GDP. People are buying cars,bikes and homes which means the economy is good. In India everything was informal now because of Modi everything is formal.

我仍不明白我们为什么要担心GDP的下降。人们仍在购买汽车、自行车和住房，这说明经济状况很好。

Raj Narayan

Forget about 5 trillion economy, this govt will be succeeded in its real intention of handing over India to a few gujuraties. Earlier East Indian govt looted for 400 years and now Gujuraties will do that for next several centuries.

忘了5万亿美元经济体目标吧，这届印度政府的真正意图是把国家交给少数几个古吉拉特人。早些时候，东印度政府掠夺了400年，在接下来的几个世纪里古吉拉特人将这样做。

Imtiyaz Mod

Indians got what they deserved. Making a chaiwala PM of the country will surely destroy the country as it has been happening.

印度人罪有应得。选了一个卖茶人当总理肯定会毁了这个国家。

Abhishek Sharma

Ambanis wealth increased by 35% in 2020 and Indias GDP fell down to -24%.

安巴尼的财富在2020年增长了35%，而印度的GDP却降了24%。

Dr Mohammad Khan

Modi has destroyed the economy of India even before COVID-19.

在新冠疫情发生之前，莫迪就已经摧毁了印度经济。

Dan Adams

When you put an uneducated chaiwala at the helm of the largest de ocracy, don’t expect anything better.

你们选了一个没文化的卖茶人执掌印度这个最大的民*国家，别指望会有更好的结果。

Dreet

Now you know why India needs MMS Rajan and Chidambaram today

现在你们知道为什么印度需要辛格和奇丹巴拉姆了吧

Indian

Still bhakts are happy with Feku.

尽管如此，支持者们仍对莫迪感到满意。

Rene Fernandez

We should not be stupid and blind in our worship of political leaders in our own country !!

我们不应该盲目崇拜自己的政治领袖!!

Feku Bhai

CONGRESS IS BETTER THAN BJP

国大党比人民党更好

Trishul

Pakistan's GDP is 5.5%, Bangladesh GDP is 6.7%, GDP is 3.5% and Indian GDP is Minus -23.9%. So bhakts will now know how smart is their beloved leader.

巴基斯坦的GDP增长率是5.5%，孟加拉国是6.7%，是3.5%，而印度是-23.9%。对比一下，支持者们就知道他们敬爱的领袖有多聪明了。