GDP Truth: No, India didn't do better than US did

GDP真相：印度的表现不比美国好

The Indian economy contracted nearly a quarter in April-June, shrinking more than expected. After recording the first GDP contraction in more than 40 years, India's Q1 performance is now eliciting different responses from different quarters.

印度经济在4 - 6月萎缩了近四分之一，幅度超过预期。在经历了40多年来的首次GDP萎缩后，印度第一季度的表现引发了各领域的不同反应。

Ever since the numbers were out, a war of words has been raging on social media, particularly Twitter which is abuzz with the hashtag #GDPTruth. One camp says India did better than peers including the US in June quarter, while the other camp rubbishes all such claims.

自从数据公布后，在社交媒体上爆发了一场激烈的口水战，尤其是推特上以#GDPTruth为标签的热议甚嚣尘上。一个阵营表示，印度在6月当季的表现好于包括美国在内的其他国家，而另一个阵营则对这些说法不屑一顾。

One particularly misleading number-play was on the forefront — that US GDP contracted 32 per cent, while India only contracted 23.9 per cent in the June quarter.

最引人误解的数据是，美国GDP萎缩32%，而印度在6月份的季度仅萎缩23.9%。

Many on Twitter seemed to have bought into the narrative that India performed better compared to its peers, contracting much less in the June quarter. While this could not have been farther from the truth, some established media names also fell for the misleading statistics.

Twitter上的许多人似乎都相信这样一种说法，即印度的表现比其他国家更好，在6月当季的收缩要小得多。虽然这与事实相差甚远，但一些知名媒体也被这些误导性的统计数据所误导。

There are still articles online that are misrepresenting global GDP statistics. Some of them even feature photoshopped pictures that were doing the rounds on Twitter and WhatsApp. The misleading comparisons even got featured by some bigshot news channels, the videos of which are still up, uncorrected.

网上仍有文章歪曲全球GDP数据。其中一些甚至贴出PS过的图片，这些图片在Twitter和WhatsApp上广为流传。这种误导性的对比甚至出现在一些知名新闻频道上，这些频道的视频至今仍未更正。

All this seems to have irked economic commentator Vivek Kaul enough to write a blog post explaining why this comparison — US GDP contraction of 32 per cent versus India’s 23.9 per cent in the June quarter – is absolutely wrong.

这一切让经济评论员维韦克•考尔感到厌烦，他写了一篇博客文章，解释这种比较——美国第二季度GDP萎缩32%，而印度萎缩23.9%——是绝对错误的。

Here's the deal

"Different countries use different approaches when calculating GDP," explains Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, CARE Ratings. "We do year-on-year (YoY), while several others do quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Hence, while we compare Q1FY20 with Q1FY19, other countries may compare Q2 (i.e. April-June) with Q1 (Jan-March) after removing the seasonality factor," he adds.

CARE Ratings的首席经济学家Madan Sabnavis解释说:“不同的国家使用不同的方法来计算GDP。我们与上年同期数据相比，而其他国家与上季度数据相比。因此，当我们将2020财年第一季度与2019财年第一季度进行比较时，其他国家可能会在去除季节性因素后将第二季度(即4 - 6月)与第一季(1 - 3月)进行比较。”

That’s where the difference lies in how India and the US report GDP growth. In India, GDP growth for a quarter is calculated by comparing to the same quarter the year before, a YoY comparison, which puts India’s GDP contraction at 23.9 per cent for the June quarter.

这就是印度和美国报告GDP增长方式的不同之处。在印度，季度GDP增长是通过与上年同期的比较来计算的，与去年同期相比，印度今年第二季度GDP萎缩了23.9%。

On the other hand, the US does a QoQ comparison, and then annualises the figure. Meaning: GDP for a quarter is compared to the quarter before it. So they assumed that this quarter's fall would continue at the same rate for the next three quarters, which resulted in an estimated contraction of 32 per cent for the US economy on an annualised basis.

另一方面，美国则与上一季度比较，然后按年计算。一个季度的GDP与前一个季度的比较。因此，他们假设，这个季度的下降速度将在接下来的三个季度继续保持不变，结果得出美国经济按年率计算收缩32%。

If they had done it QoQ, the comparable figure of contraction for the US economy would be 9.1 per cent, according to a tweet by Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist, IMF.

IMF首席经济学家吉塔•戈皮纳斯在twitter上表示，如果按季度计算，美国经济的可比萎缩数据将为9.1%。

"These are two completely different measures — they cannot be compared. One compares what happened in this quarter to the previous quarter (the US 32 per cent) and the other compares what happened this quarter to the same quarter in the previous year (US 9 per cent and India 24 per cent),” explains Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics, JNU.

尼赫鲁大学经济学教授Jayati Ghosh解释道：“这是两种完全不同的衡量标准，无法进行比较。一种是将本季度的情况与上季度比较(美国萎缩32%)，另一种是将本季度的情况与去年同期比较(美国萎缩9%，印度萎缩24%)”

Reetika Khera, Professor of Economics, IIT-D, believes that such comparisons are primarily being made to shield the government from criticism for its handling of the pandemic and the lockdown. "Such ostrich behaviour is not going to help us," she adds.

印度理工学院的经济学教授Reetika Khera认为，这样的比较主要是为了使政府免受外界对疫情处理和封锁的批评。“这种逃避现实的鸵鸟行为对我们没有帮助，”她补充道。

The importance of knowing official data sources and having the ability to verify data independently cannot be understated. "As one may not be familiar with data reporting systems of all the countries, it is better to use the numbers put out by IMF, World Bank, The Economist or CEIC," said R Nagaraj, professor at IGIDR.

了解官方数据来源和拥有独立数据核查能力的重要性不容低估。IGIDR教授R Nagaraj表示:“由于人们可能不熟悉所有国家的数据报告系统，最好使用国际货币基金组织、世界银行、《经济学家》或亚洲经济数据库发布的数据。”

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50726.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

Shaleen Nath

The INDIAN economy grew 0.7% in the last quarter... trading economics . com...

印度经济上个季度增长了0.7%……

P K Sahu Sahu

In the current turbulent times it is meaningless QoQ comparison of GDP of countries in turbulent times. Did you forget that in the earlier quarter, Jan-Mar, India was the top performer? Among G20 economies, those that introduced stringent lockdowns measures earliest saw the largest contractions in GDP in the first quarter of 2020: (by minus 9.8%), and France and Italy (minus 5.3%, in both countries).

GDP also fell sharply in Germany (by minus 2.2%), Canada (minus 2.1%) and the United Kingdom (minus 2.0%).

GDP also contracted in Brazil (minus 1.5%), the United States and Korea (minus 1.3%, in both countries) and Mexco (minus 1.2%).

The contraction was less pronounced in Indonesia (minus 0.7%), Japan (minus 0.6%) and Australia (minus 0.3%).

India (0.7%) and Turkey (0.6%) were the only two G20 economies recording positive growth in the first quarter of 2020.

在当前动荡时期，按季度比较各国的GDP是没有意义的。难道你们忘了在1月至3月的前一个季度，印度的GDP表现是最好的吗?在20国集团经济体中，最早采取严格封锁措施的国家在2020年第一季度GDP出现了最大的萎缩:(-9.8%)，法国和意大利(两个国家均为-5.3%)。

德国(-2.2%)、加拿大(-2.1%)和英国(-2.0%)的GDP也大幅下降。

巴西(- 1.5%)、美国和韩国(- 1.3%)以及墨西哥(- 1.2%)的GDP也出现了萎缩。

印尼、日本和澳大利亚的收缩程度较低，分别为-0.7%、-0.6%和-0.3%。

印度(0.7%)和土耳其(0.6%)是20国集团中仅有的两个在2020年第一季度实现正增长的经济体。

Manoj Mishra

The article explains very well the difference in computation of quarterly GDP numbers by different countries (YoY vs QoQ) and why we should use the numbers put out by the international organisations to understand the impact on various countries.

On the other hand, with the most stringent lockdown imposed in the country, it was to be expected. Even the Unlocking, which is being introduced in phases (and perhaps reluctantly) will not help in getting our GDP back anytime soon.

Even the robust performance in the Agri sector during Q1 has not helped much, as after all this sector contributes just 15% of the GDP!

这篇文章很好地解释了不同国家在计算季度GDP数据(YoY vs QoQ)上的差异，以及为什么我们应该使用国际组织的数据来理解其对不同国家的影响。另一方面，由于印度实行了最严格的封锁，这也在意料之中。即使是分阶段(或许是不情愿地)推出的“解封”政策，也无法在短期内帮助我们恢复GDP。即使是农业部门在第一季度的强劲表现也没有起到多大作用，毕竟这个部门只贡献了GDP的15% !

Thangboi Haokip

The most incompetent govt. India has ever had in her history. Failed in all areas of growth - economy, law and order, Covid-19, national security.

本届政府是印度史上最无能的政府。经济、法律、秩序、新冠肺炎、国家安全、经济增长，方方面面都没处理好。

SkyWalker

The first fatal blow on our economy was demonetization the last was extended lockdown. We are hurtling into a abyss

对印度经济的第一个致命打击是“废钞令”，最近一个是延长封锁。我们正在坠入深渊

Abhijit Biswas

Severe lockdown did not serve the purpose (some people think, it saved lives - How many people died when the virus has spread rampantly?), middleclass people suffered most - and there is no respite for them.

严格封锁没有起到作用(一些人认为，它挽救了生命——当病毒疯狂传播时，有多少人死亡?)，中产阶级遭受了最大的痛苦——而且他们没有得到喘息的机会。

Madhukar Malhotra

And who has been electing the leader's since 1947 who have looted the country .

自1947年以来，印度选的领导人都只会洗劫国家。

Shantanu Bapuli

India implemeted lockdown to save life where as other countries had just partial lockdown . We gain lot in term of saving life and

印度实行封锁是为了拯救生命，而其他国家只是实行部分封锁。我们拯救了很多人。

Vasudevan C

I clearly see what will happen in the next year. Due to relative growth, next year will be growing faster due to low base. Because of this, modi and his dumb bhakts will start thum chest saying modi did good job in bring back the economy. But lets see how bihar people react for this kind of worst lockdown.

我预见到了明年会发生什么。因为比较基数较低，明年GDP增长将更快，为此，莫迪和他的支持者们会开始捶胸，说莫迪在恢复经济方面做得很好

TP Pradhan

India had the most stringent lockdown in the world, US did not have any major lockdown. Without any economic activity so to speak how can it be better

印度实施了全世界最严格的封锁，美国没有实施任何重大的封锁。没有展开任何经济活动，印度的表现怎么可能会更好

Krishna

Well you can simply show that the economy is doing well by printing more money and distributing it free to people. That's what many western countries have done. India has resisted it so far. Currencies of many countries have to depreciate globally owing to this. There is a timebomb ticking. Hope India takes a measured approach. If you print more money, it might spell doom for the country.

可以通过印更多的钱并免费分发给人们来证明经济运行良好。许多西方国家就是这么做的。

到目前为止，印度一直在抵制这种做法。因此，许多国家的货币不得不在全球范围内贬值，一个定时炸弹在滴答作响。

希望印度采取慎重的做法。如果多印钞票，可能会给这个国家带来厄运。

Nachiket Katha

Modi excels in destroying economy with combination of ignorance and arrogance with likes of demo, botched up GST and now this senseless lockdown with no committement to open up economy like rest of the world.

莫迪擅长破坏经济，他无知傲慢，实施了废钞令，商品和服务税，还有愚蠢的封锁，没有像其他国家一样开放经济。

Kavi Tanna

Actually it is Indians who failed. Even with lockdown they failed to listen to govt warnings. Failure to obey social distancing, using of PPE products, etc. is leading to a surge in cases.

实际上是印度人失败了。即使实施了封锁，他们也没有听取政府的警告，不遵守社交距离、不戴口罩等等，导致病例激增。

Shri

Lets invest massively in Infrastructure, Healthcare, Education, Real Estate, Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation. SKY is limit for Indians. Lets go engage WORLDWIDE, Desis

大举投资基础设施、医疗、教育、房地产、先进制造业和创新。对印度人来说，天空才是极限。

Shri

Nonsense. Most economies including India, Amrika, will lose 50% or more.

无稽之谈。包括印度、美国和在内的大多数经济体将损失50%或更多。

Som Nath Sharma

India has not done well economically lately. Let's marshal our energies to stop the decline and strive fo better future unitedly. We need a herculean effort to reverse the fall.

印度最近经济表现不佳。让我们集中力量，共同阻止衰退，为更好的未来而奋斗。我们需要付出巨大的努力来扭转颓势。