Fall in GDP alarming; time for bureaucracy to take meaningful action: Raghuram Rajan

拉古拉姆•拉詹：印度GDP下降令人担忧，官方机构是时候采取有意义的行动了

NEW DELHI: Terming the 23.9 per cent fall in the economic growth in June quarter alarming, former Reserve Bank governor Raghuram Rajan has said bureaucracy should come out of complacency and take meaningful action.

新德里：印度前央行行长拉古拉姆•拉詹认为6月当季印度GDP下降23.9%令人担忧，他表示，官僚机构应采取有意义的行动。

The current crisis requires a more thoughtful and active government, he said, adding "unfortunately, after an initial burst of activity, it seems to have retreated into a shell."

他说，当前的危机需要一个更深思熟虑、更积极的政府，并补充说，“不幸的是，在最初积极行动之后，政府似乎已经退缩到了壳里。”

"The sharp decline in economic growth should alarm us all. The 23.9 per cent contraction in India (and the numbers will probably be worse when we get estimates of the damage in the informal sector) compares with a drop of 12.4 per cent in Italy and 9.5 per cent in the United States, two of the most COVID-19-affected advanced countries," Rajan wrote in a post on his LinkedIn page.

拉詹在其领英页面上写道：“经济增长的急剧下滑给我们所有人敲响了警钟。印度GDP萎缩了23.9%(如果我们将非正规部门的损失计算在内，情况可能会更糟)相比之下，两个受疫情影响最严重的发达国家意大利和美国的降幅分别为12.4%和9.5%。”

He further said the bureaucracy needs to "be frightened out of their complacency and into meaningful activity. If there is a silver lining in the awful GDP numbers, hopefully it is that."

他进一步表示，官僚机构需要“摒弃自满情绪，采取有意义的行动”。这是拯救糟糕的GDP数据的一线希望。”

Rajan, currently a professor at the University of Chicago, said the COVID-19 pandemic is still raging in India, so discretionary spending, especially on high-contact services like restaurants, and the associated employment, will stay low until the virus is contained.

目前在芝加哥大学担任教授的拉詹表示，新冠肺炎疫情仍在印度肆虐，因此在疫情得到控制之前，可自由支配的支出将保持在较低水平，特别在像餐馆这样的高接触性服务方面，以及与之相关的就业。

The eminent economist pointed out that the government's reluctance to do more today seems partly because it wants to conserve resources for a possible future stimulus.

这位杰出的经济学家指出，政府今天不愿采取更多行动的部分原因似乎是，它希望为未来可能的刺激计划保存资源。

"This strategy is self-defeating," he opined.

他认为：“这种策略会弄巧成拙。”

Emphasising on the importance of government relief or support in the current scenario, Rajan said, "Without relief measures, the growth potential of the economy will be seriously damaged."

在强调当前形势下政府救济或支持的重要性时，拉詹说:“如果没有救济措施，经济的增长潜力将受到严重损害。”

He said Brazil, which has spent tremendously on relief, is seeing a much lower downgrade to medium term growth than India. "So, government officials who hold out the possibility of a stimulus when India finally contains the virus are underestimating the damage from a more shrunken and scarred economy at that point," Rajan noted.

他说，巴西在救济方面投入了大量资金，中期增长的降级幅度比印度低得多。那些认为在印度最终遏制住病毒的时候可能会采取刺激措施的政府官员，低估了印度经济萎缩和伤痕累累的程度。”

Citing an example, Rajan said if one thinks of the economy as a patient, relief is the sustenance the patient needs while on the sickbed and fighting the disease.

拉詹举例说，如果把经济看成病人，救济就是病人躺在病床上与疾病作斗争时所需要的食物。

"Without relief, households skip meals, pull their children out of school and send them to work or beg, pledge their gold to borrow, let EMIs and rent arrears pile up. Essentially, the patient atrophies, so by the time the disease is contained, the patient has become a shell of herself," he noted.

他说：“没有救济，各家各户吃不上饭，会让孩子辍学，让他们去工作或乞讨，用自己的黄金抵押借款，拖欠的按揭和租金堆积如山。基本上，病人会虚脱，当病情得到控制时，病人已经变成了一个躯壳。””

The former RBI governor further said if one thinks of economic stimulus as a tonic, "when the disease is vanquished, it (stimulus)can help the patient get out of her sickbed faster. But if the patient has atrophied, stimulus will have little effect."

这位前印度储备银行行长进一步表示，经济刺激是一剂良药，“当疾病被消灭时，它(刺激)可以帮助病人更快地离开病床。”但如果病人已经虚脱，刺激就没有什么效果了。”

Rajan stressed that the recent pick-up in sectors like auto is not an evidence of the much awaited V-shaped recovery.

拉詹强调，汽车等行业近期的回升并不是人们期待已久的V型复苏的证据。

"It reflects pent-up demand, which will fade as we go down to the true level of demand in the damaged, partially-functioning, economy," he noted.

他说:“这反映了被压抑的需求，经济受损，部分运行，随着我们降到真实需求水平，这种需求将会消退。”

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50756.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

Dr Vinay Kumar

This person should stop poking his nose in the practical affairs of economy based on his bookish useless knowledge. The introducer of phone banking is providing cover fire to pappu.

这个人不要再用他那无用的书本知识来理解实际的经济事务了。

这个电话银行的引入者正在为拉胡尔打掩护。

Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla

Countries GDP is an added total of state GSDPs, when Mumbai the economic cpaital of India was locked down, how can you see GDP adding to a huge total? Looks like NCP, Congress and Udhav wanted to destroy Indias ecconomy to make equal to Pakistan.

印度全国GDP是各个邦的GDP总和，当印度的经济中心孟买被封锁时，GDP怎么可能增长呢?

看起来国大党和印共想要摧毁印度的经济，降到巴基斯坦的水平。

DarthVader

Oh, why dont you shut yup?? when you had the opportunity you squandered it Mr Newton!!!

为什么你就是不闭嘴??

该你说的时候你不说!!

Rockstar Player

When he was RBI cheif Governet. India economy flourished. Now since MOdi came it's going down, it's a fact. We were in slow down since 2018 JAN..

当他担任印度储备银行行长时，印度经济繁荣。

自从莫迪上台后，经济就开始走下坡路了，这是事实。

自2018年1月以来，经济增速一直在放缓。

Girish Nair

Gives us a break Raghuram Govind Rajan, keep your ideas to yourself! This virus is still not done. You wanted a stimulus in April, then a May and then... Its now September and the virus has still not gone. a stimulus ahead of time will simply be spent with no economic benefit! Speak to Rahul Gandhi, he's the only idiot who will entertain you now!

让我们静静吧，拉詹，把你的想法留在肚子里!

疫情还没结束呢，你想在4月份出台刺激措施，然后是5月份，现在是9月，病毒还没有消失，

提前出台刺激措施不会有任何经济效益!

你去和拉胡尔·甘地说吧，他是现在唯一会奉承你的笨蛋

Manish Maheshwari

Mr Rajan, Are you economist or Politician ?

拉詹先生，你是经济学家还是政客?

Vinod Kumar

Suggest to Trump.....not India.....US ka dalal...Even Obama called our PM to keep him before he was thrown out.

你还是去给特朗普提建议吧，印度不需要你多嘴……

就连奥巴马离开白宫之前，也打电话给我们的总理，让他帮忙保住位置。

RJ Khurana

Raghuram Raman’s analysis is correct.

拉詹的分析是正确的。

Mahen

Oh really? lol so why is he UNEMPLOYED? hhahahaha

哦，真的吗?

哈哈，那他为什么会被撤职?

Salil Bax

Bhai tu rehne de divide n rule mat kar!! GDP contraction is across the Globe, why single out my Country.

全球GDP都在萎缩，为什么单单挑印度说？

Satish Kumar

This man is worse than a politician

这个人比政客还坏

Mahila Utthan Samiti MUS

Yes, he tells the truth. Unforgivable.

是的，他说了实话，所以不可原谅。

SkyWalker

We are a Banana Republic we are not bothered about Negative GDP, Agrarian Crisis, Highest Unemployment ever, Economy in tatters etc.

我们是一个香蕉共和国，我们不关心负GDP增长率、农业危机、最高的失业率，支离破碎的经济等等。

Rajat Ghildiyal

Rajan you are a Moron... you worry about your college first... There are many better people in India to worry for the GDP.

拉詹，你是个白痴……管好你自己的事……印度有很多更优秀的人操心GDP。

Deepu Velayudhan

Will u please keep quiet and enjoy ur life in the US... we ll manage ourselves

请你保持安静，享受你在美国的生活…我们自己会应对形势的

SANDEEP GUPTA

Mr Rajan, do you have guts to tell same thing to American President or UK PM? Their GDP is also slip big time!!

拉詹先生，你有胆量对美国总统或英国首相说同样的话吗?

他们的GDP也在大幅下滑!!

Rajiv Ahuja

India will see 1000% growth in gdp after ram mandir is made.

We will surpass usa in one year.

罗摩神庙建成后，印度GDP将增长1000%。我们将在一年之内超过美国。