随着确诊病例激增，印度经济将出现两位数下降

India’s economy heads for double-digit decline as virus spikes

随着确诊病例激增，印度经济将出现两位数下降

by Anirban Nag

India’s economic recovery prospects have gone from bad to worse after the nation emerged as a new global hotspot for the coronavirus pandemic with more than 5 million infections.

印度成为全球新冠疫情热点地区，确诊人数超过500万，印度经济复苏前景日益暗淡。

Economists and global institutions like the Asian Development Bank have recently cut India’s growth projections from already historic lows as the virus continues to spread. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now estimates a 14.8% contraction in gross domestic product for the year through March 2021, while the ADB is forecasting -9%. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sees the economy shrinking by 10.2%.

随着疫情继续蔓延，经济学家和亚洲开发银行等全球机构最近将印度的增长预期从已经处于历史低点下调。高盛集团目前预计，截至2021年3月的本财年印度GDP将萎缩14.8%，而亚洲开发银行的预测为-9%。经济合作与发展组织认为印度经济将萎缩10.2%。

The failure to get infections under control will set back business activity and consumption — the bedrock of the economy — which had been slowly picking up after India began easing one of the world’s strictest and biggest lockdowns that started late March. Local virus cases topped the 5 million mark this week, with the death toll surpassed only by the U.S. and Brazil.

如果疫情得不到控制，印度经济的基石——商业活动和消费将受到打击。自3月底开始放宽全球最严格、规模最大的封锁以来，印度的商业活动和消费一直在缓慢回升。截止本周，印度确诊病例超过500万，死亡病例仅次于美国和巴西。

“While a second wave of infections is being witnessed globally, India still has not been able to flatten the first wave of infection curve,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research Ltd., a unit of Fitch Ratings Ltd. He now sees India’s economy contracting 11.8% in the fiscal year, far worse than his earlier projection of -5.8%.

惠誉国际评级旗下印度评级和研究有限公司的首席经济学家苏尼尔·库马尔·辛哈说:“虽然全球正在目睹第二波疫情，但印度仍未能使第一波感染曲线变平。”

他预计印度经济在本财年将萎缩11.8%，远比他之前预测的5.8%要糟糕得多。

Goldman Sachs’s latest growth forecast came last week after data showed gross domestic product plunged 23.9% in the April-June quarter from a year ago, the biggest decline since records began in 1996 and the worst performance of major economies tracked by Bloomberg.

上周公布的数据显示，4 - 6月份，印度GDP较上年同期下滑23.9%，这是自1996年有记录以来的最大降幅，也是彭博社追踪的主要经济体中表现最差的一个。

While there are some signs that activity picked up following the strict lockdown, a strong recovery looks uncertain.

虽然有一些迹象表明，在解封之后，经济活动有所回升，但强劲复苏似乎还不明朗。

“By all indications, the recovery is likely to be gradual as efforts toward reopening of the economy are confronted with rising infections,” Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das told a group of industrialists Wednesday.

印度央行行长达斯周三对实业家表示:“所有迹象表明，复苏可能是渐进的，因为重新开放经济的努力面临着不断上升的感染病例所带来的的阻力。”

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50860.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

Ashok Kumar

India is thw wealthiest country in the world if government is ready to unlock hidden asset, black money.

Every citizen in the country know this but we cant protest eventhough we live in a de ocratic country.

如果政府准备释放隐匿的资产和黑钱，印度将成为世界上最富有的国家。每个印度公民都知道这一点

Shaleen Nath

10% contraction is GDP means that growth would be higher than the previous quarter/previous year...

如果GDP萎缩10%的话，意味着增长将高于上一季度和前一年…

Soumya Panda

It takes years to reach where we are now. Bravo the past Govts and the current. Soon we will be there where we started.

过了这么些年才达到我们目前的GDP水平，很快我们就会回到起点，向印度政府致敬。

Gopal Maheshwari

We assume as first quarter decline in GDP is 23.9% and second quarter decline will be near 13% then first half decline will stand at 17% to 18%. If we assume 0% decline in second half then Indian economic decline near 9%. It's very bad sign for emerging economy

第一季度GDP降幅为23.9%，假设第二季度降幅接近13%，那么上半年的降幅将达到17% - 18%。如果我们假设下半年降幅为0%，那么本财年印度经济降幅接近9%。对于新兴经济体来说，这是非常糟糕的

Rajesh Dharia

there is no end of tomorrow, life is more important than economy . you can earn tomorrow but no use of money if you trapped in pandemic

明天没有尽头，生命比经济更重要。如果疫情持续，就算明天能挣到钱，这些钱也没有用

Iyerravishankar Iyer

Don't worry about double digit negative growth. The fundamental structure is strong.

不要担心两位数负增长，印度经济的基本面很稳固。

Neela Sood

Ok we are afraid of comparing with but what stops you from comparing with pakistan whose GDP fall in the same quarter is -10%. I have no fear in saying that leadership of thes two countris have made this diffrence. Imran remained very reluctant to force lock-down whereas our leader wanted to earn name for declaring world's toughest lock down. What is still worse hee has not owned repercussions.

好吧，我们害怕和比，但为什么不和巴基斯坦比呢?

在同一季度，巴基斯坦GDP下降了10%。我敢说，是两国领导人造成了这种差异。伊姆兰坚持不实施强制封锁，而我们的领导人想要通过宣布全球最严格的封锁而出名。更糟糕的是他不承担后果。

Varadharajan Balasubramanian

Not every thing is so bad. Life is stirring up. The Government should find solutions to speed Industrial production. This will open the door for more employment opportunities.

不是每件事都那么糟糕，生活正改善。政府应该找到加速工业生产的解决方案。这将创造更多就业。

Neela Sood

Free your mind from biases and think over why is 3.5 and India -23%

把你们的思想从偏见中解放出来，好好想想为什么GDP实现了3.5%增长，而印度GDP却下降了23%.

Tapas Dutt

How many countries in the world has private car scrap policy?

A senior citizen living on dwindling interest on deposits cannot buy a new car. No bank will finance him. However he will need a car as he is used to it for years.

There is no need to create inconvenience to citizens for creating demand for any industry. As long as a car is maintained properly and emissions norms are followed, there is no need to scrap any private car for personal use.

Next, government will ask for demolition of buildings of over 30 year old to create market for construction industry.

世界上有多少国家有私家车报废政策?

靠不断减少的存款利息生活的老年人买不起新车。

没有一家银行愿意贷款给他们。

然而，他们需要一辆车，因为他们已经习惯开车出门了。

为了给产业创造需求而给市民带来不便，有必要吗？

只要汽车保养得当，遵守排放标准，就没有必要牵制报废私家车。

下一步，政府将要求拆除30年以上的建筑，为建筑业创造市场。

Anand V

It is not due to virus spikes but inefficent FM

这不是因为病例激增，而是因为财政部长无能

Rewa Enterprises

All knows that economy is going in worst to even worst condition day by day than also why nothing is done for common people.. A question should arise where is my PM???

所有人都知道，经济正一天比一天糟，为什么没有为老百姓人做事？印度总理在干嘛?

Vishwas Singh

Bad News aa aa

坏消息

Krsna

India's economic condition was on a nosedive ever since demonetization... Covid19 just added more salt and pepper to injury... Government hasn't even recognized the problem. We live in ACHE DINS..

自实施废钞令以来，印度的经济状况一落千丈。新冠疫情只是在伤口上洒了一些盐和辣椒粉…印度政府甚至没有意识到这个问题。这就是我们的“好日子”。

Jothi Narayanan

Which nation in the world has successfully come out of the first wave of CoVid-19 ? If so, When the second wave have emerged? What is the definition of the second wave? How it varies from the first wave in parameters as per WHO guidelines?

哪个国家已经成功应对了第一波新冠肺炎疫情?

如果有，第二波是何时出现的?

第二波的定义是什么?

根据世卫组织准则，与第一波相比，参数有何不同?

Addicted2U Trade

How come Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka's economy is in the green when we are heading towards negative growth. They are also going through the same pandemic situation

为什么孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡的经济呈正增长的，而我们正走向负增长。他们也在经历疫情

Thangboi Haokip

also faced similar situation but their economy is not on the negative, plus they didn't blame the virus just because they mismanage it. They built specialized hospital in just 15 days which in India will take 15 years.

也面临疫情，但他们的经济并没有呈负增长，而且他们不会因为管理不善而指责病毒。他们只用15天就建成了一家医院，而印度则需要15年。

Shri

NONSENSE. EVERYONE IS AFFECTED, USA, EU, INDIA. DONT BE SCARED. IT IS ALL AOK. EAT, SLEEP, BE HAPPY

无稽之谈。每个国家都受到了影响，美国，欧盟，印度等等。不要害怕。一切都好，吃好睡好，开心点！