World Bank estimates India’s GDP to plunge 9.6% in 2020-21, sharper than June forecast of 3.2% contraction

世界银行预计，印度GDP在2020-2021财年将下滑9.6%，比6月份3.2%的收缩预期幅度还要大

NEW DELHI: India’s GDP is forecast to plunge in 2020-21 by 9.6% (revised down since June from a 3.2% drop), reflecting the impact of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and small urban service firms, the World Bank said in its latest assessment.

新德里：世界银行在其最新评估报告中称，在2020-2021财年印度GDP预计将暴跌9.6%(自6月以来从3.2%的跌幅向下修正)，这反映了全国封锁带来的影响以及家庭和小型城市服务公司所经历的收入冲击。

Growth is forecast to return to 5.4% in FY22, assuming Covid-related restrictions are completely lifted by 2022, but mostly reflecting base effects, the report on South Asia unveiled by the bank on Thursday said.

世界银行周四公布的南亚报告称，假设2019年前完全取消与新冠相关的限制，预计2015财年增长将恢复到5.4%，但主要反映了基数效应。

The latest forecast from the World Bank is in line with the assessment of other economists, multilateral agencies and investment banks which have estimated the economy to shrink between 5% to 15% in the current fiscal year due to the impact of the strict lockdown imposed to ward off the spread of the deadly Covid-19 pandemic. India’s GDP contracted 23.4% in the June quarter, the sharpest fall among global economies but several key economic indicators have pointed to some recovery as the economy unlocks and several sectors open up for business.

世界银行的最新预测符合其他经济学家的评估,多边机构和投资银行估计，由于为防止致命新冠病毒大流行蔓延而实施的严格封锁，本财政年度印度经济将收缩5%至15%。印度第二季度GDP萎缩23.4%，是全球经济中降幅最大的，但随着经济重新开放，几个关键经济指标已显示出一定程度的复苏。

The report said South Asia is set to plunge into its worst-ever recession as the devastating impacts of Covid-19 on the region’s economies linger on, taking a disproportionate toll on informal workers and pushing millions into poverty.

报告称，由于新冠疫情对该地区经济的破坏性影响持续存在，南亚将陷入有史以来最严重的经济衰退，非正式工人的损失严重，数百万人陷入贫困。

The latest South Asia Economic Focus of the World Bank forecasts a sharper than expected economic slump across the region, with regional growth expected to contract by 7.7% in 2020, after top 6% annually in the past five years.

世界银行最新发布的《南亚经济焦点》预测，该地区将出现比预期更严重的经济衰退，预计该地区2020年的经济增长率将下降7.7%，而过去5年的年均增长率为6%。

The report said that in previous recessions, falling investment and exports led the downturn. This time is different, as private consumption, traditionally the backbone of demand in South Asia and a core indicator of economic welfare, will decline by more than 10 percent, further spiking poverty rates. A decline in remittances is also expected to accelerate loss of livelihoods for the poorest in some countries, the report said.

报告称，在以往的经济衰退中，投资和出口的下降是导致经济衰退的原因。这一次不同，传统上是南亚需求的支柱和经济福利的核心指标的私人消费将下降10%以上，这将进一步推高贫困率。报告称，汇款的减少预计还将加速一些国家最贫困人口的生计损失。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/p/51014.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

Bablu Patel

Nation is suffering becoz of this acheee din fekuu liar..he has destroyed india.

国家正因莫迪这个骗子而受苦受难，他毁了印度。

Venkat

Can u name couple of countries whose GDP is growing during this pandemic situation?

能举出哪些国家的GDP在这次疫情期间实现了正增长吗?

Jraaynai Nsnn

Dr. Manoj Kumar Yadav

Life is more important than the economy... Next financial Year we can grow

生命比经济更重要…下一个财政年度我们将实现增长

GujartGulmaHjdKannadigaITCell

feku gov can't even have good relationship with small neighbouring hindu nepal country desite 10000 crs taxpayer money wasted on feku 100s of feku foreign tour.

莫迪政府甚至没能和信奉印度教的小邻国尼泊尔国建立良好的关系，莫迪出访100多趟，浪费纳税人的钱。

Truth Wins

But people were told that Thali bajao and Diya Jalao would destanbilize Covid virus, what happenned?

人们被告知点亮油灯能消灭新冠病毒，结果怎么样?

Akshit Gurung

so modi is responsible for covid in India right ? We have modi ruling in other countries as well

所以莫迪要为印度的疫情负责，对吧?

其他国家也是由莫迪统治的吗？

RAJEEV RANJAN

COVID is the shield against failure of MODI-ECONOMICS

莫迪在经济方面失败了，新冠病毒成了他的挡箭牌

Ram Dularay Verma

For our government this report has no meaning . In India our government is presently erasing all old system ,infrastructure , institutions , public sectors and services under government control . It may take 10 years more . Thereafter construction of new Bharat will start.

对印度政府来说，这份报告毫无意义。我们印度目前正在清除政府控制下的所有旧系统、基础设施、机构、公共部门和服务，这可能还需要10年。之后将开始建设新印度。

Aditya Chaudhary

We will recover, we don't care about Modi or BJP. Common folk well continue to work hard whether it's feku or pappu.

印度经济会复苏的，我们不在乎莫迪或人民党。无论是莫迪还是拉胡尔执政，老百姓都会继续努力。

P S

WB does not know anything. Our super economist Mr. Modi (next noble prize candidate) will manage everything. It will go up by 10%.

世界银行什么都不懂。我们的超级经济学家莫迪先生(下一届诺贝尔奖候选人)将掌控一切。印度经济将增长10%…

SSUNDARARAMAN SRINIVASA

World Bank -- trebled its earlier forecast of dent on our economy/GDP during current FY now.....obviously the long curfew locks - bans galore..... Unlock phases not picking up..... severe damage to small fry- MSME types...

世界银将先前预测的下降幅度提高了两倍。显然，长期封锁，分解锁阶段对小微企业造成了严重打击…

Dilip J

Why World Bank give only figures for India fall rate of , why cant issue the worst economies data as headlines

为什么世界银行只给出印度GDP的下滑数据，为什么不发布经济最糟糕的国家的数据？

Ram Dularay Verma

Because fall of GDP of India is more than 23% the worst in world.

因为印度GDP萎缩23%，就是全球最糟糕的

Sambappa Kalvala

It already nose dived with note Gandhi itself

印度经济已经开始俯冲了

Ragu

why are you relaying on June quarter? you should wait this current quarter and so your analysis..

为什么要以六月当季为比较基准?应该等这个季度的数据出来了再做分析…

sanujit roy

Job loss, business down, gdp negative, bad news is default

失业，生意下滑，GDP负增长，坏消息接踵而至

Nitesh Kaushik

WB will again change its figure again once the economic activity is up in full swing.

一旦经济活动全面展开，世行将再次修改其数据。