Half of Indians likely to have had coronavirus by next February, govt panel estimates

专家组预计，到明年2月，半数印度人或已感染新冠病毒

MUMBAI: At least half of India's 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the coronavirus by next February, hel slow the spread of the disease, a member of a government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.

孟买：周一，负责新冠疫情预测的政府委员会的一位成员表示，到明年2月，印度13亿人口中至少有一半或已感染新冠病毒，这有助于减缓该疾病的传播。

India has so far reported 75 lakh cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

迄今为止，印度报告了750万例确诊病例，在感染总人数方面仅次于美国。

But Covid-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

据路透社统计，印度新冠肺炎感染病例在9月中旬达到高峰后开始减少，平均每天新增61390例。

"Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February," Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

坎普尔印度理工学院教授、委员会成员玛尼德拉·阿格拉瓦尔告诉路透社：“我们的数学模型估计，目前约有30%的人口受到感染，预计到明年2月这一比例可能会上升到50%。”

The committee's estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the Centre's serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.

该委员会对目前疫情传播情况的估计远高于政府的血清学调查得出的结果，血清学调查显示，截至9月，只有大约14%的人口受到感染。

But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.

阿格拉瓦尔说，血清学调查可能无法得到绝对正确的抽样，因为他们所调查的人口规模太大。

Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.

由病毒学家、科学家和其他专家组成的委员会的预测依靠的是一个数学模型。该委员会的报告于周日公布。

"We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported," Agrawal said.

阿格拉瓦尔说:“我们已经研究出一种新的模型，将未报告的病例考虑在内，我们可以将感染者分为两类——已报告的病例和未报告的感染病例。”

Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.

专家警告说，随着印度假期的临近，感染病例可能会进一步增加。印度的杜尔迦女神节和排灯节将分别在本月和11月中旬到来。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/p/51100.html  译者：Jessica.Wu

Major Nadav

This article is full of loopholes. The article first claims that cases in India are declining, and yet the mathematical model claims that 30% of Indians are infected. If that 30% is true, which translates to 420 million Indians infected with the virus. Since the average fatality rate in India is around 2%, does that mean 8.4 million Indians have died of COVID so far? This entire article by Reuters is nothing but garbage.

这篇文章漏洞百出。文章先说印度的病例正在减少，然而数学模型估算出30%的印度人已感染。

如果这是真的，那么就意味着有4.2亿印度人感染了这种病毒。

由于印度的平均死亡率约为2%，这是否意味着迄今为止已有840万印度人死于新冠肺炎 ?

路透社的这篇文章真是垃圾。

s k

Govt may not be sharing complete figure but the committee may also be wrong when are projecting that more than 30% population are already infected. Statistical models have failed miserably many times

政府可能没有公布全部数据，而委员会预测超过30%的人口已感染，这可能也是错误的。统计模型经常出错

Atul Thakker

In the morning you guys said - India will be over this pandemic by Feb 21. Now you are saying 65crore people will be affected.

早上说，印度疫情将在2月21日会结束，现在又说届时会有6.5亿人感染。

Pradeep Kumar

Please learn from , Srilanka, Somalia etc. These courtiers successfully isolated the location and controlled the spread. The BJP Govt ignored Covid-19 till March end allowed it to spread.

请向、斯里兰卡、索马里等国学习，这些国家成功控制了疫情的传播。印度人民党政府一直无视新冠病毒，任由其蔓延，直到3月底才采取措施。

Lakshmi Narayanan

Half of Indians mean 650 million people? Have they gone crazy? They call themselves experts..!

一半的印度人意味着6.5亿人?

他们疯了吗?

还自称是专家…!

Lallan

Many people get corona but don't go to Dr. or anyone for the fear of dyeing unnatural death because of gross negligence of medical staff. It is better to die peacefully at home rather than going to crooked doctors.

很多人感染了新冠病毒，但不去看医生，怕被治死。

与其去看庸医，不如在家里平静地死去。

Dreet

Indians can't stay at home and stay safe.They love loitering in market and Malls

印度人在家里待不住。他们喜欢在市场和购物中心闲逛

BHUSHAN KARNIK

What a shameless statement given by BJP/RSS government. By this statement they reflect as though Indian's are Lab Rats .

印度人民党政府发表的声明太无耻了。说得印度人好像是实验室的小白鼠一样。

Nutz Nutz

75 lakh till now in 10 months and half of India that means 65 crore in next 4 months by February. what kind of control is that or has the government has completely given up?

10个月，印度确诊750万。印度一半的人口将感染，意味着在接下来的4个月里，到明年2月，累计确诊将达到6.5亿。这疫情是怎么控制的，或者说政府已经完全放弃了?

Gossip Girl

idiots at one point says by Feb number of total positive cases will reach 1 crore... now they are are saying half of the population.... they are themselves confused and giving arbitrary numbers... crazy people

白痴，之前说到2月份，确诊病例总数将达到1亿…现在他们又说一半人口会感染…他们自己也很困惑，随便给数据……一群疯子

SYED ABDULMUQTADIR

Exaggerated news article.

夸大其词

Dreet

Its already half. You can't hide it for long

感染人数已经有一半了，瞒不了多久了

Kapeel Gupta

An article written by a fool...

傻子写的文章

DarthVader

this papers has lost its marbles, gone bonkers!!!!

这报纸疯了，疯了!!

Aditya Gangrade

My maths is not that good but i am sure that to reach the figurs to infect half the population we need to have cases more than 90 times of the current averave cases per day.

我的数学不是很好，不过我知道，感染人数要达到一半的人口，那每天的新增病例需要是目前平均水平的90倍以上。

Venkat

30 percent of indian population is 360 milliion and only 7 million is affected now.

30%的印度人口为3.6亿，而目前确诊病例只有700多万。

horrnett

yet health ministry sticking with no communal transmission stand. shame on the people of india for electing such illiterate people to govern this great nation.

然而，卫生部坚称印度没有出现社区传播。印度人民真可耻，他们选举了这样的文盲来管理这个伟大的国家。

Indian

Govts are hiding real data.. testing is very less.. how the data can be trusted

印度政府隐瞒了真实数据…检测非常少。数据如何可信？