Three ex-Reserve Bank of India governors say bad debt will hinder India’s recovery

三位前印度央行行长表示，坏账将阻碍印度经济的复苏

By Anirban Nag

Indian banks saddled with the world’s worst bad debt pile pose a risk to the nation’s economic growth unless the government steps in to recapitalize some of them, according to three former central bank chiefs in a soon-to-be released book.

三位前印度央行行长在一本即将出版的书中称，除非政府采取措施对部分印度银行进行资本重组，否则背负着全球最糟糕坏账的印度银行将对该国经济增长构成风险。

The problem though is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has very little resources to help the banks after pledging money to fight the pandemic’s fallout, the ex-central bankers say in the book, “Pandemonium: The Great Indian Banking Tragedy”. The reason: falling revenues that are seen causing the fiscal deficit to blow out to double that budgeted.

不过，三位前央行行长在《混乱：印度银行业的大悲剧》一书中表示，问题在于，在承诺为抗击疫情提供资金后，印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪几乎没有资金来帮助银行。原因在于，财政收入的下降导致财政赤字激增，达到预算的两倍。

“Yes, the bad loan problem is big and real,” Duvvuri Subbarao, governor at the Reserve Bank of India between 2008 and the autumn of 2013, said in the book by journalist Tamal Bandyopadhyay. “But, what is also big and real is the fiscal constraints of the government.”

曾在2008年至2013年秋期间担任印度央行行长的杜武里•苏巴拉奥在记者塔马尔•班约帕德哈伊撰写的这本书中表示：“是的，坏账问题是巨大而真实的，而政府的财政约束同样巨大且切实存在。”

India has set aside Rs 20,000 crore ($2.7 billion) to recapitalize state-run lenders this year, a fraction of the $13 billion that analysts say is needed. Over the past three years, the government has pumped in Rs 2.6 lakh crore into the dominant state-run banks, but their troubles have only grown.

印度今年已拨出2000亿卢比(合27亿美元)用于对国有银行进行资本重组，仅为分析师所认为所需的130亿美元的一小部分。在过去的三年里，印度政府已经向占主导地位的国有银行注入了2.6万亿卢比资金，但这些银行的麻烦只增不减。

Problem loans could jump to 12.5% by March -- the highest level in two decades -- as the pandemic puts pressure on the $1.8 trillion financial sector where lending standards, provisioning norms and bankruptcy rules have been eased of late, according to the RBI. State-run banks are particularly vulnerable and with some starved of capital, there are consequences for the economy that is on course for the biggest contraction among major emerging markets.

印度储备银行表示，随着疫情给规模达1.8万亿美元的金融业带来压力，到今年3月，问题贷款可能会飙升至12.5%，达到20年来的最高水平。印度的金融业最近已经放宽了贷款标准、拨备标准和破产规则。国有银行尤其容易受到冲击，一些银行缺乏资金，这将给正在经历主要新兴市场中最严重收缩的印度经济造成后果。

“In a way, fiscal problem spills over into banking and then financial sector problem with a feedback loop into the real economy,” the book cited Yaga Venugopal Reddy, RBI governor from September 2003 to 2008, as saying. “In brief, non-performing assets are not only a problem but a consequence of other problems.”

该书引用2003年9月至2008年担任印度央行行长的雷迪的话说:“在某种程度上，财政问题会蔓延到银行业，然后是金融业问题，并对实体经济形成反馈。简言之，不良资产不仅是一个问题，而且是其他问题的后果。”

“The continuance of real sector problems, partly policy-driven in the most recent period such as demonetization, has aggravated the banking situation,” said Chakravarthy Rangarajan, who headed the RBI during 1992-97. “It is an economic crisis.”

Chakravarthy Rangarajan曾在1992-97年期间领导印度储备银行，他说:“最近，部分由政策驱动的实体部门问题，如废钞令，已经恶化了银行业的状况。这是一场经济危机。”

印度经济时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Arvind Sharma

Covid 19 has added to the woes of the financial sector particularly the Banking Sector. Both Government an Banking must address the problem realistically and suggest practical solutions as hospitality, aviation, transport, entertainment etc. have suffered a lot. The solutions must not be at the cost of depositors who have already suffered due to interest falls and inflation.

新冠疫情加剧了金融部门的困境，尤其是银行业。印度政府和银行都必须实事求是地解决这个问题，提出切实可行的解决方案，酒店、航空、交通、娱乐等行业都遭受了巨大损失。

这些解决方案不能以储户为代价，储户已经因利息下降和通货膨胀而遭受了损失。

Raju

Why didn't these Governors say anything about bad loans during their tenure? Did they get any special knowledge after their tenure?

为什么这些行长在任期内对不良贷款只字不提?

他们在卸任后才恍然大悟吗?

Pradeep Kumar Tewari

Problem may only be solved by recovering NPA strong handedly from corporates and declaring wilful defaults a criminal offence punishable with imprisonment for life.

要解决这个问题，只能从企业中强制收回不良贷款，并宣布故意违约为刑事犯罪，可判处终身监禁。

Shri

better cut expenses. cut down loans. spend less. save more. monitor all loans 24 7. never throw good money after bad. global recession is here

最好削减开支，减少贷款，少花钱，多存钱。监督所有贷款，不要乱花钱。全球经济衰退已经来临

Sudhir Gupta

The need is to reduce unproductive expenditure of the goverment .

必须减少政府的非生产性支出。

Hindi new songs Matkar

Slee on wheels, what were these RBI governors doing when NPA was created during their tenure.

在他们任期内，不良贷款积累的时候，印度储备银行的这些行长们在做什么呢?

Jagadeesh M

Did anyone from the govt asked for their free advise.

印度政府有没有问过他们的建议?

Sundar Narayanan

These intellectual gurus always clamour for bank recapitalisation as if dozens of borrowers are queuing before banks for loans. Banks ard not able to lend not because of Capital but because of dearth of borrowers. These hawks want government to give capital and banks to lend indiscriminately and this was only happening in these intellectual gurus time...

这些知识分子总是大声疾呼，要求银行进行资本重组，就好像几十个借贷者在银行前排队等候贷款一样。银行不能放贷不是因为资本，而是因为缺乏借款人。

dipi ti

Party funds are immune to IT scrutiny as per ;aw made by this Govt.

根据现任政府制定的法律，政党基金不受审查。

hari krishna Johri

Unfortunately right people are not in politics so no chance of right people getting elected. Right people are not fraud ,don't bluff & don't lie & hence have no qualification to become a NETA.

不幸的是，能胜任的人不参与政治，所以没有机会当选。他们不会骗人，不会虚张声势，不会撒谎，因此没有资格成为骗子。

Srinivasan Vedantam

There is excess liquidity creating demand push inflation and artificial stock market ballooning. Government should have created more jobs . After corana episode it is billionaires like ambani benefitted instead poor and downtrodden as seen from vast disparities in income and wealth. More money with affluent society results in stock market bubble and wealth diversion to real estate and gold than for demand creation. Demand to be accelerated by income rather credit to consumer segments like car buyers etc.

过剩的流动性创造了需求，推动了通货膨胀和人为的股市膨胀。政府应该创造更多的就业机会。钱越多，就会导致股市泡沫，财富会流向房地产和黄金，而无法创造需求。增加需求的是收入，而不是给对汽车购买者等消费者的信贷。

Ainkya

Bad debt problem is caused by over involvement of government in banking sector. Government decides which companies, sectors get bailouts and banks pay for these bailouts

不良债务问题是政府对银行业过度干预造成的。政府决定哪些公司、部门可获得救助，银行为此买单

Srinivasan Vedantam

more than policies and fundamentals it is diversion fraud by big corporates caused the issue.

造成这一问题的不仅是因为政策和基本面因素，更是因为大公司的欺诈行为。

Ramesh Kapadia Kapadia

Although the said Governors were at their posting time never tries hard to control on bankers,after so long time thy realize it...it's absurd..

尽管上述行长在任时从未试图控制银行，过了这么长时间，他们才意识到，太荒谬了……