印度储备银行预测，印度经济正处于技术性衰退中

India in historic technical recession, RBI 'nowcast' shows

印度储备银行预测，印度正处于技术性衰退中

NEW DELHI: India’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter, according to a team of economists including Michael Patra, the central bank’s deputy governor in charge of monetary policy, pushing the country into an unprecedented recession.

新德里：包括负责货币政策的印度央行副行长迈克尔•帕特拉在内的一组经济学家表示，印度经济可能连续第二个季度萎缩，将印度推入前所未有的衰退中。

Gross domestic product contracted 8.6% in the quarter ended September, the Reserve Bank of India showed in its first ever published ‘nowcast,’ which is an estimate based on high-frequency data. The economy had slumped about 24% in April to June.

印度央行在首次公布的“临近预测”数据中显示，截至9月份的这个季度，印度GDP萎缩了8.6%。“临近预测”是根据高频数据做出的估计。从4月到6月，印度经济下滑了约24%。

“India has entered a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 for the first time in its history,” the authors wrote. The government is due to publish official statistics November 27. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists sees a contraction of 10.4% in the July-September quarter.

作者写道：“2020-2021财年上半年，印度历史上首次进入技术性衰退。”，政府将于11月27日公布官方统计数据。彭博社对经济学家的调查预测中值显示，今年第三季度印度经济将萎缩10.4%。

Rare contraction

罕见的萎缩

The Reserve Bank’s number is buoyed by cost cuts at companies, which boosted operating profits even as sales dipped. The team of authors also used a range of indicators from vehicle sales to flush banking liquidity to signal brightening prospects for October. If this upturn is sustained, the Indian economy will return to growth in the October-December quarter, earlier than projected by governor Shaktikanta Das last month, when he pledged to keep monetary policy accommodative.

印度储备银行的数据受到企业成本削减的提振，尽管销售下滑，但企业的营业利润仍得到提振。研究小组还利用汽车销售、银行流动性充沛等一系列指标，来显示10月份前景光明。如果这种好转势头持续下去，印度经济将在第四季度恢复增长，这比央行行长沙克蒂坎塔•达斯上月预测的要早。达斯当时承诺将保持宽松的货币政策。

However, “there is a grave risk of generalization of price pressures, unanchoring of inflation expectations feeding into a loss of credibility in policy interventions,” the team of economists wrote in the Reserve Bank’s bulletin. They also highlighted risks to global growth from a second wave of coronavirus infections.

然而，该经济学家团队在央行公报中写道，“存在一种严重的风险，即价格压力泛化，通胀预期不稳定，从而导致政策干预失去可信度。”他们还强调了第二波疫情给全球经济增长带来的风险。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/51293.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

Ravimurthy Krishnamurthy

At last, the truth is told by RBI, we are in recession for some time now and the economy is going down still further. This situation really defines the failure of current government policies and planning

印度央行终于告诉我们，印度陷入衰退已经有一段时间了，经济还在进一步下滑。这表明当前政府政策和计划的失败

tauseef

Now India is sick man of south Asia....

现在印度成了“南亚病夫”....

Ragu

which country is zooming in economy?

有哪个国家的经济在飞速增长?

Anjan Kesh

, Bangladesh

，孟加拉国啊

Jonathan

Finally the cat is out of the bag. We are in recession Madam Nirmala.

秘密终于泄露了。西塔拉曼女士，我们正处于经济衰退之中。

Uday Panchpor

Global slow down is a reality and we in India have to face it. We have to take this head-on and come out of it

全球经济放缓已是事实，我们印度人必须面对。我们必须直面困难，走出困境

sreejesh nair

we have to face this recession due to the wrong and foolish policies of the ruling govt

由于印度政府错误、愚蠢的政策，我们不得不面对此次衰退

Ashish Thakur

Keep voting for uneducated chai valas and gundas.. this is what you get..

继续投票给一帮文盲，这就是后果…

Vishal Sheth

Only anti national people divert focus to unimportant issues like poverty, hunger, unemployment, economy, rapes. India is clearly a vishwa guru. All this is just a conspiracy to malign India.

只有反国家分子才会把注意力转移到不重要的问题上，比如贫穷、饥饿、失业、经济、强奸。这些都是诋毁印度的阴谋。

bcom1 year

Lock down was big mistake.PM totally ignored Economy before introducing lock down. Lock down proved disastrous for poor and backward country like India. African countries succeeded to control corona without lock down

封锁是大错。在实施封锁之前，莫迪总理完全忽视了经济。

对印度这样贫穷落后的国家来说，实施封锁是灾难性的。

就连非洲国家都成功地控制住了疫情。

Brian Banks

Finally it here.

The Ache din.

Thanks NaMo

感谢莫迪，“好日子”来了

Islamullah Khan

Modi has destroyed Indian ecomony.

莫迪毁了印度经济。

Shailendra Mumbai Pune

Petrol and diesel prices are burning people. When international prices are considerably low, prices in India are hovering around 90. BJP was shouting against petrol prices before 2014 elections. Most of the PSUs like BSNL and BPCL had gone to Ambani. This govt has failed on economic front.

汽油和柴油价格高得要死。当国际油价相当低的时候，印度的油价徘徊在90左右。人民党在2014年大选前大声疾呼反对高油价。BSN和BPCL等多数石油国企都被安巴尼收购了。这届政府在管理经济方面失败了。

Sunil Verma

RBI is anti national and it should go to Pakistan. We don't want this anti national news. Our economy is number one and growing very fast under Modiji. All patriotic Indians should ignore this news.

印度央行是反国家的，应该去巴基斯坦。我们不想要看这条新闻。在莫迪的领导下，印度经济增长非常快，全球第一。所有爱国的印度人都应该忽略这条新闻。

Anjan Kesh

Everything is historic when in hands of illiterate chaiwala

在文盲卖茶人的治理下，一切都是史无前例的

Ponraj Abraham

This is indian politics. Before election economy booming and after results economy recession.

这就是印度政治，选举前经济繁荣，选举后经济衰退。

Brian Dimello

Bhakts will make 5 trillion pakoda economy.

印度人将创造5万亿美元经济体。

Hem Nath

I don't see any recession. People still continue to buy cars, houses, invest in gold, go for tour. I see celebrations are around..