Forecasters raise GDP projections after Q2 rebound

第二季度反弹后，预测机构上调对印度GDP的预期

MUMBAI: Forecasters are revising upwards their projection for the current fiscal’s GDP growth after better-than-expected numbers for the second quarter. Most economists expect India’s GDP to shrink between 6% and 8% in FY21.

孟买：印度第二季度的GDP数据高于预期，数据公布后，预测机构上调了对当前财年印度GDP增长的预测。大多数经济学家预计，2021财年印度GDP将萎缩6%至8%。

Until last month, international agencies like the IMF were expecting the economy to shrink by 10%. The RBI is widely expected to continue with its accommodative stance, keep liquidity in surplus without actually cutting rates, given that credit growth continues to remain negative but is expected to hold on to its policy rate in its post-monetary policy statement.

直到上个月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)等国际机构还预计印度经济将萎缩10%。鉴于信贷增长继续为负，外界普遍预期印度央行将继续保持宽松立场，在不实际降息的情况下保持流动性过剩，但预计印度央行将在其货币政策声明中维持政策利率不变。

Nomura has upgraded the FY21 GDP forecast to -8.2% from -10.8%. Most agencies have raised their projections over the weekend, while others are expected to do so this week.

野村证券已将21财年印度GDP预期从-10.8%上调至-8.2%。上周末，多数评级机构上调了预期，其他机构预计本周也将上调预期。

“It is likely that the outturn would trigger sharp upgrades to consensus estimates for full-year GDP, including that of the RBI that had pencilled in more than 9% contraction for the same period when it detailed its quarterly projections in October,” said A Prasanna and Abhishek Upadhyay of ICICI Securities in a report. They noted that the RBI had predicted a sharp contraction of 5.6% even in the Oct-Dec period, and it is likely that a reasonably strong upgrade is plausible to that estimate too based on high-frequency data in the current quarter.

印度工业信贷投资银行证券的A Prasanna和Abhishek Upadhyay在一份报告中表示：“这可能会引发对全年GDP普遍预期的大幅上调，印度储备银行(RBI)在10月份详细公布季度预测时预计同期收缩9%以上。”印度储备银行曾预测，即使在10月至12月期间，印度经济也将大幅收缩5.6%，而基于当前季度的高频数据，这一预测也可能出现相当大幅的上调。

Although the RBI is expected to maintain the status quo in rates, liquidity is expected to be in surplus due to a record purchase of dollars by the central bank to keep the exchange rate in check.

尽管预计印度储备银行将维持利率现状，但由于央行为控制汇率而创纪录地购买美元，预计流动性将出现过剩。

According to SBI group chief economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh, one of the drivers for the rebound has been the growth in manufacturing. However, he believes that a large part of the improvement is due to cost-saving, particularly wage, which could have implications for consumption.

印度国家银行集团(SBI group)首席经济学家苏米亚•康提•高希表示，经济反弹的驱动因素之一是制造业的增长。不过，他认为，这种改善在很大程度上要归功于成本节约，尤其是工资，这可能会对消费产生影响。

印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/51432.html   译者：Jessica.Wu

Rai Bahadur

Good job by Modi ji.

干得好，莫迪。

Anand Mirle

This really says that Indian economy is in a steep V-shape recovery and will only accelerate to get back to growth story fast.

这表明，印度经济正处于明显的V型复苏之中，而且会加速恢复快速增长。

Asok Datta

These figures are fudged and have no value- the actual contraction will be much more; the Indian economy has been hit by a torpedo to sink it

这些数据都是捏造出来的，没有任何意义——实际的萎缩幅度要大得多;印度经济遭受了重创

Sanjay Sehgal

Agriculture is experiencing high growth rate which is major part of economy.

农业是印度经济的重要组成部分，目前正在高速增长。

Sanjoy Pandey

The economy of the whole world has been affected by the Corona pandemic, but India will record a V turn.

全球经济都受到了新冠疫情的影响，但是印度经济将会出现V型复苏。

Jagdish Madan

Indian economy is certain to pick up as the pandemic slows. The fundamentals of Indian economy are strong and the country now has an honest government in place!

随着疫情的缓解，印度经济肯定会复苏。印度经济的底子厚，而且现在有一个诚实的政府执政!

J D

GDP per capita is the general standard used to determine how rich a country is. The GDP per capita of USA is $60,0000. Meanwhile the GDP per capita of India is only $2,000. This means that India is one of the poorest countries in the world. Even some war torn countries like Iraq is richer than India~

人均GDP是衡量一个国家富裕程度的标准。美国的人均GDP是6万美元，而印度的人均GDP只有2000美元。这意味着印度是世界上最穷的国家之一，就连伊拉克这样饱受战争摧残的国家也比印度富有

Dev

Good News.

好消息. .

Sandeep Parmar

PM Modi is rebuilding India. The Congress totally destroyed India with a network of corruption and anti-national institutions, serving one family.

莫迪总理正在重建印度。国大党腐败，利用反国家机构网络彻底摧毁了印度，只为一个家族服务。

Pranav

The economy estimatedly contracted by a whop 24.5% in Q1 and just below 10% in the successive quarter going by preliminary estimates which are of course subject to revision.

根据初步估计，一季度印度经济大幅萎缩24.5%，第二季度萎缩略低于10%，而且是经过修正的。

aaaa bbbb

Our country has a great capability to fight back and rebound any adverse situation. Be it economy, pandemic, and pakistan. JAI HIND. BHARAT MATA KI JAI. VANDE MATARAM

我们国家有很强的抵抗能力和扭转任何不利局面的能力，无论是对面经济、疫情、还是巴基斯坦。印度必胜！

VasiKars M

Technically , consecutive two negative growth is saying that economy is heading towards recession. But our paid media is busy in painting rosy picture and neglecting 29 percent unemolyment

连续两个季度负增长意味着经济正走向衰退。但我们的媒体正忙着描绘美好的画面，却忽视了29%的失业率

Quhesobi

According to IMF, our GDP in FY20 will shrink back to 2014 level when Surrender Modi took power. On top of that, the GDP gap between and India widens to $12.6 trillion ($15.5 trillion in PPP terms). Clearly, we have to work even harder after we kick Feku out of power. However, it will still take at least a decade for his successor to undo all the damages done by Feku.

根据国际货币基金组织的预测，印度GDP将收缩到2014年莫迪上台时的水平。除此之外，和印度的GDP差距扩大到12.6万亿美元(按购买力平价计算为15.5万亿美元)。在我们把莫迪踢下台后，其继任者仍需要至少10年时间才能弥补莫迪造成的所有损害。

Reddy

Numbers dont lie, india has highest bribery corruption in Asia. India has highest petrol diesel prices, excise taxes in the world.

数据不会说谎，印度是亚洲最腐败的国家。印度的汽油、柴油价格和消费税是全世界最高的。

H S B

Indian economy is very strong as our economy is more depending upon the Agriculture. Hence, we will never go down like any other country in the world. Our economy foundation is too strong.

印度经济非常强大，因为我们的经济更依赖于农业。因此，我们永远不会像其他国家的经济那样衰退。我们的经济基础太坚实了。

Sunil Chitravanshi

In the coming 5-10 years, India would be amongst the top three world economies. All because of the foresight & vision of Modiji.

未来5-10年，印度将跻身世界前三大经济体之列。这一切都归功于莫迪的远见卓识。

Pais Hilary

Hiding the true state of the economy.

隐瞒了经济的真实状况

Anand Mirle

Forecasts are always conservative which means the real growth would be even better...

预测总是保守的，这意味着实际增长率甚至会更好……