Who has the brightest future, China, Japan, or South Korea?

谁的未来最光明，是中国、日本还是韩国？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Thomas Pauken II, B.A. from Thomas More College of Liberal Arts (1999)

All three nations listed in the question have great potential for bright futures. Yet China stands poised to enjoy the brightest prospects in the long-term. China has large land space, a huge population, as well as social stability.

上述三个国家都有巨大的发展潜力。从长远来看，中国的前景是最为光明的。中国领土幅员辽阔，人口众多，社会稳定。

Japan and South Korea are not as large as China. Tokyo and Seoul have close-knit diplomatic relations with Western de ocracies and maintain durable alliances with them. But the alliances could impose barriers by inhibiting Japanese and South Korean foreign policy and global business connections.

日本和韩国的国土面积不如中国。东京和首尔与西方国家有着紧密的外交关系，长期保持着盟友关系。这些联盟可能会制约日本和韩国的外交政策和全球商业联系，制造障碍。

The West seeks a dominant position over Tokyo and Seoul. The US military has bases in South Korea and Japan, while Washington can dictate its terms on them. Hence, the Japanese and South Koreans must rely on the US Armed Forces to protect them and that could restrict the two countries from taking bolder diplomatic initiatives.

西方意图对东京和首尔指手画脚。美国军方在韩国和日本都有基地，华盛顿方面可以对这些基地发号施令。因此，日本和韩国必须依靠美国军队来保护他们，这可能就会限制两国采取更为大胆的外交手段。

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy still has room for growth and rapid development, since large parts of the country remain rural and impoverished. Western China is mostly under-developed but with good land for agriculture and tourism. The eastern and southern coastal regions are more urbanized.

同时，中国经济仍有增长和快速发展的空间。中国西部大部分地区经济欠发达，但有肥沃的土地可用于发展农业和旅游业，而东部和南部沿海地区城市化程度更高。

Many Chinese cities are located near the nation’s lengthy coastline, since manufacturers have closer access to international ship ports. China is the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter.

许多中国城市都位于中国的漫长海岸线附近，所以制造企业距离国际航运港口更近。中国现在已是世界上最大的制造国和出口国。

The country’s foreign trade surplus has hit an annual record high last year, despite the grave impact of the Covid pandemic.

尽管新冠肺炎疫情的影响严重，但去年中国对外贸易顺差再创年度新高。

The domestic economy will undergo a transition in the years ahead with structural shifts to boost the nation’s consumption and services sectors. Beiing is pushing ahead on its pledge to reach the stage of a ‘moderately prosperous society’ by 2030.

未来几年，国内经济将经历一次转型，进行结构性调整，推动消费行业和服务行业发展。中国正在稳步推进其2030年达到“小康社会”阶段的承诺。

Accordingly, poverty will be eradicated and hundreds of millions of Chinese families will join the ranks of the Middle Class.

因此，贫困将被逐步消除，数以亿计的中国家庭将加入中产阶级行列。

China’s total GDP (gross domestic product) could surpass the US by 2028 or even earlier. The Chinese people are hard working, resilient and ambitious to succeed. The South Koreans and Japanese hold similar character traits but they don’t reside in a nation as large China.

中国的国内生产总值(GDP)可能在2028年或更早的时候超过美国。中国人民勤劳、坚韧、志存高远。韩国人和日本人虽然也有着相似的性格特征，但他们的国家不像中国这么大。

Japan and South Korea do have vibrant cross-border trade and investment ties with China. The three countries are famous for supporting innovations in the manufacturing sector as they are forging paths to embark on the digital automation age.

日本和韩国与中国的跨境贸易和投资非常活跃。这三个国家以大力扶持制造业创新而举世闻名，它们正在步入数字自动化时代的道路。

Digital manufacturing utilizes advancements in the fields of AI (artificial intelligence), smart technologies, robotics, Big Data reporting, self autonomous vehicles and much more to increase production levels and efficiency on factory floors.

数字制造利用AI(人工智能)、智能技术、机器人、大数据报告、自动驾驶汽车等领域的进步，提高工厂的生产水平和效率。

Nikolaij Brouiller

There is no question about it: *Japan*.

答案毫无疑问：*日本*。

China's economy is still and probably forever highly dependent on favorable foreign trade.

中国经济仍然，而且可能永远高度依赖对外贸易顺差。

Japan on the other hand, despite being a country with many problems of its own, some very major ones; like another nuclear powerplant that may go “poof" very soon… at least Japan has internal stability and good international relations that guarantee trade for the long foreseeable future.

另一方面，日本虽然问题也不少，有些问题还挺严重；比如也许马上又会有核电站发生核泄露，但至少日本国内还是稳定的，国际关系良好，未来很长一段时间内贸易还能安全无虞。

Korea is in a similar situation as Japan; but arguably worse because they are sitting on a huge bubble that will pop harder than Japan in the 90s.

South Korea’s population is 3.7% that of China’s. Population size alone guarantees that China has a brighter future.

China is leading the world in most technological areas, especially AI and robotics, as well as 5G and 6G.

China’s signature Belt and Road program cements China’s future as the #1 economic world power. This is in addition to RCEP, the world’s largest free trade zone.

韩国的情况与日本相似；但可以说更糟的是，他们正躺在一个巨型泡沫上，这个泡沫一旦破裂，将比90年代的日本更加严重。

韩国的人口只有中国的3.7%。单单人口规模就能保证中国拥有更为光明的未来。

中国在大多数技术领域都处于世界领先地位，尤其是人工智能和机器人，以及5G和6G。

中国的“一带一路”计划巩固了中国作为世界头号经济强国的未来。此外，RCEP是全球最大的自由贸易区。

Mike Chiew

These three countries and Russia are set to become the brightest in the world for the coming decades. They are hard working, innovative, knowledge seeking people, love to discover new inventions, self confidence, never say die attitude, fair amount of IQ, loyal to their countries, great vitality, highly responsible people, having great quality governing leaders, great at motivation, good education systems, character building and fight corruption at the roots.

这三个国家和俄罗斯将在未来几十年成为世界上最闪亮的国家。他们的国民工作努力、追求创新、渴望知识、喜欢新发明、充满自信、永不言败、智商高、忠于祖国、活力充沛、高度负责，领导人素质极高，善于激励，教育系统出色，打击腐败根源。

All these qualities are hard to emulate by others and they never rest on their laurels if the answers are not found. East Asians traditionally have stronger country loyalty mindsets with good encouragement from family, it's certainly a strong point to drive their countries to the pinnacle of economy success.

这些品质都是很难被别人效仿的，他们永远不会满足于自己的荣誉。东亚人一贯有着更强的爱国情怀，他们的家庭教育从小就向他们灌输这一观念，这当然是推动他们的国家取得经济成就的一大优势。

Phen Su, Historian

China Japan and Korea are very similar in race and culture.

China has a market.

Japan has technology.

Korea has fashion.

We will unite to create the Asian century.

中国、日本和韩国在人种和文化上非常相似。

中国有市场。

日本有技术。

韩国有时尚。

我们三国要团结起来，开创属于亚洲的世纪

Dan Kim

The three countries’ economic futures are intertwined. All three nations have relatively bright future as they collectively hold key advantages in technologies that will shape the future of human race. In terms of raw potential, China’s rise still has long ways to go and China’s rise will continue to fuel economic growth of Korea and Japan.

这三个国家的经济未来是相互交织相互成就的。这三个国家都拥有比较光明的未来，共同拥有塑造人类未来的关键技术优势。就潜力而言，中国的崛起还有很长的路要走，中国的崛起将继续推动韩国和日本的经济增长。

Sonei Fu

Of course China. China will still be in relative rapid growth for next 20 years, and will replace US as world dominating power. Japan is in steady decline, will be just like a province(like Guangdong, of similar population) of China economically in 20 years. South Korea has more potential of growth than Japan but is also more fragile. However there's also a possibility that once China replaced US as the only power in Asia, Japan&South Korea might join China's economic circle and grow again with China.

毫无疑问是中国。在未来20年里，中国仍将保持相对快速的增长，并将取代美国成为主导世界的势力。日本经济一直在下滑，20年后，日本经济将沦为中国一个省的水平(比如广东，两者的人口较为相似)。韩国的增长潜力比日本大，但也更为脆弱。然而，也有一种可能性，一旦中国取代美国成为亚洲唯一的力量，日本和韩国可能会加入中国的经济圈，并再次与中国一起增长。

Andy C

japan is a mature economy,doesnt have much room to grow, korea is almost mature too. China on the other hand still has a lot of room to grow. China has both man power and a lot of natural resources. I say, economically, China

日本是一个成熟的经济体，已经没有太多的增长空间了，韩国也差不多成熟了。但中国仍有很大的增长空间。中国既有劳动力资源又有丰富的自然资源。所以要我说，经济上肯定是中国。

Jesse Towne

maybe it’s east asia union lol

也许是东亚联盟，哈哈。

Roger Moore

China, Japan and Korea(both) in order History is a mirror.

绝对是中国，日本和韩国这两个国家，看看他们的历史吧，历史是一面镜子。

in Hwang, CEO at Land and Development Office (2015-present)

Among three countries, Korea has more dynamic and liberal atmosphere. China has biggest land and population. Japan has strongest scientific and technological background. What would be a criterion for the brightest future? Is it possible for Korea to overcome its instrinsic weak point of small size? Is it possible for Japan to overcome the Galapagos behavior which restraints many Japanese entreprenuers attracting global consumers? If the size of a country is a critical point for the brightest future, how to explain the staggering situation of Russia?

在三个国家中，韩国更加活跃、自由。中国拥有最大的土地面积和人口规模。日本拥有最强大的科技背景。你所说的最光明的未来，评价标准是什么？韩国有可能克服国土面积小这一缺点吗？

日本有可能克服制约许多日本企业家吸引全球消费者的加拉帕戈斯群岛行为吗？如果一个国家的大小是影响最光明未来的关键，那俄罗斯的现状又要如何解释？

If population of a country is a critical point for the brightest future, then how to explain why India has been trapped for long time at the under-developed level? If we recollect the history of the world, it could be very rare case to see any country being deteriorated incrementally like Japan. Having a big consumer market, world class technologies and scientific competency and a great deal of competitive companies can facilitate a country into decadance?

如果一个国家的人口是影响最光明未来的关键，那么如何解释印度为何长期挣扎在欠发达水平？如果我们回顾一下世界历史，我们会发现，像日本这样日渐衰败的国家是非常罕见的。拥有庞大的消费市场、世界一流的技术水平和科学能力，拥有大量极具竞争力的公司，会让一个国家走向衰落吗？

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/51991.html 译者：Joyceliu

Some many point out the incompetency of Japanese politics as main culprit resulting in present recession. In spite of political problems in Japan, it can be a very contradictory situation for Japan if it degrades into a second tier country even though all the merits I have mentioned above. What about Korea which has been facing solemn confrontation with North Korea for more than fifty years with small land of fragile natural resources? Then why many futurologists in the world used to forecast Korea positively and Japan negatively?

许多人指出日本政治的无能是造成目前经济衰退的主要原因。尽管日本存在政治问题，但如果日本沦为二流国家，即使拥有我上面提到的所有优点，对日本来说也是非常矛盾的。那么韩国呢？这个自然资源匮乏的弹丸之地已经与朝 鲜严重对抗了50多年。那么，为什么世界上许多未来学家过去对韩国的预测是正面的，但对日本的预测则是负面的呢？

I think the brightest future of a country depends on how to build an environment of inducing creativity and innovation internally or externally or both at the same time. The typical country which succeeds in creating the best environment for inducing creativity and innovation is the US. It provides ideal atmosphere not only for local people but for foreigners. Silicon Valley is the clear example of supporting my idea. Among three countries which one can be equal or surpass the capability of the US in terms of creating optimal millieu to induce creativity and innovation in the future?

我认为，一个国家的光明未来，取决于如何营造创新改革的国内外环境。成功地为激发创造力而创造最佳环境的典型国家是美国。它不仅为当地人，还为外国人提供了理想的环境。硅谷是证明我的想法的明显例子。在三个国家中，哪个国家在创造未来激发创造力方面能跟与美国匹敌或超过美国呢？