India, Pakistan may stumble into large-scale war, warns US intel report

美国情报报告警告称，印度和巴基斯坦或陷入大规模战争

India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, warns a US intelligence report while exploring the possibilities of miscalculations leading to a war in South Asia.

美国的一份情报报告警告称，印度和巴基斯坦或陷入一场双方都不希望发生的大规模战争。这份报告探讨了误判导致南亚战争的可能性。

The assessment is included in a Global Trends report produced every four years by the US government's National Intelligence Council, released in Washington. The report, released on Wednesday, focuses on both immediate and distant futures and is designed to help policymakers anticipate the forces likely to shape the world in the next five to 20 years.

美国政府的国家情报委员会每四年在华盛顿发布一份全球趋势报告，其中包括上述评估。周三发布的这份报告着眼于近期和遥远的未来，旨在帮助政策制定者预测未来5至20年可能塑造世界格局的力量。

“India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian government judges to be significant,” the report warns.

报告警告称:“印度和巴基斯坦可能会陷入一场双方都不希望发生的大规模战争，尤其是在遭到印度政府认为非常严重的恐 怖袭击之后。”

The ability of some militant outfits to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to retaliate against Islamabad after such an attack, and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself “are likely to persist and may increase” in the next five years, the report adds.

报告还说，一些激进组织发动袭击的能力、新德里在发生此类袭击后对伊 斯兰堡进行报复的决心、以及伊 斯兰堡自卫的决心在未来5年“可能会持续下去并可能提升”。

以下是巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Omar

if goes along with this (war), imagine what will happen to Pakistan?

如果这场战争爆发了，想象一下巴基斯坦会发生什么?

Brownman

Pakistan doesn't have the money for a large-scale war, hence the recent ceasefire. This report was probably written by an intern or a new-hire.

巴基斯坦没钱打大规模战争，所以最近才停火。这份报告可能是新员工写的。

Iqbal bhai

A large-scale war serves the interest of the United States. If it does not start on its own, the US will start it.

印巴爆发大规模战争符合美国的利益。如果他们不动手，美国会挑起这场战争。

Cool

Another reason to stay in Afghanistan?

又一个留在阿富汗的理由?

Abbas Naqvi

The two countries, simply, cannot afford to go to war knowing pretty well that it would only bring total devastation.

这两个国家很清楚，开战只会带来彻底的毁灭，无法承担战争的代价。

Farooq Siddiqui

Pakistan has to live within means i.e. hard times for everyone.

巴基斯坦必须量入为出，如果开战每个人都要受苦。

Wolf

No body can afford war, when you have long open borders between countries. India and Pakistan both are poor countries and will be able decimate each other but there won't be any winner.

国与国之间的边界长期开放，谁也承受不起战争。印度和巴基斯坦都是贫穷的国家，战争会毁掉彼此，但不会有赢家。

Bannuwal

Do we want a war when we have no money

没有钱的时候，我们想要战争吗？

Fareed N

WW1 started out of total confusion. A frustrated young Kashmiri will throw a hand  grenade on a passing military truck. Enough to start a larger conflict.

第一次世界大战是在一片混乱中开始的。一个失意的年轻克什米尔人将手榴弹扔向一辆经过的军用卡车足以引发更大的冲突。

Pakboy

Yup. We all know it. No intelligence is required to know that.

我们都知道，不需要任何情报都能知道。

Alla Bux

How many times this happened?  Who started it each time?  This time too it will happen and the same country will have started it.

这种战争发生过多少次了?

每次都是谁挑起的?

这一次也会发生，而且还会是同一个国家挑起的。

Waheed Rehman, US Patriot

Whoop-de-do, what a storm in a teacup, hy S. Asia regional tensions. The so-called “report” is so illogical, how can a bankrupt country make war on anybody, except itself, period?

真是小题大做啊，炒作南亚地区的紧张局势。所谓的“报告”是如此不合逻辑，一个破产的国家怎么可能向其他国家发动战争?

Kf khan

India doesn't have the courage to wage war against us. It can only suppress Muslims inside its borders.

印度没有勇气对巴基斯坦发动战争。

Ghani K

Does n't matter how big armed forces India has, Pakistan will certainly retaliate. Both countries have nuclear arsenal , an invitation to mutual destruction. Therefore cooler heads must prevail. Stop ingoism.

不管印度的武装部队有多庞大，巴基斯坦肯定会报复。两国都有核武库，发动战争就是互相毁灭。因此，必须保持冷静，停止沙文主义。

AK

US should worry about their own racist war rather than policing the whole world....

美国应该担心他们内部的种族主义战争，而不是监管整个世界....

Viq Saad

This is nothing but to stir doubts and keep neighbors from resolving their issues. Pakistan, and India are powerful if came together and US would never want that.

Pakistan and India are not to heed this report and keep moving in the right direction.

这无非是挑拨离间，阻碍这两个邻国解决问题。如果巴基斯坦、和印度合作，他们就会强大起来，美国永远不希望这样。巴基斯坦和印度不会理会这份报告，继续朝着正确的方向前进。

Raheel

Pakistan can never let is guard down.

巴基斯坦永远不会放松警惕。

Usman

@Brownman, it says Pakistan will defend itself.

巴基斯坦将保卫自己。

Amir

Shame on both countries. Instead of spending the resources and wealth of the nation on welfare of its people we are wasting it killing each other.

这两个国家都是可耻的。不把国家的资源和财富用来造福人民，而是浪费在互相残杀上。

High Thinker

This document implies an intention of US to forge war between Pakistan and India. A dangerous move for the region.

这份报告暗示美国有意挑起巴基斯坦和印度之间的战争。这对该地区来说是危险的。

Zak

India is no match for and is in same category as Pakistan. Even Pakistan is surpassing it in favourable international image.

印度不是的对手，印度和巴基斯坦属于同一级别。就连巴基斯坦的国际形象都比印度好。