新冠病例激增引发人们对印度经济复苏的担忧

Covid surge stokes recovery worries, hits growth forecast

新冠病例激增引发对印度经济复苏的担忧，打击增长预测

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: The surge in Covid-19 cases in several states across the country has stoked worries about the economic recovery under way, investment banks are scaling down their growth projections, while others are voicing concerns over the second wave and its impact on recovery.

新德里/孟买：印度几个邦的新冠病例激增，引发了人们对印度经济复苏的担忧，投资银行正在下调增长预期，而其他机构则对第二波疫情及其对复苏的影响表示担忧。

The second wave swee the country has come at a time when the economy was emerging from the bruising impact of the lockdown imposed last year to prevent spread of the disease.

第二波疫情席卷印度之际，正值印度经济刚刚从去年为防止疫情传播而实施的封锁所造成的沉重冲击中复苏。

A Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy research report said its economists have revised down their overall calendar year real GDP growth forecast to 10.5% from 10.9% previously but it remains above the consensus forecast of 9.4%.

高盛投资组合策略研究公司的一份报告称，该公司的经济学家已将印度全年实际GDP增长预期从此前的10.9%下调至10.5%，但仍高于9.4%的普遍预期。

“Our economists believe that the containment restrictions are likely to be more targeted with hits to specific services (such as food and beverages, leisure and recreation, transport) with limited spillovers into other sectors such as construction and manufacturing,” the Goldman Sachs report said. It added that activity is likely to rebound sharply from the third quarter onwards as containment policies normalise.

高盛的报告称:“我们的经济学家认为，封锁措施可能会更有针对性，针对特定服务(如食品和饮料、休闲娱乐、交通运输)，对建筑业和制造业等其他行业的溢出效应有限。”该报告补充称，随着封锁正常化，经济活动可能从第三季度开始大幅反弹。

On Monday, Japanese investment bank and brokerage Nomura said it was lowering the growth forecast for India to 11.5% from 12.4% in 2021.

周一，日本投资银行和经纪公司野村证券表示，将把2021年印度的增长预期从12.4%下调至11.5%。

A day later, global ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service also cautioned about the impact of the sharp increase in infections on the recovery.

一天后，全球评级机构穆迪投资者服务公司也对病例急剧增加对印度经济复苏的影响发出警告。

Global financial major Barclays said current restrictions on mobility of people in economic hubs like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan may cause a weekly loss of $1.3 billion to GDP.

全球金融巨头巴克莱银行表示，目前对马哈拉施特拉邦、古吉拉特邦、泰米尔纳德邦和拉贾斯坦邦等经济中心人口流动的限制，可能导致每周GDP损失13亿美元。

If the current restrictions remain till May-end, the total cost could add up to about $10.5 billion. Barclays maintained its FY22 GDP growth forecast at 11% but warned “if the curbs are tightened further, then we see modest downside risks”.

如果目前的限制措施持续到5月底，造成的损失可能高达105亿美元左右。巴克莱维持对印度2022财年11%GDP增长的预测，但警告称，“如果进一步收紧限制，我们将看到适度的下行风险”

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Bharat

Country is paying the price of I competent leadership of Modi. Countries with proper planning and execution are better placed in defeated this pandemic

这个国家正在为莫迪的领导付出代价。有适当规划和执行的国家更能战胜这一流行病

VKS

dadiwala and taklu have ruined the country.

卖茶人毁了这个国家

Deviprasad Nayak

India became more poor than Bengladesh first time in the History due to irresponsible PM

莫迪总理不负责任，印度有史以来第一次变得比孟加拉国更穷

Amit Kumar Sharma

When a country as great as India has an illiterate and a bootlicker PM then only God can save India. We need leaders like Arvind Kejriwal to run the country, we need educated and smart politicians.

像印度这样伟大的国家由一个文盲、马屁精总理领导，只有神才能拯救印度。我们需要像阿尔文德·凯杰里瓦尔这样的领导人来管理国家，我们需要有文化的聪明政客。

Vivek !!

First kick off these dam fake farmers...supported by Congress .. They are the ones who don't wear masks , follow social distance and making life miserable for honest tax paying middle class . They are not farmers but middlemen disguised as farmers who are so rich that can survive without working for 4 months... Can middle class citizens who pay taxes live without working for 4 months ?????

先把这些假农民赶出去，他们得到了国大党的支持，他们不戴口罩，不保持社会距离，导致诚实纳税的中产阶级生活悲惨。

他们不是农民，而是伪装成农民的中间人，他们非常富有，连续4个月不工作也能生存。

诚实纳税的中产阶级连续4个月不工作的话还能活下去吗?????

Uday Panchpor

Let us all follow the rules and get out of this mess at the earliest.

我们都要遵守规定，尽早摆脱这种混乱。

Godfather Senior

Only the citizens can break the chain. Let us be more responsible as it is also our duty to obey the rules to avoid any further spread.

只有公民才能打破传播链。我们要负起责任，我们也有责任遵守规定，以避免疫情进一步蔓延。

abhishek parihar

failed govt

失败的印度政府

Tony Stark

why should you worry about growth??? first keep full focus on health and lives of people....

为什么要担心?

首先要关注的是人民的健康和生命....

BHUSHAN KARNIK

India's growing economy was systematically destroyed by economic policies of ruling BJP government. Pandemic further worsened our broken economy. Now economic recovery will depend entirely upon citizens and not government.

印度不断增长的经济被人民党的经济政策系统性地破坏了。疫情进一步恶化了我们支离破碎的经济。现在，经济复苏将完全取决于公民，而不是政府。

Desi

Indian history will remember Modi as the worst ever PM India for centuries to come.

印度历史会记住，莫迪是未来几个世纪最糟糕的印度总理。

sammychennai

first the Moron heading the RBI said covid will not affect the economy and till today that moron has not admitted his mistake...

首先，印度央行的白痴行长说新冠病毒不会影响经济，直到今天，那个白痴还没有承认他的错误…

Bidhan Sarkar

First priority is to win elections...rest doesn't matter

首要任务是赢得选举，其他都不重要

D K D

admist 2nd wave, life is more important than business/economy

第二波疫情来袭，生命比经济更重要

Ram

complete mismanagement by the govt. failed on every front.

economy is in complete doldrums

印度政府管理不善，在各个方面都失败了。

经济完全处于低迷状态

VKS

Illiterate fenku exported 7 crore vaccines when Indians needed it most.

目不识丁的莫迪在印度人最需要疫苗的时候出口了7000万剂疫苗。

Guest

If this is a Pandemic and life of people is more important than economy (We agree on this by imposing lockdowns), then make all covid related test medicines treatment and vaccination free of cost in all private Hospitals.

这是一场大流行，而且人的生命比经济更重要(经过封锁我们达成了这一点共识)，

那么在所有私立医院，所有与新冠相关的测试药物治疗和疫苗接种都应该是免费的。

Harsh Kaul

growth ? Even survival is doubtful for many . Ground realities are simply horrible.

增长?

对许多人来说，是否能生存都是未知数。现实是可怕的。

Diggi

Champagning in Bengal elections is more imporatnt than GDP

西孟加拉选举比GDP更重要

Ashok

Feku says India has Very Huge Forex Stashed in India during last 7 years. Why Feku do not spend for welfare of Poor & needy citizens?

莫迪说，过去7年里，印度积累了大量外汇储备。为什么莫迪不把钱花在穷人的福利上?