Covid-19: Economists see deeper impact of second wave than government

经济学家认为第二波疫情造成的影响比印度官方认为的更严重

NEW DELHI: Within minutes of release of fourth quarter GDP numbers, chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian made a detailed presentation on the economic situation, reminiscent of the pre-budget Economic Survey.

新德里：第四季度GDP数据发布几分钟后，首席经济顾问苏布兰马尼安就经济形势做了详细介绍，让人想起预算前的经济调查。

His message was simple: The impact of the second wave, which has caused significant devastation in terms of lives and livelihood, will not be large. He pointed to several indicators and the global experience to argue his case.

他要传达的信息很简单：第二波疫情的影响不会太大，但在生命和生计方面造成了重大破坏。他指出了几个指标和全球形势来支持其观点。

RBI too seems to be on the same page, which also expects a muted impact of the second wave, that may be confined to the April-June quarter with a possibility of a spill over to July.

印度储备银行似乎也持同样的观点，也预计第二波疫情造成的影响会较小，可能仅限于4 - 6月季度，有可能持续到7月。

But economists in the private sector as well as international agencies are less upbeat, with state-run SBI slashing its growth projection from 11% before the second wave hit India to 7.9% now — a three percentage point cut (or 28% lower than original projection). Similarly, Paris-based OECD has lowered its estimate from 12.6% to 9.9%.

但私营部门和国际机构的经济学家就不那么乐观了，印度国家银行(SBI)将其增长预期从第二波疫情冲击印度前的11%下调至现在的7.9%，降幅为3个百分点(比最初的预期低28%)。同样，总部位于巴黎的经合组织也将其预期从12.6%下调至9.9%。

“India is projected to be the fastest-growing G20 economy in 2021 — but also the one, which is the furthest away from its pre-crisis GDP trend. Pent-up demand for consumer durables and exports of manufacturing goods and services will act favourably, but other components will be far less supportive,” the think tank said in its overall assessment.

该智库在总体评估中表示：“到2021年，印度预计将成为G20集团中增长最快的经济体，但也是偏离危机前GDP增长趋势最远的经济体。耐用品、制造业产品和服务出口等被压抑的需求将发挥积极作用，但其他部分的支撑作用将小得多。”

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Quhesobi test

We have been living under a curse ever since Feku came to power in 2014. Remarkably, the recent record-breaking "achievements" are reached by Feku in 7 years what Congress and NDA-1 couldn't in 67 years.

自莫迪2014年上台以来，我们一直生活在诅咒之中。值得注意的是，莫迪在7年的时间里取得了破纪录的“成就”，国大党在67年里都没能做到。

Go Corona Go

Krishnamurthy and SBI will parrot whatever the govt. dictates them too. International rating agencies will give a better picture and will present their figures without any Bias.

苏布兰马尼安和印度央行都是按政府的要求发表看法的，政府让他们说什么就说什么。国际评级机构没有偏见，给出的数据比较客观。

Manohar Joshi

In 7 years, BJP under RSS and Modi did what all other previous governments couldn't achieve in 70 years.

在7年的时间里，人民党在RSS和莫迪的领导下完成了历届政府在70年里无法完成的事情。

Sunny

The reality is, India is on verge of collapse, only riches and politician with their families are doing well.

现实是，印度经济正处于崩 溃的边缘，只有富人和政客及其家人过得好。

Ghani Khan PAK

India is facing worst situation when it comes to daily wage earners. During lock down they have no income to feed their families.

印度工薪阶层正面临着最糟糕的状况。在封锁期间，他们没有收入养活家人。

Nate

This worthless buffoon is still barking about how great the Indian economy will be. Truth is, none of his previous predictions have come true, not by a mile. This moron should’ve been fired ages ago, except the rest of this clownish government is probably worse. The last 7 years have been a tragedy for India. Indian economy is in critical state, hurtling towards the precipice...

这个毫无价值的小丑还在叫嚷印度经济会有多好。事实是，他之前的预言都没有实现，绝对没有。这个白痴早该被解雇了。过去7年对印度来说是一场悲剧。印度经济正处于危急状态，正奔向悬崖……

PURE SOULS

this government never gives real picture of economy every thing is manuplated by their ministry. biggest liers ever

这届印度政府从来没有透露经济的真实情况，每件事都是由他们的部门操纵的，大骗子

chandanareddy2021

The greatest tragedy to happen to india is this uneducated person pretending to be the new indian mahatma gandhi. So sad . So sad to see that indian bhakta are so blind and follow him like pied piper

印度最大的悲剧是这个没受过教育的人假装成新的圣雄甘地。看到印度人如此盲目地追随他，真可悲

Iron Dome

India has economists… i thiught country was left ith jokers since smart people go to US/Canada every month

印度有经济学家？我以为这个国家剩下的是小丑，因为聪明人都去美国和加拿大了

Govind J

Who cares about economists... If Corona Vijeta Chakrawarty Modiji and his govt are saying there is less impact, then it means there is less impact... what if on ground level businesses are ruined and people are unemployed...

谁会在乎经济学家说的……如果莫迪和他的政府说影响小，那就意味着影响小…底层的企业破产，人们失业又如何……

Deviprasad Nayak

India is the only worst covid country among the poor countries

印度是贫穷国家中疫情最严重的国家

Arun Royappan

Nothing is bad under godi govt ....inflation are high, petrol price sky rocketing , job loss in both formal and informal sector .....but cha cha team saying all is good ....don't believe their lies

在莫迪政府领导下，一切都好....通货膨胀率高，汽油价格飞涨，正式和非正式部门都有失业.....但是卖茶人团队说一切都很好....不要相信他们的谎言

Melman const

A report says 90% of population become poor. Even Kenya started giving food aid to India.

一份报告称，印度90%的人口都变穷了，甚至肯尼亚也开始向印度提供粮食援助

Sanjoy Pandey

All said and done, the only way is to step up vaccination.

总而言之，唯一的办法就是加快疫苗接种。

Trues Win

Modi & Co does not have the habit of telling truth. The figures which they present are purely imaginary .

Even before Corona , unemployment problem in this country is raging and price have sky rocketed.

莫迪向来不说实话。他们公布的数据纯粹是虚构的。

甚至在疫情爆发之前，这个国家的失业问题就已经非常严重，物价飞涨。

Guest

It will take minimum 3 years to reach the GDP output of 2018-19.

至少需要3年时间印度GDP才能恢复2018-2019财年的水平。

Chandraketu Sahu

everyone knows that economy is badly hit...

大家都知道经济受到了严重打击

hecod

Modiji wont stop till every indian (except adanis and ambanis) becomes destitute beggar.His govt works for ultrarich.For avg indians,modiji sells hinduism and nationalism.

莫迪不会收手，除非所有印度人(除了阿达尼和安巴尼)变成赤贫的乞丐。莫迪政府为超级富豪服务。对普通印度人，莫迪兜售印度教和民族主义。

himwant prasad

India's economy saved bcz of NaMo. Else it would have been in much bad shape.

莫迪拯救了印度经济，否则目前的状况会很糟糕。

Sandeep Raina

Here experts If our economy bounces back as it will then be ready to committ Suicide with your other haters and experts.

专家们，如果经济法反弹，那就准备好自杀谢罪吧