Second Covid wave may leave Rs 2 lakh crore dent on economic output: RBI

印度央行：第二波疫情或给经济产出造成2万亿卢比的损失

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has estimated that the second wave may result in a Rs 2-lakh-crore loss in output during the current fiscal, in what is the first such exercise conducted by the central bank or the government.

孟买：印度储备银行估计，在本财年，第二波疫情或给经济产出造成2万亿卢比的损失。这是央行首次作出这样的预测。

A loss of economic output may not have a direct corelation with the GDP, but points to some loss in the value-addition across the economy. Already, several agencies, including the RBI, have lowered growth projections for the year.

经济产出损失可能与GDP没有直接关系，却意味着整个经济中附加值的损失。包括印度储备银行在内的几家机构已经下调了今年的增长预期。

The RBI’s output loss is factored into its revised GDP forecast in the latest monetary policy estimates, where it slashed growth projections from 10.5% to 9.5%. The state of the economy report released on Wednesday said the projection was on the assumption that real GDP will grow by 18.5% in the first quarter, which is on a much lower base given the contraction last year.

在最新的货币政策估算中，印度储备银行的产出损失被计入了其修正后的GDP预测，将增长预测从10.5%下调至9.5%。周三公布的经济状况报告称，这一预测是基于第一季度实际GDP增长18.5%的假设，考虑到去年的收缩，这一基数要低得多。

Providing more details on the economic impact of the second wave, the RBI said the rate of decline in deposits has been higher, indicating that household savings have dropped in sharp contrast to the first wave. “Additionally, currency holding with the public has also decelerated significantly to 1.7% during April 2021 in comparison to the growth of 3.5% a year ago, implying heavy outgo towards Covid-induced medical expenditure.”

印度储备银行提供了关于第二波经济影响的更多细节，称存款的下降速度更快，表明家庭储蓄下降与第一波疫情期间形成了鲜明对比。“此外，公众持有的货币在2021年4月也大幅降低至1.7%，而一年前的增长为3.5%，这意味着新冠疫情导致了大额医疗支出。”

It said the second wave’s toll is higher due to the impact on domestic demand as several aspects of aggregate supply, such as agriculture and contactless services, are holding, while industrial production and exports have surged amid pandemic protocols. “Going forward, the speed and scale of vaccination will shape the path of recovery,” the report said.

印度储备银行表示，由于农业和非接触式服务等总供给的若干方面保持不变，而工业生产和出口大幅增长，第二波疫情造成的损失更高。报告称:“今后，疫苗接种的速度和规模将决定复苏的道路。”

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

kg p

Does Modi govt have any idea deep impact of covid ? how many daily wage labor class people pushed to starvation ?impact on soceity, various industrial sectors and business, small shops, effects on Sports ,Film Industry entertainment, Hotels, travel and tourism ? Please ask Modi to present details report in parliament.

莫迪政府对新冠肺炎的深远影响有何看法?

有多少日薪工人挨饿?

对社会、各行业，小商店有何影响

对体育，电影娱乐，酒店和旅游业有何影响?

请莫迪向议会提交详细报告。

Sharad Gupta

20 Lac Crore financial stimulus was the biggest joke. Waive GST, Income Tax and get down the petrol prices to hive some relief to the people.

20万亿卢比的财政刺激是最大的笑话。免除商品及服务税、所得税，降低汽油价格，为人民提供一些救济吧。

Quhesobi

We have been living under a curse ever since Feku came to power in 2014. As a matter of fact, we had much lower fuel prices even when crude oil topped $147/bbl in 2008. Furthermore, our economic growth has hit 74-year low, and we now even fall behind Bangladesh in GDP per capita and the Global Hunger Index.

自莫迪2014年上台以来，我们一直生活在诅咒之下。事实上，当2008年原油价格达到147美元/桶时，我们的燃料价格还是很低的。此外，我们的经济增长已经降到74年来的最低水平，我们现在的人均GDP和全球饥饿指数甚至落后于孟加拉国。

Bhartiya Nagrik

Indian govt, media and people are indulged in politics, religion, cast, subsidy ,reservations etc.... With so many political parties India has become place of loot and corruption. 100 of political parties are burden for this country. Due to vote bank politics laws are not formed for population control. In this scenario it is impossible to prosper for India.

印度政府、媒体和人民沉迷于政治、宗教、种姓、补贴、预留制等....有这么多的政党，印度已经变成了腐 败之地。

所有政党都是这个国家的负担。由于票仓政治，没有出台控制人口的法律。

在这种情况下，印度不可能繁荣。

Vanya Pranavi

why are you telling us..ask damsel Finance Minister..

为什么要告诉我们，去问财政部长

Insaan first

I don't know about anything else, but the economy sure looks like it has regressed more than 70 years based on the increase in extreme poverty.

由于极端贫困的增加，经济看起来倒退了70多年。

Gaurav Kukreja

Just like the Death Count, this number might also be highly Inaccurate. No one Trusts any number coming out of this Failed Government anymore.

和死亡数据一样，这个数字可能也不准确，没人再相信这个失败政府公布的数据了。

Subbu Mani

RBI looks more of a BJP news covering bulletin.

印度储备银行看起来更像是人民党的喉舌。

ronny b

The government could nothandled the second covid wave not so adequately

印度政府无法妥善应对第二波疫情

Ankush

Feku and his yes men should resign immediately, if they know accept their massive failure to control covid.

莫迪和他的跟班们应该立即辞职，如果他们承认在控制新冠疫情方面的巨大失败。

Uday Panchpor

We Indian have the ability to strike back. One feels that this gap can be and would be bridged in the coming months.

我们印度人有能力反击，这一缺口可以而且将在未来几个月弥合。

Giant Frog

The effect of lockdowns on economy will be massive. Job losses would be in millions. Small businesses would be winding up in millions too. The recovery will be slow and long imo. Expecing a V shaped bounce back will look possible only in dreams.

封锁对经济的影响将是巨大的，失业人数将达数百万，数以百万计的小企业将破产。在我看来，复苏将是缓慢而漫长的。期待V型复苏，似乎只有在梦里才有可能。

Paramjit Singh

retail inflation was 6.3% in April and now may be more. Bank interest rates are less than 5%. As per inflation, bank interests should be. 1.5 % more than inflation.

Now RBI is trapped

4月份零售通胀为6.3%，现在可能更高。

银行利率低于5%。按照通货膨胀率，银行利率应该比通货膨胀高出1.5%。

现在印度储备银行陷入困境了

protestor

Are you sure? Modi thinks we are already past 5 trillion. He thinks when petrol reaches 500 we’ll be doing even better. We have the worst govt to handle a crisis like this.

确定吗？

莫迪认为我们的经济规模已经超过5万亿了。

他认为当汽油价格达到500卢比时，我们会做得更好。

最糟糕的政府在应对这样的危机。

Jigyasu

9 million vaccinations a day!! Impossible. If there is one area where I will say that the Modi govt mucked up, it is vaccine production.

每天接种900万剂疫苗！

这是不可能的。如果有一个领域是莫迪政府搞砸的，那就是疫苗生产。

TVKOn

RBI and governament (center and state) should work together to plan and execute the mission "fix the dent"

印度储备银行和政府(中央和邦)应该共同计划和执行“弥补缺口”的任务。

Raj S

We must wear mask and vaccinate and work very very hard to keep our country running and pull it out of this and help it reach new height

我们必须戴好口罩，接种疫苗，努力工作，让我们的国家继续运转，使经济走出困境，推动经济达到新的高度

Ashis Mitra

Irrespective of economic condition deposits will dip if you give an interst of 5.25% in FDs for 5 years.

无论经济状况如何，就算5年期定期存款利息给5.25%，存款都会减少。

Varadarajan Sitaraman

with the lethargic.and money minded attitude of various state governments, the cases are increasing last 3 days. We are in for 3rd wave if this continues.

由于各邦政府对金钱的重视，最近3天病例还在增加。如果这种情况继续下去，我们将面临第三波疫情。

Zillionaire

More waves are coming. Be smart and Do Well

下一波疫情即将到来。聪明点，好好干