印度经济需要增长8-10%才能达到疫情前的水平

India needs to grow 8-10% to reach pre-pandemic levels

印度需要增长8-10%才能达到疫情前的水平

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy might be able to reach the pre-pandemic level if it grows in 8-10% range as several high frequency indicators have reached the pre-pandemic levels, experts have said.

新德里：专家表示，由于几个高频指标已经达到疫情前的水平，如果印度经济增长在8-10%范围内，印度经济或许能够达到疫情前的水平。

The RBI expects the economy to grow by 9.5% in the current fiscal which ends in March. IMF on Wednesday slashed India’s GDP growth estimate for FY22 to 9.5% from its earlier projection of 12.5%. At these rates, Indian economy will be able to claw back to pre-pandemic levels.

印度央行预计，在截至3月的当前财政年度，印度经济将增长9.5%。IMF周三将印度2022财年GDP增长预期从此前的12.5%下调至9.5%。按照这样的速度，印度经济能够恢复到疫情前的水平。

Chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian told TOI in an interview that the GDP growth rate in the current fiscal won’t be very much off compared to the estimate of 10.5% growth.

首席经济顾问Krishnamurthy Subramanian在接受《印度时报》采访时表示，与预计的10.5%的增长速度相比，当前财政年度的GDP增长速度不会有太大差距。

“At this rate, India would be able to recoup the FY21 GDP loss, it is a matter of debate of what would be the permanent loss in output,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI.

印度国家银行集团首席经济顾问Soumya Kanti Ghosh表示：“按照这样的速度，印度能够弥补2021财年的GDP损失，关于产出的永久性损失是一个有争论的问题。”

“The issue is, however, when India can reach the prepandemic levels. Such a level could be either in economic activity or in level of pre-pandemic output. While some of the high frequency indicators are already back to pre-pandemic levels, it might take much longer to reach the FY20 pre pandemic output levels,” said Ghosh.

Ghosh说：“然而，问题是印度何时能达到疫情前的水平。这种水平可以是经济活动，也可以是疫情前的产出水平。虽然一些高频指标已经恢复到疫情前的水平，但要达到2020财年的产出水平可能需要更长的时间。”

Subramanian had also said that several high frequency indicators at the macro level are actually exhibiting V-patterns. He also said India is the only country in the world, which has shown two consecutive quarters of positives, while no other country had done that amid the pandemic.

Subramanian还表示，宏观层面的几个高频指标实际上呈现出v型。他还说，印度是世界上唯一一个连续两个季度显示正增长的国家，而其他国家在疫情期间没有。

“We expect FY23 growth to be between 6.5% to 7% and thereby accelerate from there towards 7% to 7.5% range,” Subramanian had said.

Subramanian表示：“我们预计2023财年的增长将在6.5%至7%之间，并因此加速至7%至7.5%的区间。”

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla

We trust you Dr.Krishnamurthy Subramnayan, Ph.D Chicago University, IIT, IIM. that you can deliver, already IMF has predicted 9.5% growth for India in 2022, at a time where world growth rate is expected to be 6%.

我们相信芝加哥大学、印度理工学院、印度管理学院的krishnamurthy Subramnayan博士。国际货币基金组织已经预测印度在2022年的经济增长率为9.5%，而世界经济增长率预计为6%。

Deepak

Hey fake doctor, how come you are quoting IMF now? When IMF says India's economy will grow slowly, you had condemned it saying all being down by congress!!!

嘿，假博士，你现在怎么引用国际货币基金组织的话? 国际货币基金组织说印度经济将缓慢增长时，你们谴责说这都是国大党造成的!!

Niti De

Double Digit Growth is Possible with just 1-Single law!!

如果实行一胎政策，印度经济有可能实现2位数增长！

Niti De

India can easily Achieve Double Digit Growth Rate!! badly Need Just 1-Single Law!!

印度可以轻松实现两位数增长率

急需实行一胎政策!!

Balachandran Nair

I think it will take time to regain the strength in economy as Pandemic has destroyed the economies of all countries

我认为，由于疫情严重打击了各国的经济，恢复经济实力需要时间

Manmit

This govt is doing well on economic front also with strong foundation building as compare to previous one where only % was a matter on papers.

这届印度政府在经济方面也做得很好，基础建设也很坚实，而对于前任政府，经济增长率只是纸面上的问题。

Sallu Shaikh

GDP is -7%. Andh bakth where is ur brain

GDP增长率是-7%。你的脑子在哪里？

PROUD INDIAN

Joke tha kya bhakt?

你在开玩笑嘛？

Deepak

But will Modi allow India to grow? Just like he destroyed our economy with Demonitization, hafazard implementation of GST and Lockdown, he will come up with a new scheme to bring the economy down!!!. Even now if excess fuel taxes are withdrawn to 2014 level, economy will grow much faster.

莫迪会允许印度发展吗？他之前实行废钞令、草率实施商品及服务税、又实行封锁，摧毁了我们的经济，他还会想出一个新计划来搞垮经济！

即使是现在，如果燃油税回到2014年的水平，经济增长也会快得多。

Emancipated Cavalier

Fuel prices are here to stay, switch to Electric Vehicles

燃料价格将保持不变，转向电动汽车吧

Mark

Not possible under Modis oppressive era of mass destruction and wrath. Let's pray it comes to end soon

在莫迪具有大规模杀伤性和愤怒的压迫时代，这是不可能的。让我们祈祷这个时代快点结束吧

BlindBhakt

Measure the growth rate of Ambani, Adani. Under Modi it must have reached a1000 pct. Govt is planning to divest more so that these 2 can flourish.

算一下安巴尼、阿达尼的财富增长率吧。在莫迪的领导下，他们的财富增长率达到了1000%。印度政府计划剥离更多资产，这样这两个人的身价才能暴涨。

Shekhar

If u have so much hatred for Ambanis, Adanis etc then don't expect job creation. What if they make profit if they also support thousands of families. After all they are also doing charity. They invest and create more jobs and also enjoy some money.

如果你真么仇恨安巴尼、阿达尼等人，那就别指望创造就业了。如果他们既能赚钱又能养活成千上万的家庭呢。毕竟他们也在做慈善。他们投资并创造更多的就业机会，同时也享受财富。

khotpal

Modi does not care about indians.He cares only about adanis and ambanis. Too much wealth in hands of modi's favourite children will end up badly for nation's unity.

莫迪不关心印度人。他只关心阿达尼和安巴尼。莫迪最喜欢的孩子手中有太多的财富，这对国家团结来说是不利的。

Balachandran Nair

Pandemic totally destroyed the world economy and it will take years to regain it's normal shape

疫情彻底摧毁了世界经济，需要数年时间才能恢复正常

Deepak

But our growth in December 2019 was 4.9%!!!

但是我们在2019年12月的增长率是4.9%

C S

And pre pandemic growth was 3.5%.

印度在疫情爆发前的增长率是3.5%。

Balachandran Nair

It is natural that the economy of all countries shrunk during the Pandemic and it will take time to regain it regain it