India’s GDP growth in 2021-22 seen at 8.3%, says World Bank report

世界银行的报告：预计印度2021-2022财年的GDP增长率为8.3%

NEW DELHI: India’s economy, South Asia’s largest, is expected to grow by 8.3% in the fiscal year 2021-22, aided by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing, according to the latest report from the World Bank and backed shifting to a services sector-led growth model for the region to strengthen the recovery.

新德里：根据世界银行的最新报告，在公共投资增加和促进制造业发展的激励措施的推动下，南亚最大的经济体-印度预计在2021-2022财年增长8.3%，并支持该地区转向以服务业为主导的增长模式，以加强复苏。

“Real GDP in the current fiscal year is expected to grow by 8.3%, which is consistent with the last forecast from June 2021, and a 1.8 percentage point downward revision from the forecast in March 2021,” said the World Bank’s Fall 2021 economic update for South Asia. Growth is forecast to moderate to 7.5% next year. The Reserve Bank of India estimates GDP growth to be 9.5% in the current fiscal year while government officials say it could be closer to 10% given the sharp recovery that is underway. The acceleration in vaccination has also lent comfort to a more sustained recovery.

世界银行在南亚2021年秋季经济更新中表示：“本财年实际GDP预计增长8.3%，与2021年6月的上一次预测一致，比2021年3月的预测下调了1.8个百分点。”预计明年的增长将放缓至7.5%。印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)估计，本财年印度GDP增速为9.5%，而政府官员则表示，鉴于印度经济正在迅速复苏，这一增速可能接近10%。疫苗接种的加速也为更持久的复苏提供了支持

It said that the projected growth is supported by an increase in public investment to boost domestic demand and production-linked incentive schemes to boost manufacturing.

报告称，预计的增长受增加公共投资以提振国内需求和促进制造业的生产相关激励计划的支持。

“Over the next two years, as the base effect fades, growth is expected to stabilize at around 7%, aided by structural reforms to ease supply-side constraints andinfrastructure investment. In the medium term, uncertainty around asset-quality deterioration from the pandemic, higher-than-expected inflation, and slow recovery in the informal sector are the main downside risks,” according to the report.

报告称：“在未来两年，随着基数效应消退，在缓解供给方约束和基础设施投资的结构性改革的帮助下，预计增长将稳定在7%左右。从中期来看，疫情导致的资产质量恶化的不确定性、高于预期的通胀以及非正规部门复苏缓慢是主要的下行风险。”

Hans Timmer, World Bank’s chief economist for South Asia said the current GDP growth projection of 8.3% is in line with a global report (Global Economic Prospects) that the World Bank published in June of this year, after the health crisis.

世界银行南亚地区首席经济学家Hans Timmer表示，目前8.3%的GDP增长预测与世界银行今年6月在危机后发布的一份全球报告(《全球经济展望》)相符。

“Recent economic data are still consistent with that number, in our view. Throughout the pandemic, we have used a range for India’s growth this year from 7.5% - 12.5%%, because of the uncertainties. The latest numbers indicate that we are at the lower end of that range,” Timmer told TOI over email.

Timmer 过电子邮件告诉《印度时报》：“在我们看来，最近的经济数据仍然与这个数字相符。在整个疫情期间，由于存在不确定性，我们将印度今年的增长区间定为7.5%至12.5%。”

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

User Shiny

Bad news for pappu followers

这对拉胡尔追随者来说是个坏消息

Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla

India GDP

IMF prediction

2025 - 4.2 trillion $

2024 - 3.88 trillion $

2023 - 3.59 trillion $

2022 - 3.31 trillion $

IMF Actual

2021 - 3.05 trillion $(projected - 9.5% growth rate)

2020 - 2.71 trillion $(-ve growth - pandemic effect)

2019 - 2.87 trillion $(World 6th Position)

印度GDP

国际货币基金组织预测

2025年：4.2万亿美元

2024年：3.88万亿美元

2023年：3.59万亿美元

2022年：3.31万亿美元

实际

2021年：3.05万亿美元(预计- 9.5%的增长率)

2020年：2.71万亿美元(负经济增长-疫情效应)

2019年：2.87万亿美元(世界第6位)

Swapnil Rao

Our Bharatiya Business Acumen, Hardwork and Business Friendly environment of present government responsible for this great performance in spite of covid crisis

印度人民党有敏锐的商业头脑，勤奋工作，印度的商业环境友好，在新冠危机中取得了如此出色的成绩

Angshuman Moitra

Of there is no third wave, then the GDP growth will be much higher

如果没有第三波疫情，那么GDP增长率将会高得多

Rambo Junior

After a month World Bank will once again update the growth projection to 9 or 10% for india . Make note of my words

一个月后，世界银行会再次将印度的增长预测更新为9%或10%。把我的话记下来

Sudhakar Rao

While so many countries are in MINUS we already reached 8.3% .

很多国家都是负增长，而我们的增长率已经达到了8.3%

Navnit

With worst phase of covid(2nd wave) in this year, we are doing considerably a reasonable job with this growth percentage.

在今年新冠疫情最严重的时期(第二波)，我们的增长率相当不错。

Nationalist

So, still it will be less 15% than the GDP of 2018... Nirmala Sitaraman should be dismissed as FM immediatelly...

仍然会比2018年的GDP少15%。应该立即解除西塔拉曼的印度财政部长职务…

Indian

Middle class anyway strangulated and stagnated. We don't expect much.

无论如何中产阶级都会被扼杀。期望不要太高。

Quhesobi

As a matter of fact, after 7 years of Feku's misrule, we now even fall behind Bangladesh in GDP per capita and the Global Hunger Index. As we all know, the problem we are facing is that Feku will continue to loot the common man like there is no tomorrow and the top 0.01% will get even richer along the way. In short, every country has the super-rich but in India, the super-rich have a country. #ResignModi

事实上，经过莫迪7年的暴 政，我们现在的人均GDP和全球饥饿指数甚至落后于孟加拉国。众所周知，我们面临的问题是莫迪会继续压榨普通人，好像没有明天一样，最富有的0.01%的人会越来越富有。简而言之，每个国家都有超级富豪，但在印度，超级富豪拥有整个国家。莫迪辞职！

Droid

Are we going to overtake Bangladesh or not?

我们会不会超过孟加拉国?

HappyTimes User

This growth projection of 8.3% is lower than what was projected just a couple of months back. There's definitely a slump in demand. Also unemployment figures are looking dismal n alarming. There's also a lot of underemployment.

这个8.3%的增长预期低于几个月前的预测，需求肯定在下降。此外，失业人数也令人担忧。还有很多人失业。需要创造新的就业机会来刺激需求。

Suresh Kumar

Good. It seems that World Bank will revise the projection soon to make India's growth rate above 9%

很好，世界银行似乎很快就会修正这一预测，使印度的增长率超过9%

Timur Kumar

indian gdp is not even achieved 2019 levels.....

印度GDP甚至还没有达到2019年的水平.......

Kadhu

Now Imran Khan will say that Pakistan at growing at 25%.

现在伊姆兰·汗会说巴基斯坦的增长率达到了25%。

Kishor Velayudhan

WHEN CHINA & PAKISTAN READ THIS THEY WILL BLEED

巴基斯坦人读到这篇文章时，会气到吐血

A Singh

Recovery from COVID and normalizing of markets globally, ideally GDP should have been more.

从新冠疫情恢复到全球市场正常化，理想情况下GDP增速应该更高。

Pc

Meanwhile, middle class families are milked so much, that actual GDP growth status is irrelevant. The Rich gets Tax deductions, the poor gets Subsidies and the middle class only gets middle finger.

与此同时，印度的中产阶级家庭被压榨得太多，实际GDP增长状况与他们无关。富人得到了减税，穷人得到了补贴，而中产阶级什么都没有获得。

Bharat Sharma

Last year fall was 21% and now after reopening only 8% , this even doesnt recover the losses due to covid mismanagement.

去年的GDP降幅为21%，现在重新开放后增速仅为8%，这甚至无法弥补因疫情控制不善造成的损失。

Rambharosey

Feku fail..send him to jail

莫迪失败了，把他送进监 狱

Divyesh

India has potential to recover at highest rate in world.

印度经济有潜力以全世界最快的速度复苏。